Will the Billy Goats reward themselves once again?

The recent results at 1. FC Cologne have certainly not been overly rosy, with the team winning only one of its last ten Bundesliga games (three draws, six defeats). Nevertheless, the performances in the recent defeats against Bayern (1-3) and Freiburg (1-2) were appealing, so that a point would have been entirely possible here as well. So the big question is when the Billy Goats will finally reward themselves again. At least in their last home game against Mainz (2-1) they managed to do so, which is why we think there is potentially good value at first glance in betting on Cologne to defeat VfL Wolfsburg in front of their home crowd.

However, the injury crisis in defense is problematic from Cologne’s point of view: Schmied, Hübers, Heintz, Kilian, and now Simpson-Pusey are all unavailable to coach Lukas Kwasniok, meaning that the defense will once again have to set itself up. As a result, there are likely to be chances for the visitors, which is why we ultimately consider the prediction of a home win for the Billy Goats in Cologne vs. Wolfsburg to be a touch too risky. Considering that the first leg between the two teams was already a heated affair (final score: 3-3), the tip that both teams will score is a very plausible alternative.

It is interesting to note that 1. FC Cologne mainly scored late in the game. 43 percent of all their Bundesliga goals this season were scored in the final quarter of an hour (twelve out of 28). In percentage terms, this is the highest figure in the top flight of German soccer. A very profitable betting alternative is therefore to bet on both teams scoring between the 76th and 90th minutes in this Friday evening game.

Cologne vs. Wolfsburg Prediction AI

AI also expects a high-scoring match and calculates an expected goals value of 1.75 for Effzeh and 1.38 for VfL. However, according to the AI prediction, the greatest value in Cologne vs. Wolfsburg is in the three-way system – more specifically, in the tip for a home win for the Billy Goats, which is rated at 2.20 by Betway. This translates into a probability of 45.5 percent. AI, on the other hand, calculates a 47.5 percent chance of victory for the cathedral city team. This results in a positive expected value.

Cologne – Statistics & current form

1. FC Köln has had a complicated few weeks, during which there was also a rift between the fans and the coach. However, the Billy Goats’ recent performances have reconciled the fans to some extent, even though three good games have only yielded three out of a possible nine points, leaving the Billy Goats with “only” a five-point lead over the relegation spot.

In order to restore calm in the long term, it would be all the more important for Cologne to win at home against Wolfsburg. However, this is countered by the fact that Effzeh has not won any of its last four Bundesliga games against VfL Wolfsburg and has even lost all of its last three home games against the Wolves in a row. Among the current Bundesliga teams, Cologne has only had a home losing streak of at least the same length against FC Bayern, where it has lost eleven games in a row.

Cologne is too vulnerable defensively

Overall, the recent record is also poor. 1. FC Cologne has won only one of its last ten Bundesliga games and collected six points during this period. Since the tenth matchday, no team has earned fewer points, with Werder Bremen on the same tally. In the current Bundesliga season, the Billy Goats have already squandered 16 points after taking the lead. This figure is only slightly below that of the previous season and is surpassed only by today’s visitors from Lower Saxony. In addition, Cologne has been waiting for a clean sheet for 13 Bundesliga games and has not kept a clean sheet in its last ten home games.

What is striking, however, is their late goal threat. 43 percent of Cologne’s goals this season have come in the final quarter of an hour, which is the highest percentage in the league. At the same time, Effzeh have already conceded 17 goals from set pieces, ten of which came from corners. However, this was not down to goalkeeper Marvin Schwäbe.

The keeper recently saved a penalty and is actually top of the league with 18 big chances saved.

Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form

VfL Wolfsburg are having their worst season to date, with 19 points after 19 Bundesliga games. Only in the 2016/17 season did they have an identical points tally at this stage. In that season, Wolfsburg only secured their place in the league via the relegation play-offs, which is why those responsible made changes on the bench and pulled the plug on Paul Simonis. Daniel Bauer has been in charge of the Lower Saxony club since the end of December.

The Wolves have also failed to capitalize on many leads in the current season. With 18 points dropped after taking the lead, VfL are the league leaders in this category, surpassing even their upcoming opponents. So it’s no surprise that the top bookmakers’ odds for Cologne vs. Wolfsburg clearly favor a home win, with the Green-Whites’ victory priced at around 3.25.

Wolfsburg with similar issues to Cologne

The players from Lower Saxony have very similar problems to today’s hosts. Defensively, VfL have been waiting for a clean sheet for eleven Bundesliga games now. In addition, they have already conceded 13 goals from set pieces, with only 1. FC Köln being more vulnerable. Their discipline in the penalty area is also particularly striking, as Wolfsburg have already conceded eight penalties, more than any other team this season.

Offensively, however, VfL make their mark very early on. 29 percent of their goals this season have been scored in the opening quarter of an hour, which is the highest percentage and absolute number in the league. Goalkeeper Kamil Grabara also saved a penalty on the last matchday and, with 18 big chances saved, is tied with Marvin Schwäbe at the top of the Bundesliga.

Cologne – Wolfsburg Head-to-head record

Head to head: 10 – 12 – 18

A total of 40 competitive matches have been played between the two teams so far, with VfL Wolfsburg leading the head-to-head record with 18 wins. The Lower Saxony side are unbeaten in their last four Bundesliga games against 1. FC Köln (two wins, two draws) and also won their last away game at the RheinEnergieStadion 2-1. In the first leg on matchday 3, the two teams played out a thrilling 3-3 draw.

Cologne – Wolfsburg Tip

From an AI perspective, the best option for Cologne vs. Wolfsburg is a home win for the Billy Goats. Our analysis also shows that they see Effzeh as having the advantage. And yet there are still some critical points. These include the vulnerability of Kwasniok’s team to set pieces, their erratic handling of leads, and the injury crisis in defense, which means that the defense will practically set itself up. Against this backdrop, the range of possible game scenarios is simply too wide for us, which is why we would refrain from using the three-way system from a human perspective.

It is clear that both teams have similar problems. This means that both sides are likely to have chances to score, so we can expect a Friday night game with a tendency to produce a lot of goals. We recommend betting on both teams to score, which would have been the case in nine of the last twelve meetings between the two teams.