Will BVB march into the Champions League with a resounding victory?

It’s been almost exactly two years since BVB faced a real final on the last matchday of the Bundesliga season. Back then, the Black and Yellows were even playing for the championship in front of their home crowd against Mainz 05. Instead of securing the trophy with a win and sending the entire city into a collective frenzy of joy, Borussia had to settle for a draw and once again congratulate FC Bayern on winning the title. On Saturday afternoon, Wettbasis will be looking at another final for BVB in its Dortmund vs. Kiel tip.

On the 34th matchday of the Bundesliga, coach Niko Kovac’s team has a great opportunity to jump on the bandwagon and secure a place in the Champions League. Just a few weeks ago, hardly anyone would have dared to predict that the Black and Yellows would still be in contention for a Champions League spot ahead of the final showdown between Dortmund and Kiel.

However, with their two direct rivals Freiburg and Frankfurt taking points off each other, Borussia now only need a home win by two goals to secure a place in the top four. Depending on the result in Breisgau, even a simple three points could be enough to bring the season to a satisfactory conclusion.

The task certainly seems achievable, especially as Holstein Kiel, who have been relegated since last week and are therefore only playing for the proverbial “golden pineapple,” are the visitors to Signal Iduna Park. Given this contrasting situation, it is not surprising that the maximum odds offered for a home win between Dortmund and Kiel are 1.12.

Dortmund vs. Kiel prediction AI

Over the entire season, artificial intelligence has recorded a negative return of 22 units or -7.38%. Nevertheless, there have been repeated examples, especially in the past, where “BETSiE” has proven its instincts. In any case, the Wettbasis supercomputer is predicting a clear home win for the Black and Yellows on the last matchday.

This is also underlined by the predicted xG values of 3.03 to 0.83, which suggest a handicap win for the home side, but also a bet on under 4.5 goals, which is very attractively priced at NEO.bet with maximum odds of 1.82 and is therefore our priority bet for Dortmund vs. Kiel KI prediction.

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Who would have seriously believed seven to eight weeks ago that Borussia Dortmund would still be able to secure a ticket to the UEFA Champions League on the last matchday? While the signing of Niko Kovac was viewed very critically by BVB fans and supporters, it is slowly time to apologize. The former Bayern coach has managed to inspire the team and instill a new mindset. Hard work, belief, trust, and a lot of diligence characterize the new Borussia. The remarkable upward trend is therefore largely down to coach Kovac, whose personal future at the 2024 Champions League finalists seems secure beyond the summer.

Will the BVB attack overwhelm the league’s weakest defense?

The Westphalians have picked up 19 points in their last seven games. In addition to six wins, the only point dropped was in a draw against FC Bayern. For the first time since March 2024, Dortmund recently won four Bundesliga games in a row. The highlight was last week’s 4-2 win at Bayer 04 Leverkusen, which put BVB in a promising position in the race for the vacant Champions League spot. If the prediction of a two-goal victory for the favorites proves correct between Dortmund and Kiel, Borussia will once again represent Germany in Europe’s most important club competition in 2025/26.

Guirassy and Co. have been particularly impressive in attack in recent weeks. In the course of their seven-match unbeaten run, the Ballspielverein have scored at least twice in every game. In six of the seven games, they have even scored three or more goals. A total of 23 goals equates to an average of over three goals per game since the end of March.

Because Kovac’s team also has the best conversion rate in the German top flight at 22%, betting providers with Klarna have set the over/under line quite high from the outset. Interwetten is offering odds of 1.95 for at least five goals in the game, which in turn invites you to take advantage of Interwetten’s $11 free bet. It might also be interesting to bet on a relatively high-scoring first half. In their last five home games, ten goals were scored before the break. BVB led by two goals after 45 minutes three times during this period. The goal for Saturday afternoon should also be to establish a clear lead as quickly as possible and thus avoid a potentially stressful situation in which mental strength could play a decisive role.

Kiel – Statistics & current form

Since last week, it has been clear that Holstein Kiel’s Bundesliga adventure will come to an end after just one season. Despite improved performances in recent games, a courageous attacking approach over 33 matchdays and a lot of effort, it was ultimately not enough to finish ahead of two or three teams. Looking at the standings, the away game at Signal Iduna Park is therefore no longer significant.

Will Kiel score at least one goal in their 17th Bundesliga away game?

Nevertheless, the Storks are determined to continue their streak and set a new record at the same time. In fact, no promoted team has ever managed to score at least one goal in all of its away games in the Bundesliga. KSV has found the back of the net in all 16 Bundesliga away games this season, making it the only club besides the English champions from Liverpool to achieve this feat in Europe’s top five leagues.

In view of this impressive and curious statistic, it definitely makes sense to take a closer look at the odds for both teams to score before the Dortmund vs. Kiel match. If you want to combine this approach with the handicap success of the Black and Yellows, the Bet-at-Home app offers good odds of 2.36, which can be played with the free credit from the Bet-at-Home bonus.

Incidentally, coach Marcel Rapp’s team will not be giving up without a fight. On the one hand, the Storks want to be the first Bundesliga club from Schleswig-Holstein to bid a fitting farewell to the country’s top flight. On the other hand, KSV Holstein wants to confirm the positive impressions of recent weeks. The North Germans have returned from away games without defeat three times in a row. Among other things, they secured only their second away win of the season in Augsburg. Anyone who believes in a surprise coup in the form of a KSV victory this Saturday will find betting odds of 35.00 at Betano before kick-off in the Dortmund vs. Kiel match.

Dortmund – Kiel Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

To date, the clubs have only faced each other three times in competitive matches. While the two cup games in 2012 and 2021 ended in clear victories for BVB, who were in a higher division at the time, the first leg in mid-January saw a huge upset in the Bundesliga debut of this fixture. Kiel defeated Borussia 4-2 at home, adding fuel to the fire in Dortmund, which ultimately led to the dismissal of Nuri Şahin and the appointment of Niko Kovac. Nothing better could have happened to the team currently in fifth place in the standings…

Dortmund – Kiel Tip

Borussia Dortmund is on the verge of saving the 2024/25 Bundesliga season. 90 minutes and a home win with at least a two-goal lead separate BVB from qualifying for the UEFA Champions League again, something fans and experts had already written off a few weeks ago. Thanks to a monster run of 19 points from their last seven games, 23 goals scored in that period, and a team that is suddenly performing completely differently in the basics, Kovac and his protégés have put themselves in a favorable position ahead of the final showdown on Saturday afternoon.

Holstein Kiel, already relegated, are now waiting, having won only two away games all season, but scoring at least one goal in all 16 Bundesliga away games. In addition to a potential bet on both teams scoring, I recommend betting on at least two goals in the first half of the Dortmund vs. Kiel match. BVB will want to nip any doubts in the bud, and I expect the Storks to take a bold approach as well. Nothing stands in the way of a lively match. With a handicap win for Dortmund before the break, you can get 2.12 at NEO.bet.