El-Mala-Mania in Dortmund too?

There is currently hardly any Bundesliga professional who generates more media hype than Said El Mala. The 19-year-old top talent, who played for Viktoria Cologne in the 3rd division last season, has repeatedly demonstrated his outstanding qualities at 1. FC Cologne in the Bundesliga within a few weeks, thereby increasing his value many times over and also winning the hearts of Effzeh fans in the attack.

The only question now is how high the transfer fee will be when the offensive gem is sold to a top German or even European club next summer. With regard to Saturday evening’s Dortmund vs. Cologne match, Said El Mala could also make an important contribution, depending on when coach Lukas Kwasniok lets him off the leash.

However, it is also clear that the fast-paced dribbler with his strong finishing skills is traveling to Dortmund with his team as underdogs. But the Rhinelanders have no reason to hide, as they have a strong eleven points to their name after seven match days, just three points behind BVB, who have failed to win in their last two games in the German top flight.

Across all competitions, however, Kovac’s team has celebrated eight wins in its last nine home games (one draw). Added to this are logical quality advantages, so that in the course of the eighth matchday in the Bundesliga between Dortmund and Cologne, a prediction of a home win makes the most sense.

After all, Borussia’s last clean sheet was almost a month ago. In addition, the Billy Goats are brimming with confidence after their positive start to the season. Could there even be a surprise in store?

Dortmund vs. Cologne Prediction AI

Artificial intelligence answers this question with a resounding “no.” Only FC Bayern, playing against bottom-of-the-table Gladbach, is given a higher probability of winning than the Black and Yellows in the AI tips for Bundesliga matchday 8. Just under 70% corresponds to implied odds of 1.42, which is in line with the assessment of the best bookmakers.

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Three games, seven points, and twelve goals scored! Borussia Dortmund’s record in the UEFA Champions League has certainly been impressive so far. During the week, the Black and Yellows celebrated a well-deserved 4-2 away win at FC Copenhagen, with which the 2024 finalists underlined their ambitions in Europe’s most important club competition.

In the Bundesliga, however, BVB has temporarily relinquished its role as Bayern’s closest pursuer. A good first half at Munich’s Allianz Arena last Saturday was not enough to take a point off the record champions for the first time this season. Nevertheless, the good performance in the second half was an indication that Niko Kovac has instilled a great structure and a vastly improved mentality in his team over the past weeks and months.

Will Dortmund’s starting lineup look different again?

About a year ago, a home game against a promoted team following a week of European cup action would probably have been fraught with complications, but Borussia has undoubtedly regained the trust of its own fans and confidence in its own strength. That’s exactly why I’m predicting a home win for the former German champions, who have slipped to fourth place before the start of the matchday, in Saturday evening’s game between Dortmund and Cologne.

Because BVB have conceded at least one goal in each of their last four games and the coach has already announced another rotation of personnel, my prediction is that the Black and Yellows will take all three points, but once again fail to keep a clean sheet. This is also supported by an interesting statistic, as half of the six goals conceded so far have come in the final quarter of an hour. This is precisely the period in which Cologne are particularly dangerous. Only the dominant leaders from Munich have scored more than five goals after the 75th minute.

Cologne – Statistics & current form

With eleven points from seven games and sixth place in the table, 1. FC Köln has had the best start to the season of any promoted team in eight years (Hannover 2017/18). By way of comparison, in their last season in Germany’s top flight, the Billy Goats had eleven points to their name after the entire first half of the season. The euphoria in the cathedral city is currently knowing no bounds. The first optimists are already dreaming of a return to international competition. Realists, on the other hand, are busy warning against losing focus. The truth probably lies somewhere in between.

Cologne wants to cause a surprise with courage and lightheartedness

Nevertheless, the way coach Lukas Kwasniok’s team is performing at the moment is viewed very positively in the scene. Effzeh’s game is not characterized by long waits or deep defensive blocks, but rather by courageous forward defending, fast vertical play after winning the ball, and a certain carefree attitude that makes the sixth-placed team, which has lost only one of its last six away games across two seasons, an uncomfortable opponent.

Also interesting: the Rhinelanders have scored at least once in all seven Bundesliga matchdays. However, they have also conceded eight goals in the last five matchdays. Three times, a bet on over 3.5 would have paid off, twice of which were away games. For me, therefore, the betting odds on a high-scoring duel between Dortmund and Cologne are also of interest.

If at least one goal is scored in both halves and this approach is combined with the double chance 1X, Betano offers a relatively low-risk 1.55.

Dortmund – Cologne Head-to-head record

Borussia Dortmund has won all of its last three direct duels against 1. FC Cologne. In total, the Westphalians scored a whopping eleven (!) goals. In general, the record at home is also very impressive. In 24 Bundesliga home games, BVB has celebrated 19 wins, drawn four times, and suffered only one defeat – but that was five years ago and therefore has no influence on the upcoming match. In any case, the H2H is primarily irrelevant data that should not have a decisive influence on Saturday evening’s game.

Dortmund – Cologne Tip

1. FC Köln are really looking forward to finally playing a real top match in the Bundesliga on Saturday evening again. And that’s despite the fact that they have only won one of their last eight encounters of this kind. In fact, it is a top-of-the-table clash, as the fourth-placed team hosts the sixth-placed team.

On paper, however, the outcome seems relatively clear. BVB are the clear favorites and, after picking up just one point from their last two games, are looking to get back to winning ways in the league. Niko Kovac’s announcement that he intends to rotate his squad again does not change this! Although Cologne, and Said El Mala in particular, are currently the talk of the town after their good start, I am convinced that the bar is set too high for the promoted team at Signal Iduna Park in front of over 80,000 spectators. I therefore recommend betting on the home team to score at least once in both halves of the Dortmund vs. Cologne match. At Betano, you can get odds of 1.88 for this.