A cheerful Saturday evening in the cathedral city?

For the fourth time this Bundesliga season, 1. FC Cologne will play a top match on Saturday evening. However, their record so far has been disastrous, with all three previous Saturday matches ending in defeat. Coach Lukas Kwasniok’s team will now do everything in their power to turn this statistic on its head in the 11th matchday of the Bundesliga.

However, Eintracht Frankfurt is a tough opponent, having recently remained unbeaten in four consecutive matches for the first time this Bundesliga season and not wanting to lose touch with the top four. The ingredients for an interesting, exciting, and hopefully lively top match are in place. It remains to be seen which Cologne vs. Frankfurt tip will ultimately pay off.

On paper, the visitors from the Main metropolis have the advantage. In the standings, SGE are currently two places and three points ahead of the Billy Goats from the cathedral city, who celebrated a 4-1 win against 1. FC Köln in their most recent home game three weeks ago. In general, ten goals scored by Effzeh in four home games are a first argument why I am pushing for a high-scoring game in the Cologne vs. Frankfurt duel.

This assumption is supported by the fact that in the top five European leagues, only FC Bayern (3.0) has scored more away goals on average than Toppmöller’s team (2.6) to date. Although the head coach has since taken a much more sober approach with his players, at least three goals after 90 minutes are quite likely.

Cologne vs. Frankfurt AI prediction

More than half of all AI Bundesliga predictions made so far have been correct (49/90). For the upcoming traditional duel between Cologne and Frankfurt, the AI prediction is quite clearly pointing to an away win. The probability of this happening is estimated at 49.1%, which actually implies betting odds of 2.03.

Cologne – Statistics & current form

The initial conclusion for 1. FC Cologne is quite positive. Fourteen points from ten games and ninth place in the table are very respectable, especially as the newly promoted team has already built up a small cushion of seven points above the relegation zone.

Cologne’s offense has scored in all home games so far

Before the international break, however, the Cathedral City team suffered a disappointing 1-3 defeat in the Rhineland derby against Borussia Mönchengladbach. Across all competitions, it was their third defeat in their last four competitive games. Only at home against HSV did they manage a 4-1 win, which was also on shaky ground for a long time and was only increased by a two-man advantage.

Incidentally, Saturday evening will see the Billy Goats play only their fifth Bundesliga home game of the season. In the four previous encounters in front of their home crowd, a whopping 15 goals were scored, an average of almost four per game. Including the DFB Cup, four out of five Effzeh home games would have gone over 2.5. Because coach Kwasniok wants to see an offensive, courageous style of play from his protégés and the individual quality in attack is definitely there, the odds for over 2.5 between Cologne and Frankfurt should definitely be added to the betting slip.

If you’re even speculating that Marvin Schwäbe will have to fish at least one ball out of the net in both halves for the Rhinelanders – as he did in Gladbach – you can get odds of 2.65 at Betano.

Frankfurt – Statistics & current form

Eintracht Frankfurt is difficult to pin down at the moment. While the Hessians defined themselves at the start of the season with their strong offense and wild but successful soccer, conservative pragmatism has now taken hold on the Main. Several weeks ago, coach Dino Toppmöller switched to a much more defensive back three, which has paid off in terms of greater stability, but has also come at the expense of the team’s attacking efforts.

Frankfurt scores an average of 2.6 goals per away game

Eintracht has only managed to score more than one goal in one of its last six competitive games. In particular, the narrow 1-0 home win against FSV Mainz 05 two weeks ago could be classified as “flattering.” In the first half, the Champions League participant had just one shot on goal. Despite five consecutive matches with under 2.5 goals across all competitions, my prediction for Saturday’s match between Cologne and Frankfurt is for at least three goals in regular time. This is also supported by the 13 goals already scored in the first five Bundesliga away games this season. Four times, the over 2.5 would have been successful! There have never been fewer than two goals.

However, set pieces could be a big asset for SGE this weekend. After all, Cologne conceded ten of their 15 goals from set pieces. Since data recording began in the 2004/05 season, no other Bundesliga team has conceded more goals from set pieces after ten matchdays than Effzeh currently has.

Hesse will have to be careful in the final stages, however, as Cologne lead the league rankings with eight goals in the last 15 minutes. The Eagles themselves have conceded seven goals shortly before the end. It may therefore be an option to consider the Cologne vs. Frankfurt odds for a second half with more goals.

Cologne – Frankfurt Head-to-head record / H2H balance

1. FC Köln has not lost any of its last six Bundesliga games against Eintracht Frankfurt. There have been three wins and three draws during this period. At home, the record is even more impressive from the perspective of the Cathedral City team. In fact, the Billy Goats have lost only one of their 17 Bundesliga home games against their upcoming opponents from the Rhine-Main area.

Recently, there have been three Bundesliga home wins in a row without conceding a goal. Looking back at the last nine encounters, the over 2.5 has only come true once. In my opinion, at least that should change on Saturday evening!

Cologne – Frankfurt Tip

Cologne and Frankfurt are among the top 10 not only in the all-time Bundesliga table, but also in the current Bundesliga standings. The fact that the match is being played as the top game on Saturday evening comes as something of a surprise, given that there is a blockbuster match between Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart. The Rhinelanders in particular would certainly have preferred any other fixture date, as Kwasniok’s team has lost all three of its Saturday evening games this season. Effzeh has lost seven of its last ten Bundesliga games on Saturday.

I could well imagine that the match on matchday 11 will also tip in favor of Eintracht, who are unbeaten in four consecutive league games and score almost three goals per game on average at home. Cologne have lost three of their last four competitive games and have shown some weaknesses in defense.

In my opinion, however, it is more interesting than a three-way bet to place a bet on over 2.5 goals between Cologne and Frankfurt.