Will Westphalia prevail in the chase?

The situation for securing a top-eight finish in the Champions League group stage and a direct ticket to the round of 16 is not looking too rosy for either Borussia Dortmund or Inter Milan. The Black and Yellows are in 16th place with eleven points, while the Nerazzurri are currently 14th with one point more to their name.

Accordingly, they would need a lot of help from other teams to overtake enough of them. Nevertheless, the main priority for both opponents now is to do their own homework. In this article, we analyze whether a home win for Westphalia is a viable bet in Dortmund’s match against Inter Milan.

There are certainly arguments in favor of BVB, first and foremost their home strength. The Westphalians have lost only one of their last 21 Champions League home games (13 wins, seven draws) and have remained completely unbeaten in six CL home games under Niko Kovac (three wins, three draws).

In addition, the Nerazzurri have completely lost their way in the Champions League recently, suffering three defeats in a row. Nevertheless, we would advise against betting on Dortmund against Inter Milan and instead bet on both teams scoring in this match.

Both teams also scored a lot of goals in their dress rehearsals at the weekend. Dortmund won 3-0 at Union Berlin, while Inter beat Pisa 6-2. Accordingly, the tip for over 2.5 goals is also a good one, with odds of 1.72 listed in the Betano app.

Those looking for higher odds on Dortmund vs. Inter Milan and willing to take a slightly higher risk can consider betting on Serhou Guirassy to score. He has scored twelve goals and provided two assists in ten Champions League home games at Signal Iduna Park, averaging a goal every 55 minutes.

Dortmund vs. Inter Milan AI prediction

While we have some reservations about the three-way system from a human perspective, the AI prediction for Dortmund vs. Inter Milan is aiming for a home win for the Black and Yellows. This is rated at odds of 2.90 at bet365, where new customers can claim up to €100 in betting credits with the bet365 bonus, implying a 34.5 percent probability of occurrence. AI, on the other hand, calculates BVB’s chance of winning at 36.9 percent. That is almost two and a half percentage points higher and provides plenty of value on the betting slip.

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Borussia Dortmund has been doing very well again recently in the Bundesliga. Now it’s time to seize the last chance to qualify directly for the Champions League round of 16. To do so, Dortmund must win at home against Inter Milan, having lost only once in their last 21 home games in the UEFA Champions League (13 wins, seven draws). Niko Kovac remains unbeaten with BVB at Signal Iduna Park, recording three wins and three draws.

Dortmund struggling against Europe’s top teams

The problem, however, is that Borussia have repeatedly struggled against big-name opponents in international competition recently. Since the start of the 2022/23 season, the Westphalians have lost all eleven of their Champions League games against teams from one of the five major European leagues. During this period, their win rate against these opponents was 41 percent from 29 games, while against teams from other leagues it was 69 percent from 13 games.

Nevertheless, the home factor also has an impact on the individual performance data of the players. Julian Brandt, for example, has been directly involved in eight goals in his last 14 home games in the Champions League. He has also remained unbeaten in 19 consecutive home games in the competition. Serhou Guirassy has scored twelve goals and provided two assists in ten Champions League games at Signal Iduna Park, meaning that statistically he is involved in a goal every 55 minutes.

Inter Milan – Statistics & current form

After narrowly missing out on the Scudetto last summer, Inter Milan are once again the team to beat in Serie A. While the title race was still very close in the first half of the season, the Nerazzurri’s lead over second place is now a comfortable five points following their recent 6-2 win over Pisa. Cristian Chivu’s team is now traveling to Westphalia with their chests puffed out, even though they have suffered three consecutive defeats in the Champions League after four wins at the start of the season.

Previously, the team from Lombardy had only suffered three defeats in 27 games, recording 18 wins and six draws during that period. The Biscione (meaning “the poisonous snake”) have never suffered four consecutive defeats in the European Cup before. Against this backdrop, the odds for a double chance X2 in Dortmund vs. Inter Milan are very low. In the bet365 app, the odds for this are just 1.37.

Will Inter Milan be able to flip the switch again offensively?

The Nerazzurri have been extremely prolific in Serie A recently, scoring 50 goals in 22 league games. Internationally, however, they have struggled in recent games, which was also reflected in individual performance data. For example, Marcus Thuram has averaged 5.6 shots on goal per 90 minutes in this Champions League season, but has failed to score in his last five appearances, despite having a total of 16 shots.

So it could be Lautaro Martínez who makes the difference, as he once again leads the club’s scoring charts in Serie A with 12 goals and has already scored four goals in six Champions League games. This means that the Argentine has scored a goal in the Champions League every 99 minutes on average.

Dortmund – Inter Milan Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 2 – 1 – 3

Six international competitive matches have already taken place between the two teams, with Inter Milan leading the head-to-head comparison with three wins. The Nerazzurri eliminated the Black and Yellows not only in the semifinals of the 1963/64 European Cup, but also in the quarterfinals of the 1993/94 UEFA Cup. In their last encounter in Group F of the 2019/20 Champions League, each team won at home. BVB beat the Lombards 3-2 at home.

Dortmund – Inter Milan Tip

Basically, the prediction for Dortmund against Inter Milan tends to favor the Bundesliga club, which is an absolute home powerhouse in front of the Yellow Wall. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the visitors from Italy have not lost to any second or even third-tier teams recently, but have had a very difficult schedule in the Champions League.

The fact that they have suffered three consecutive defeats after four wins at the start of the season should not be overrated. The Nerazzurri’s performance in Serie A, on the other hand, clearly indicates that FC Internazionale is capable of achieving a good result at Signal Iduna Park.

Since only a win would help both teams, we expect a very action-packed match that is likely to produce a goal or two. We find the greatest value in betting on both teams to score.

For goals on both sides, the Bet-at-home app offers odds of 1.50 for Dortmund vs. Inter Milan, which we are betting on with six out of ten units.