Will RB Leipzig continue to be passed around?

For years, there has been no team in the Bundesliga that has performed better and more consistently against promoted teams from the 2nd Bundesliga than RB Leipzig. Since the central city team has been active in Germany’s top division, they have not lost any of their 38 (!) matches against newcomers from the lower division. With 33 wins and five draws, their record is absolutely sensational.

On Sunday afternoon, this seemingly superhuman streak will be put to the test once again. The Saxons will be guests in the cathedral city, where the focus is primarily on Carnival. Nevertheless, a bet on the Rhinelanders could well be justified between 1. FC Köln and RB Leipzig.

Coach Lukas Kwasniok’s team has won its last two home games in a row and has a real advantage with its enthusiastic fans behind it. On the other hand, RB lost at home to relegation candidates Mainz last week and are gradually sliding down the table. Although the visitors are confident of taking all three points at the Rhein-Energie-Stadion, my Cologne vs. RB Leipzig prediction points in a different direction.

The above-average Cologne vs. RB Leipzig odds for under goals are particularly striking. Bookmakers in Germany are expecting a lively, high-scoring encounter in which over 2.5 goals should be a mere formality. I, on the other hand, take a different view and have therefore recommended under 3.5 goals at maximum odds of 1.68.

Cologne vs. RB Leipzig AI prediction

Artificial intelligence has also picked RB Leipzig as the favorite. This assessment is supported on the one hand by the 46.8% probability of an away win, but on the other hand also by the calculated xG values of 1.47 to 1.81. At the same time, however, it should be noted that none of the three possible outcomes on the 1X2 market offers any particular value. Those who still want to trust the AI would probably be best advised to go with the Cologne vs. RB Leipzig AI prediction of a win for the visitors.

Cologne – Statistics & current form

Tenth place in the table is certainly very satisfactory for 1. FC Cologne after 20 match days. However, their position in the (gray) middle of the table must be viewed with caution. They are only five points ahead of the relegation spot, which is currently occupied by the up-and-coming Mainz. A comfortable cushion definitely looks different…

Cologne aiming for third home win in a row

It would be all the more important for the Rhinelanders to continue their winning streak in front of their home crowd on Sunday. Effzeh recently celebrated two wins in a row against Mainz (2-1) and VfL Wolfsburg (1-0), improving their home record to tenth place. In the last three matchdays, the promoted team celebrated as many wins as in the previous 15 matches combined (2-5-8). The form curve is therefore clearly pointing upwards, especially as the Cathedral City team also put in a solid performance in their first home game of the year against leaders Bayern, only conceding late goals to make it 1-2 and 1-3.

In general, the defense has stabilized significantly compared to the weakest phase of the season. Since the beginning of October, only three teams have been able to beat Marvin Schwäbe more than twice in a single match. In general, only two of the last nine league games involving Cologne would have been a good bet for over 3.5 goals. That’s one of the reasons why I’m pushing for a maximum of three goals in the game between Cologne and RB Leipzig.

RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form

RB Leipzig is currently going through a weaker phase this season. The Saxons have lost four of their last seven Bundesliga games.

That is twice as many defeats as in the first 13 matchdays combined. While they picked up an impressive 22 points from their first ten games this season, they have only managed 14 points from their last ten matches.

RB Leipzig concede few goals away from home

The average number of goals scored has also fallen significantly recently. Anyone who wants to take this inevitable downward trend as an opportunity to predict a home win for Cologne against RB Leipzig.

On a positive note, however, the defense usually performs well, especially away from home. If you exclude the 6-0 defeat at the Allianz Arena in Munich on the first matchday, they have conceded just eight goals in the remaining nine Bundesliga away games. Goalkeeper Gulacsi has kept a clean sheet five times. In six of these nine games, a maximum of three goals were scored, which supports my assumption that this will be a relatively low-scoring encounter.

Cologne – RB Leipzig Head-to-head record

Of a total of 15 matches in the Bundesliga, 1. FC Köln has won only two. Eight RB wins and five draws round off the head-to-head record. Most recently, the central city team has achieved three wins in a row with a goal difference of 14:2. The first leg ended 3:1 for the Dosenkicker. In the last joint Bundesliga season in 2023/24, the Saxons even demolished Effzeh 5:1 in front of their home crowd.

In Leipzig, the home team celebrated a 6-0 triumph. Looking back at the last three encounters, almost six goals are certainly one of the reasons why such low odds are being offered on over goals between Cologne and RB Leipzig. I would, however, be cautious about betting on an offensive festival.

Cologne – RB Leipzig Tip

The penultimate game of the 21st matchday in the Bundesliga promises to be very interesting. Despite RB Leipzig being well ahead of 1. FC Cologne in the table, I don’t see a clear favorite. The Saxons have been too inconsistent in recent weeks.

Four defeats in their last seven games definitely reflect their downward trend in form. At least they were able to make a strong transfer on deadline day with Brajan Gruda, who will strengthen the offense. Defensively, they usually do quite well away from home. They have kept a clean sheet in half of their ten Bundesliga away games.

Because Cologne have won their last two home games and even kept a clean sheet against Wolfsburg last week, I think the over/under odds are wrong. The Cologne vs. RB Leipzig tip for under 3.5 goals in particular immediately catches the eye with odds of 1.68, which is why I think it’s worth betting six units on it. I also see value in betting on 1. FC Cologne. I think even a home win is quite realistic and not at all unlikely.