Will TSG surprise BVB too?
TSG Hoffenheim is currently the team of the moment in the Bundesliga. The Kraichgauers have picked up 16 points from their last six games, quietly climbing up the table. In fifth place, Ilzer’s protégés even have the chance to overtake Borussia Dortmund on Sunday and temporarily jump into a Champions League spot. That is, if the tip for a three-point win for the visitors in the direct duel between Dortmund and Hoffenheim proves to be correct.
Despite TSG’s outstanding form, it is of course a risk to predict a home defeat for either Dortmund or Hoffenheim. BVB has not lost any of its last nine home games in the German top flight across two seasons and has only suffered one competitive defeat in front of the yellow wall this season. However, that defeat came on Tuesday evening in the round of 16 of the DFB Cup, which they lost 1-0 to Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
It remains to be seen how the Black and Yellows will cope with this setback and the multiple demands placed on them. While Sinsheim have been preparing for the top match in the Ruhr for a week, for BVB it is the end of the second of three consecutive weeks of midweek games. Mentally and physically, the encounter against the strong-running visitors is likely to be an immense challenge.
Without going into statistical detail, it is fair to say that ahead of the clash between Dortmund and Hoffenheim, the odds on the 1X2 market are far too one-sided.
This is no surprise when you consider that, ahead of Sunday’s game between Dortmund and Hoffenheim, the betting odds for the double chance are averaging 2.30. At the same time, however, you can also trust in BVB’s home strength and bet on the favorites to win at odds of around 1.60.
Dortmund vs. Hoffenheim AI prediction
The artificial intelligence is also clearly on Borussia’s side with its assessment. The estimated probability of victory is 64.2%, so even in the Dortmund vs. Hoffenheim AI prediction, there is still value to be found in a home win at maximum odds of 1.63 at Interwetten. Based on xG values, the AI believes that only FC Bayern in Stuttgart is more likely to score than BVB at home against TSG.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Niko Kovac has stabilized Borussia Dortmund in the long term. There is no question about that. At the same time, however, he has ensured that BVB’s style of play has lost some of its appeal. Accordingly, it is not so easy to draw initial conclusions after the first third of the season. The strong Champions League campaign so far certainly stands out as a positive. Third place in the Bundesliga is also acceptable. However, the cup defeat against Leverkusen during the week may have ruined their only real chance of winning a title.
How long will relative success continue to mask BVB’s average performances?
Nevertheless, it must be said that Borussia are extremely difficult to beat. Across all competitions, Dortmund have lost only three competitive games, two of them against Bayern and Manchester City. In addition, there is no other club in the top five European leagues that has spent fewer minutes behind than BVB (91). The fact that they have conceded only two goals before the break is also the best record of all 18 Bundesliga clubs.
Nevertheless, I am refraining from predicting a home win for Westphalia in the Dortmund vs. Hoffenheim match. On the one hand, because it is unclear how Kovac’s team will return to league action after their bitter and physically intense cup knockout. On the other hand, because of the form and freshness of the opponent. Apart from that, it should be added that the Black and Yellows have won only two of their last six competitive games and have conceded at least one goal in five of those six games. I think it is very likely that both teams will score again on Sunday evening.
Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form
While Borussia are accused of changing their approach at the expense of a bold and attractive style of play, the opposite can be said of TSG Hoffenheim. Behind Bayern, Leverkusen, and Frankfurt, the Sinsheim-based club has the fourth-best offense in the Bundesliga. In the last six Bundesliga games alone, Fisnik Asllani and Co. have scored 16 (!) goals, almost three per game on average. Because, as mentioned, they have also picked up 16 out of a possible 18 points, the Kraichgauers are in fifth place and are also – together with FC Bayern – the strongest team in the top flight.
TSG Hoffenheim sets new benchmarks
The running statistics of the TSG professionals are remarkable. No other team runs more kilometers in a game. The Blue and Whites also lead the rankings for sprints and intensive runs. Almost all of the attacking players have plenty of speed, making the matchups on the back line the ultimate challenge for the defenders. Given that BVB aims to achieve success at home through controlled periods of possession, there will always be strong opportunities for Ilzer’s team to switch play after winning the ball.
Coupled with their immense self-confidence and individual quality, which should not be underestimated, I am convinced that Hoffenheim will score at Signal Iduna Park. Secretly, I think it’s entirely possible that the odds on double chance X2 will pay off between Dortmund and Hoffenheim.
This subjective optimism can be explained by their away record so far. 14 points from six Bundesliga away games are enough for a place at the top of the away table. The men from the Rhine-Neckar region have not lost any of their last eight Bundesliga away games across two seasons! Nine consecutive unbeaten Bundesliga away games would be a new club record for the hard-working surprise team, which is currently just a joy to watch.
Dortmund – Hoffenheim Head-to-head record
Since the start of the 2020/21 season, Borussia Dortmund has earned more points on average against TSG Hoffenheim (2.4) than against any other club. BVB has won eight of the last eleven competitive matches across all competitions. However, two of the three matches without a win were the last two home games. In December 2024, there was a 1-1 draw at Signal Iduna Park. In February last year, Hoffenheim even took all three points from the Ruhr region (3-2).
Dortmund – Hoffenheim Tip
There is potential for a surprise on Sunday evening at 5:30 p.m. in Borussia Dortmund’s home game against TSG Hoffenheim. The visitors from Kraichgau are the hottest team in the Bundesliga, winning five of their last six matches, scoring 16 goals and currently exuding incredible enthusiasm for the game. The pragmatic style of BVB soccer is much harder to stomach. Although it has brought relative success, it is increasingly sparking debate. After being knocked out of the cup, Kovac’s team wants to at least continue its unbeaten streak of nine Bundesliga home games. In the best case scenario, of course, with three points.
In my opinion, however, it is smarter to bet on the high odds for the double chance X2. TSG is in too good form, and there are too many uncertainties surrounding the Black and Yellows. Alternatively, I recommend betting on both teams scoring between Dortmund and Hoffenheim. The 1.55 is still a solid bet, so I’m risking seven units. If you want to bet on the supposed underdog scoring the first goal of the game, you can even get a whopping 2.70 at the top.
