Another setback for the Yellow Submarine?
Anyone looking at the current Champions League league table will surely intuitively sense that Villarreal CF, who are in 32nd place with only one point out of a possible twelve, are one of the big disappointments of the 2025/26 season. In fact, this feeling can also be proven mathematically, because based on the expected points calculated by Opta, the Yellow Submarine should actually be in 13th place. Since the reality is 19 places worse, not only should the tip for Dortmund vs. Villarreal clearly be on the Westphalians, but it should also be noted that no other team has fallen further short of expectations than the eastern Spaniards.
Nevertheless, La Liga representatives are of course no walkovers, even though BVB knows how to do it. At least at home. After all, the Black and Yellows have lost only three of their last 17 Champions League home games against Spanish clubs (eight wins, six draws), even though they faced far more illustrious opponents such as Real Madrid and Barcelona during that period. We are therefore predicting a home win for Niko Kovac’s Dortmund against Villarreal, who have lost only one of their last 18 CL home games (eleven wins, six draws).
Those who would still prefer to steer clear of the three-way system in view of Westphalia’s two recent draws in the Bundesliga against Hamburg (1-1) and Stuttgart (3-3) can, with a clear conscience, switch to betting on a high-scoring match. After all, nowhere else has there been more spectacle than in BVB matches. Champions League games involving the Black and Yellows have already seen a total of 24 goals (13:11) in 2025/26. That’s an average of six goals per game – the highest in the competition.
Dortmund vs. Villarreal AI prediction
AI generally finds value in the three-way system and calculates a 55.4 percent chance of victory for BVB. However, according to the AI prediction, an even more positive expected value can be found for Dortmund against Villarreal in an Asian handicap of -0.75 on the Westphalians. The AI gives a 49.1 percent probability of this happening, which beats the odds of 2.05 offered by the Bet365 app.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Borussia Dortmund are already nine points behind Bayern in the Bundesliga and were unable to win Saturday’s clash with VfB Stuttgart despite leading 2-0 and 3-2 (final score: 3-3). Overall, however, the Black and Yellows are not only back on course for the Champions League in fourth place, but have also picked up seven out of a possible twelve points in the Champions League itself. That’s not enough for a top-eight spot, but qualification for the knockout stages does not appear to be in jeopardy. Especially if Dortmund’s tip for another home win against Villarreal comes up right.
This is supported by the fact that Dortmund have already faced Spanish teams 42 times in Europe (14 wins, 11 draws, 17 defeats). Although this will be their first competitive match against Villarreal, BVB have performed extremely well against La Liga representatives in the UEFA Champions League, especially at home, losing only three of their 17 home games (eight wins, six draws).
Dortmund with a lot of firepower across the board
BVB’s first four Champions League games have already yielded a total of 24 goals (13 scored, 11 conceded). That is the highest tally after four games in a single edition. It is particularly striking that the team is no longer as dependent on Serhou Guirassy as it was last season, when he scored 13 goals in 14 CL games. While the striker has scored once in four appearances and is well below his previous year’s average (1.02) with 0.32 xG per 90, the burden is now spread across many more shoulders. Ten different Dortmund players have already made it onto the scoresheet, which makes Niko Kovac’s team remarkably difficult to predict.
Villarreal – Statistics & current form
Villarreal CF qualified for the Champions League in fifth place in La Liga. While the Yellow Submarine (Spanish: el submarino amarillo) is continuing its strong form from last season at the national level and is currently in third place, just three points behind leaders Real Madrid, its comeback in the Champions League has been nothing but a disappointment. In the current Champions League table, the men from the Spanish east coast are in 32nd place with one point out of a possible twelve (one draw, three defeats). According to expected points, this is the biggest underperformance. Instead of 32nd place, 13th place was expected (-19 places).
And they haven’t even played against the absolute heavyweights yet. Instead, Marcelino’s players recently lost 1-0 away to the Cypriot minnows Pafos FC. So it’s no wonder that the odds are clearly against the visitors in Dortmund vs. Villarreal, with Bet365 putting the odds of a win at Signal Iduna Park at 4.33.
Villarreal must improve offensively above all else
Although the “only” six goals conceded in the first four games is one of the best records of all teams in the lower half of the table. For example, BVB, who are 18 places higher in the table, have conceded almost twice as many goals (11). However, because the offensive engine stalled, as evidenced by the fact that they have only scored two goals, even the relatively few goals conceded were too many.
There were certainly moments. For example, Nicolas Pépé is one of the few players who can boast double-digit chance creation and double-digit progressive pass values this season (ten chances, eleven progressive passes from open play). However, if efficiency in front of the opponent’s goal does not improve, even such top values will ultimately remain nothing but smoke and mirrors.
Dortmund – Villarreal Head-to-head record
Head to head: 0 – 0 – 0
The two teams have never faced each other in a European competitive match before. There is therefore no direct head-to-head data available that could influence our prediction for Dortmund vs. Villarreal, although it should be noted that BVB have lost only three of their 17 Champions League home games against La Liga representatives (eight wins, six draws).
Dortmund – Villarreal Tip
Although both teams have only faced each other in friendly matches so far, in which the Yellow Submarine mostly fared better, our analyses have revealed little that speaks in favor of the visitors from the east coast of Spain. BVB are stronger in all respects and, with their large number of different goalscorers, are also more difficult to predict than Marcelino’s team, who are doing well at national level but have performed poorly in the Champions League, most recently losing 1-0 to underdogs Pafos.
Although there are also good arguments for avoiding the three-way system and instead betting on a high-scoring game, we therefore recommend a straightforward bet on a home win for the Black and Yellows, who are one of the strongest home teams in Europe. After all, only Bayern and Inter (five percent each) have a lower home defeat rate in the Champions League than Borussia (six percent) since the start of the 2022/23 season.
