Can Effzeh win the clash of the promoted teams?

Hamburger SV has to play on a Sunday for the fourth time this season. In fact, the Rothosen have collected five of their eight points so far on this day of the week. They have one win and two draws in the statistics. The North Germans have not conceded a single goal on Sundays this season.

My subjective assumption that there will be relatively few goals also suggests that Hamburg has a realistic chance of picking up points in Cologne. On the one hand, because neither team has been setting the world alight in terms of results recently. On the other hand, because two of the statistically best goalkeepers so far are facing each other. Only Gregor Kobel of BVB and Alexander Nübel (VfB Stuttgart) have a higher save percentage than Heuer-Fernandes and Schwäbe.

In order to make a suitable prediction before the Cologne vs. HSV match, it is therefore worth taking a closer look at the underlines in the Bet365 app.

On paper, the Rhinelanders are considered the favorites. At least, that’s what the Cologne vs. HSV odds on the three-way market suggest. A home win only brings in 2.10 at the top. Meanwhile, a draw is offered at 3.70, which is quite valuable considering that it’s likely to be a fairly even match.

And that’s despite the fact that none of the last 13 (!) matches between promoted teams in the Bundesliga have ended in a draw. The last time two promoted teams drew in the Bundesliga was in 2019, when Paderborn and Union Berlin played out a 1-1 draw.

Cologne vs. HSV prediction AI

The assessment of the best betting providers coincides with the evaluation of artificial intelligence, which also gives 1. FC Köln an almost 50% chance of winning. Unlike the bookmakers, however, AI expects a relatively high-scoring match. Adding the xG values of 1.77 and 1.34 together gives an expected total of 3.11 goals.

Cologne – Statistics & current form

For a brief moment on Wednesday evening, 1. FC Köln was allowed to dream of a sensation in the DFB Cup. After a courageous start, Ragnar Ache even gave the Billy Goats a 1-0 lead in their home game against the previously flawless FC Bayern, but then the game took its expected course. The Munich team created chance after chance, turned the match around and ultimately secured a deserved 4-1 away win in the cathedral city. Nevertheless, coach Lukas Kwasniok’s team once again showed that it is not only absolutely competitive at the higher level, but can also be a very difficult opponent.

Cologne has only lost to the top four teams in the Bundesliga so far

The club’s officials and fans are likely to be just as satisfied with the current Bundesliga table. Effzeh are currently eighth in the table with eleven points. The traditional club has already built up a relatively comfortable seven-point lead over the relegation play-off spot.

However, the whole truth is that they have only picked up three points from their last six Bundesliga matches (1-2-3). However, the three defeats came against the top clubs from Leipzig, Stuttgart, and Dortmund. Since Hamburg are undoubtedly not among this elite group, the Billy Goats are hoping for another three points on Sunday afternoon.

The only problem is that the Rhinelanders’ offense has recently had noticeable difficulties scoring goals. Including the DFB Cup, Cologne have scored a maximum of one goal in their last six games. In the Bundesliga, a bet on under 2.5 goals would have paid off three times in a row. However, this is also due to a solid defense, which has conceded only three (!) goals from open play. Eight of the eleven goals conceded have come from set pieces. However, there is little danger of that happening on Sunday, as the North Germans have only scored one goal from set pieces so far. This makes it all the more interesting to put the betting odds for under goals between Cologne and HSV on the betting slip.

HSV – Statistics & current form

For the first time since November/December 2020, HSV could lose three league games in a row. However, while the Rothosen were still playing in the 2nd Bundesliga almost exactly five years ago, the same fate now threatens them in the top flight of German soccer. After Hamburg recently lost narrowly to RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg, and in both cases deserved more thanks to decent performances, they will be looking to turn things around at the Rhein-Energie-Stadion.

Coach Merlin Polzin’s team showed how it can be done on Tuesday evening, when they more or less confidently exploited a long numerical advantage in Heidenheim to advance to the round of 16 of the DFB Cup with a 1-0 win. The winning goal came from a penalty kick by none other than Bobby Glatzel, who no longer plays any role in the promoted team’s style of play, which is based on transition play and aggressive pressing.

HSV is still waiting for its first Bundesliga away win this season

It remains to be seen to what extent the decisive goal will bring the veteran closer back to the squad. However, Hamburg certainly needs Glatzel’s goal-scoring threat. Especially away from home. In four games in opposing stadiums, the North Germans have only managed to score one goal so far. Three times, the men from the Elbe have failed to score away from home. No other Bundesliga team has scored fewer goals away from home than the former Bundesliga giants, who have nevertheless managed to collect two points (0-2-2) away from home.

Considering that only Gladbach, who are still without a win and bottom of the table, have scored fewer goals than Polzin’s team, I am inclined to believe that Sunday’s match will also be a tough battle between the two promoted teams. Including cup games, five of Hamburg’s nine competitive matches have seen a maximum of two goals scored. Only twice would the over 3.5 have been successful.

I am therefore pushing for an Asian under 3.25 between Cologne and HSV, for which Bet365 is offering 1.62. Alternatively, the under 1.5 (1st half) can also be recommended at 1.54, especially since both teams have only scored a total of eight goals in the first 45 minutes and, after an intense cup week, will certainly be keen not to fall behind early on.

Cologne – HSV Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

HSV can look back on a good record against 1. FC Köln in recent years. The North Germans have lost only one of their last nine competitive games against the Rhinelanders. HSV has even won six times in this period since 2017. In the previous season, the Rothosen won both games in the 2nd division, 1-0 at home and 2-1 in Cologne.

Also exciting: six times in a row, a bet on under 3.5 would have paid off in this duel, and in five cases, there were even a maximum of two goals after 90 minutes. It is quite possible that this trend will continue on Sunday. In any case, I can well imagine adding the odds for under 2.5 between Cologne and HSV.

Cologne – HSV Tip

Last season, Ransford Königsdörffer scored all three HSV goals against 1. FC Cologne. However, the speedy striker, who was close to a move to France in the summer, is still waiting for his first Bundesliga goal this season. And that’s despite taking 20 shots on goal! This example shows that Hamburg’s biggest shortcoming at the moment is efficiency. The performances are good and the effort is high. However, the final result is not in proportion. In four away games, the Rothosen have only been able to celebrate a single goal.

But since Cologne have also won only one of their last six Bundesliga matches and have managed to get the ball over the opponent’s goal line at most once in six consecutive games across all competitions, I think there is a good chance that there will be few goals in the clash between the two promoted teams.

I therefore recommend betting on under 3.25 at Bet365 before the Cologne vs. HSV match. New customers have the opportunity to benefit from the Bet365 deposit bonus.