A confident victory for BVB on Sunday?
Did Borussia Dortmund make a comeback in the race for the Bundesliga championship last week? The fact is that the Black and Yellows have closed the gap on the leaders from Munich to eight points. In addition, BVB still has a home game against Bayern to play in the second half of the season. In any case, Kovac’s team is actually having a championship season, statistically speaking. This is underlined by the 42 points they have collected, as well as the fact that they have lost only one Bundesliga match in 2025/26.
To keep the pressure on FCB, a successful bet on the hosts is a must in the late Sunday afternoon match between Dortmund and Heidenheim.
Admittedly, ahead of the last match of the 20th matchday in the Bundesliga between Dortmund and Heidenheim, the prediction for the second-placed team is very popular. After all, the visitors from the Ostalb are currently bottom of the table and have not won any of their last six league games. However, it may play into the underdog’s hands that BVB are coming to the end of their third consecutive week of three games and their squad has definitely suffered under the enormous strain.
In Wednesday evening’s Champions League defeat to Inter Milan, for example, there were only four fit outfield players left on the bench.
Nevertheless, ahead of Dortmund’s clash with Heidenheim, the odds are clearly in Borussia’s favor. The expected home win pays out a maximum of 1.25. It should therefore be more exciting to combine the favorite’s three points with a maximum number of goals. It is quite possible that Borussia will once again emerge with a confident but lackluster victory.
Dortmund vs. Heidenheim Prediction AI
Looking at the AI tips for the 20th Bundesliga matchday, it is clear that artificial intelligence believes no other club will score more goals this weekend than Borussia Dortmund against Heidenheim. The xG value for BVB is 2.52, while 1. FCH is only given an xG value of 0.74.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Bayern’s defeat at home to FC Augsburg last week saw Borussia Dortmund take the lead in two different rankings. On the one hand, the Black and Yellows are now the only team that has not lost a home game in the current Bundesliga season (7-2-0) and, with 2.56 points, even has the best average of all clubs. On the other hand, they also have the longest series of consecutive unbeaten matches. BVB has not lost any of its last twelve Bundesliga games. In the top five European leagues, this number of games is currently only surpassed by AC Milan (21).
BVB fans are once again hoping for a glorious three points
Given these remarkable figures, the atmosphere around Borsigplatz should actually be very positive. Think again! The majority of fans still feel a certain dissatisfaction and skepticism about Niko Kovac’s boring anti-football. For many critics, it seems only a matter of time before the team’s luck and/or outstanding efficiency wanes and the ugly but successful results-oriented football gives way to ugly and unsuccessful results-oriented football.
However, despite the tense personnel situation, I consider it very unlikely that this will happen on Sunday afternoon in the home game against the bottom team in the table. The difference in quality is too great, and the Black and Yellows presented themselves too confidently in the 3-0 win against Union Berlin last week. After weaker performances in the last three home games against Werder Bremen, St. Pauli, and Inter Milan, the fans in the “Süd” are hoping for a good performance again.
In any case, I am optimistic that the prediction of a BVB victory will come true in the Dortmund vs. Heidenheim match. It is also conceivable to bet on the double result HT1/FT1, especially since the second-placed team has been ahead at half-time on 14 of the 19 match days so far and has only conceded three goals in the first 45 minutes to date. The Betano app is offering odds of 1.70 for a start-to-finish victory for the favorites.
Heidenheim – Statistics & current form
For 1. FC Heidenheim, the air at the bottom of the table is getting thinner and thinner. After six games without a win and only two points collected in that period, coach Frank Schmidt’s team has slipped to 18th place. They are already five points behind the first direct relegation spot. Another cause for concern is that the bottom-placed team has only been in the lead for 150 minutes throughout the entire season. This is the lowest figure of all clubs in Europe’s top five leagues.
Heidenheim’s figures read like those of a sure relegation candidate
Speaking of negative values in Europe’s top five leagues… There is no team in Spain, Italy, England, or France that has yet to claim a clean sheet in the 2025/26 season. Heidenheim, on the other hand, is still waiting for its first “clean sheet” match in the Bundesliga and has also conceded the most goals of any team (42).
The haul of just four points away from home is also not helping matters. That’s why I’m interested in the Dortmund vs. Heidenheim betting odds, which suggest that 1. FCH will fail to score at Signal Iduna Park.
Dortmund – Heidenheim Head-to-head record
The teams have faced each other five times in the Bundesliga so far. While BVB had to settle for two draws in Heidenheim’s debut season, the Black and Yellows have prevailed in the last three games. The first leg ended 2-0 for the Champions League participants, who have scored at least twice in four of the five games mentioned. I think a similar result to mid-September is extremely likely. However, I don’t believe Dortmund will score more than three or four goals against the relegation candidates.
Dortmund – Heidenheim Tip
If Bayern stumble unexpectedly and leave themselves open to attack, Borussia Dortmund will be there to take advantage. That was the tenor of the BVB players after the last matchday. It is certainly too early to artificially create excitement in the battle for the German championship, but it must be noted that the Black and Yellows continue to achieve consistently good results and have now lost only one of their last 27 matches in the top flight of German soccer. Under normal circumstances, there should be no problems at home against Heidenheim.
Schmidt’s team not only adorns the bottom of the table and has the most vulnerable defense in the league, but also has to do without key defender Benedikt Gimber, who is suspended due to yellow cards. With him in the starting lineup, 1. FCH has conceded 1.7 goals per game since their first promotion to the Bundesliga, and 2.3 without him.
All in all, everything points to Borussia winning, so I recommend betting on a home win with under 4.5 goals as a match combo between Dortmund and Heidenheim.
