Is Cole Palmer approaching his best form again?
Two-thirds of the 2025/2026 Premier League season are now behind us. There are still 39 points up for grabs, and the two clubs featured in our Chelsea vs. Leeds tip have hit form in recent weeks.
Since Liam Rosenior moved from Strasbourg Alsace to Stamford Bridge, the Londoners have achieved convincing results (7W, 2D). With a win in the Chelsea vs. Leeds prediction, the 41-year-old could become the first Blues head coach since Maurizio Sarri to win his first three PL matches at Stamford Bridge.
The English head coach is getting a boost from the best betting providers in the form of Chelsea – Leeds betting odds of less than 1.60. Cole Palmer is also euphoric and strengthened since his hat trick in the last Premier League game against Wolverhampton (3-1).
Unlike in previous seasons, the playmaker feels more support from his teammates and the system – taking some of the pressure off the Premier League’s top scorer of the 2023/2024 season (22 goals, 11 assists). However, the visitors from West Yorkshire are also bringing momentum with them.
Daniel Farke and his team won a crucial match against Nottingham Forest (3-1) on the last matchday, giving themselves some breathing room at the bottom of the table. A nine-point lead over the relegation zone is reassuring for the Whites, who are in good form with only two defeats in their last twelve Premier League matches.
The individual quality of the Blues is higher – no question. In addition, the Peacocks have won only two of their last 25 Premier League away games (6D, 17L).
Chelsea – Leeds Head-to-head record / H2H record
The visitors would naturally love to repeat their 3-1 win from the first half of the season. If that were the case, the Peacocks would win both Premier League games against the Blues in a single season for the first time since the 1991/1992 season.
However, a revenge victory for Rosenior’s side is more likely. Chelsea have scored at least three goals in five of their nine competitive games under the 41-year-old head coach. Furthermore, no other PL team has earned more expected goals than the Blues (11.13 xG) in the four rounds of matches since his arrival at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea – Leeds Tip
However, the hosts still have work to do when it comes to defending. Chelsea conceded 6.73 expected goals in their first four PL games under Rosenior, placing them 13th in the league. Leeds defended their own goal a little more consistently during this period (6.35 xGA).
The Blues’ attacking play has been extremely potent since the start of the season. With the exception of Brentford (0.16 xG/shot), no team in the top English division has averaged better scoring opportunities than the fifth-placed team (0.14 xG/shot).
The level and quality of play in the attacking third could once again mask some minor defensive lapses against Leeds. However, the visitors have a quality from set pieces that should cause Chelsea concern. Only Arsenal (15) have scored more goals from set pieces than the Whites (12) so far this season. This high figure is supported by the fourth-best expected goals from set pieces (10.59 set-piece xG) in the league.
