Will Inter win the Scudetto race after all?
The race for the Italian championship will indeed be decided on the last matchday. Because a tie would result in a playoff and Inter Milan has to play the Champions League final against PSG on May 31, Serie A officials have decided to move the matches between the two Scudetto contenders from Sunday to Friday evening. The betting base is focusing on the Como vs. Inter Milan tip and has, of course, also prepared betting recommendations for the parallel match between Napoli and Cagliari!
Napoli definitely has the better starting position ahead of the final showdown. The players from the foot of Mount Vesuvius currently have a one-point lead in the standings and could therefore secure their second championship in three years with a home win. The Champions League finalists from Lombardy, meanwhile, need a win of their own and a slip-up from Napoli to defend their title from last season. Even their own homework is highly complex. Given the hosts’ strong form, the Inzaghi team’s victory is by no means a foregone conclusion ahead of the clash between Como and Inter Milan.
The bookmakers are far more confident in their assessment of “Il Biscione.” At the top, the odds for an away win are just 1.66. But beware: Napoli and Roma also returned home empty-handed from the beautiful Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia on Lake Como.
Como – Statistics & current form
Even in the summer, it was clear to experts that Como was no ordinary Serie A newcomer. Last year’s Serie B runners-up invested around €100 million in their squad, underlining their ambition to reach the top of the national league in the medium term. However, over many weeks and months, the White and Blues failed to bring their undoubted quality to bear on the pitch and, with only four wins after the first half of the season, found themselves just above the relegation zone.
In the meantime, however, the team led by former world-class midfielder Cesc Fabregas has developed excellently and has also taken a giant step forward in the table. After 18 of 19 matches, the “Lariani” are in sixth place in the second half of the season. The promoted team has celebrated just as many victories as title contenders Napoli (nine) and has recorded more points than AC Milan, Bologna, Lazio Rome, and Fiorentina.
Como is the team of the moment in Serie A
The team’s form has been on a steady upward trajectory, especially in recent weeks. The Lombards have picked up 19 points from seven matches. After six wins in a row, they drew 1-1 at Hellas Verona last weekend. However, given their impressive form, which is also reflected in six consecutive unbeaten home games (four wins, two draws), it may well be worth considering the odds for a double chance 1X between Como and Inter Milan. With Betano’s $20 free bet, you can even try out the 2.27 odds on offer without much risk. In my opinion, there is definitely value to be had, especially as the boys from Lake Como are currently displaying another remarkable strength: their defense!
They have conceded just two goals in their last six games. The White and Blues have kept a clean sheet four times during this period. At the beginning of February, Juventus was the last club to score more than one goal in Como. Coach Cesc Fabregas’ initially rather wild approach to the game has now given way to a certain degree of control. The defense looks solid, and talented individual players such as Nico Paz are repeatedly creating dangerous situations in the attacking third.
Inter Milan – Statistics & current form
Until the 90th minute of the 37th matchday, Inter Milan held pole position in the battle for the Scudetto. Then a handball by German international Yann Bisseck led to a penalty for Lazio Rome. Veteran Pedro confidently converted the penalty to make it 2-2, sending the entire Nerazzurri fanbase into tears. Instead of going into the season finale with a one-point lead, the Champions League finalists from the fashion capital suddenly find themselves out of control of their own destiny. Napoli must drop points for Inter to catch or overtake them.
Incidentally, if Milan draw and Partenopei lose against Cagliari, there will be a play-off for the trophy next Monday.
Will Inter’s offense grind its teeth against Como’s defensive wall?
If coach Simone Inzaghi’s team really has to settle for second place in Serie A, it will definitely be their own fault. In a phase of triple pressure, the Inter team, which is above average in age in many positions, has lost too many points. Just three wins in the last seven games underscore this fact and are further evidence that the Black and Blues are clear favorites in the Lombardy derby on Lake Como. If, for example, word gets out that Napoli is taking control of its own match early on, this could lead to a loss of focus for Thuram and Co.
To make matters worse, Lautaro Martinez, the best striker, has been out with an injury recently. The Argentine is still not 100%, but he has returned to team training and will therefore probably be an option for Friday. This is important because “La Beneamata” has scored just five goals in its last five Serie A matches. This is one of the reasons why I am pushing for under goals in the betting odds between Como and Inter Milan. In six of the last eight away games involving Inter, under 2.5 goals would have been the result. A goal fest is unlikely in front of a picturesque backdrop on Friday evening.
Como – Inter Milan Head-to-head record / H2H record
The clubs have faced each other 27 times in the Italian top flight. Inter have won 18 and lost just six, with three draws completing the head-to-head record. However, most of these encounters took place decades ago. The only truly relevant duel therefore comes from the first half of the season. Inzaghi’s side struggled on the eve of Christmas Eve, taking a 1-0 lead shortly after half-time and having to wait until stoppage time for Thuram to make it 2-0 and secure the three points. It cannot be ruled out that Milan will face another test of patience on Friday evening.
Como – Inter Milan prediction
Who will be Italian champions in 2024/25? This question will most likely be answered on Friday evening. Although the scenario of a decisive match must still be taken into account, there are many indications that the Neapolitans will do their job at home against Cagliari. Furthermore, it must be noted that Inter Milan has a much tougher task ahead of them. Como is one of the strongest teams in Serie A. Fabregas’s team has picked up 19 points in the last seven games. In four of the last six games, the White and Blues have also kept a clean sheet.
Because Inter have not exactly covered themselves in glory recently, carelessly giving away the pole position in the race for the Scudetto with a 2-2 draw at home against Lazio Rome last week and generally lacking something in attack at national level at the moment, it is definitely an idea to bet on the double chance 1X. However, I find the Asian under 3 goals bet between Como and Inter Milan even more interesting. If exactly three goals are scored in the end, the stake of six units will be returned. The top odds are 1.77 and can be found at Bet365.