Will BVB avoid individual mistakes?
A widespread opinion about Niko Kovac is that his teams often lack solutions in the final third. Physically and defensively, however, the 53-year-old’s teams are rarely criticized. Offensively, however, BVB has shown no problems since his arrival, and the defense is also convincing in the Dortmund vs. Wolfsburg tip.
Borussia have finished three of their last four Bundesliga matches without conceding a goal – as many as in their previous 22 Bundesliga appearances combined. If our Dortmund vs. Wolfsburg prediction is correct, the Black and Yellows will remain at home without conceding a goal in their fourth consecutive Bundesliga home game.
Kovac’s team’s offensive play is working and has been good enough to score two or more goals in each of their last eleven Bundesliga matches. During the week, Borussia even scored four goals away at Juventus Turin (4-4). On average, BVB has scored three goals in their last four competitive matches.
BVB are unbeaten in their last eleven Bundesliga matches (across two seasons) and the home side should remain unbeaten when they look at the Dortmund vs. Wolfsburg odds for the upcoming matchday in their own stadium.
The visitors are particularly wary of injury time. Three of the five goals conceded by VfL in the first three rounds of matches came in injury time. It would be reassuring for our Dortmund vs. Wolfsburg prediction if the Lower Saxony side fell behind early on.
Dortmund vs. Wolfsburg prediction AI
We checked the ratings of our artificial intelligence BETSiE and discovered another recommendation that fits our Dortmund vs. Wolfsburg tip. The bookmakers give a probability of around 66 percent for “both teams to score.” This puts their rating well above the Dortmund vs. Wolfsburg AI prediction.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
After a lackluster performance in the DFB Cup (1-0 vs. Essen), BVB slipped up at the start of the Bundesliga season, squandering a lead against St. Pauli (3-3). The Black and Yellows then corrected their course and won two consecutive Bundesliga matches without conceding a goal (3-0 vs. Union Berlin, 2-0 vs. Heidenheim).
On paper, the 4-4 draw in the Champions League game against Juventus Turin does not strengthen our recommendation, of course, but the number of expected goals conceded (1.53 xGA) mitigates the argument from this performance – especially the first half (0.43 xGA) even reinforces our impression of a stable defense.
Occasional lapses in concentration seem to be part and parcel of Borussia these days, but Niko Kovac’s rehearsed routines are usually spot on. It’s no coincidence that the 53-year-old has collected 2.21 points per Bundesliga game with the Black and Yellows since taking office – currently the best average of any BVB coach.
Controlling dangerous areas
We consider the 3-3 draw against St. Pauli on the first matchday to be an absolute exception. You can find the reasons for this in the in-depth statistics. No Bundesliga team has allowed fewer opponent touches in their own penalty area than the Kiezkickers (49) and BVB (50).
If you exclude penalties, only Bayern (1.64 xGA) and, once again, Alexander Blessin’s team (1.90 xGA) have allowed fewer expected goals than the Black and Yellows (2.04 xGA). In addition, Kovac’s protégés have not yet conceded a goal from a set piece.
This defensive stability is closely linked to the hosts’ high defensive line. Only Mainz has collected more pressing sequences (54) than Kovac’s team (43). Furthermore, only three teams are higher than BVB (Mainz, Gladbach, Bayern). The rest of the defense is excellent – as a reward, they have the second-best ratio of expected goals conceded to shots (0.07 – excluding penalties).
Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form
The Wolves have yet to lose a game in the early stages of this Bundesliga season. Following a 9-0 victory in the DFB Cup (vs. Hemelingen), new coach Paul Simonis celebrated a successful Bundesliga debut against Heidenheim (3-1).
The team from Lower Saxony ended the next two matches with a point each (1-1 vs. Mainz, 3-3 vs. Cologne), with late goals in stoppage time costing them victory in both cases. Now, as guests at Signal Iduna Park, they are facing their first defeat of the season.
Since winning the DFB Cup final in 2015 (3-1), the Wolves have won only two of 21 direct duels with the Black and Yellows (2 draws, 17 losses). Wolfsburg have not won a single Bundesliga match at Signal Iduna Park since 2012.
Different finishing positions
There is a massive difference between the two teams in the quality of the finishing positions they create. If you exclude penalties, Dortmund (6.04 xG) has scored almost twice as many expected goals as VfL (3.77 xG).
The volume of shots taken is often cited to put these figures into perspective. Surprisingly, the visitors have fired off more shots (39) and shots on goal (20) than Kovac’s team (35 shots, 13 shots on the opponent’s goal).
This brings us to the analysis of the ratio of expected goals to shots. In this category, BVB leads the Bundesliga field (0.17) and has a big lead over the next best team (Bayern: 0.13). Wolfsburg is much further behind with 0.10 xG/shot.
Dortmund – Wolfsburg Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
BVB’s record against Wolfsburg has been excellent for years and is getting better with every game. Dortmund has won its last three Bundesliga home games against the Wolves without conceding a goal (11-0 goals). If you extend the period, you will find six clean sheet victories for BVB against Wolfsburg in the last seven Bundesliga home games.
Dortmund – Wolfsburg Tip
Since matchday 27 of last season, only Bayern have collected as many points as BVB in the German top flight (29 each). Top striker Serhou Guirassy has recently impressed in the black and yellow jersey, scoring at least one goal in eight consecutive Bundesliga matches.
So far, Kovac’s protégés have not conceded more than 1.4 expected goals on any matchday and have lowered this figure from week to week. Following their 3-0 win against Union Berlin (1.1 xGA), Borussia conceded only 0.4 expected goals against Union Berlin (2-0 win).
It is interesting to note how rarely the visitors have touched the ball in the opponent’s penalty area so far. Only Heidenheim (32) and HSV (45) have touched the ball in the opponent’s penalty area less often than the Wolves (51). In addition, Simonis’ players have played only half as many passes into the attacking third (317) as the home side (625).
Individually, BVB are superior and history supports the impression of a one-sided affair. Niko Kovac and his focus on aggressive defense will finish off Wolfsburg, so we can expect a “Dortmund win without conceding a goal.”
