Will the hosts celebrate again after a set piece?
In most European leagues, teams are currently preparing for the new season. One of the few exceptions is the Swedish Allsvenskan. There, the teams are in full swing and have recently started the second half of the season. That gives us time for a detailed Elfsborg vs. IFK Göteborg tip.
We consider the results from the last few weeks to be a snapshot in time, which we are disregarding in our Elfsborg vs. IFK Göteborg prediction. Similar to the Elfsborg – IFK Göteborg betting odds, we are giving the home side a slight advantage going into the game, despite their recent run of poor results.
Elfsborg – Statistics & current form
Driven by the ideas of a young man, the hosts usually play efficient football. Coach Oscar Hiljemark has his eye on the details in his second coaching job. He already knows the club from his time as a youth and later professional player. Now the 33-year-old wants to lead the Elegants back to the top.
His points average (1.85 in 54 games) is promising, but the home side’s form is less so. The Elfsborg – IFK Göteborg odds have certainly been revised after only seven points from the previous six games – a plus point in terms of our anticipated result.
However, this inglorious haul does not match the deeper statistics, which suggest a return to better results. The biggest discrepancy is in the team’s output in attack. Elfsborg has failed to score in four of its last five appearances.
Elfsborg is dangerous in front of goal
The Yellow team has a wide range of options in attack. Recently, set pieces have become increasingly important. Four of Hiljemark’s team’s last five goals have come from set pieces. Three of these goals were scored by Rasmus Wikström.
The defender scored both goals in the recent first-half clash, securing a 2-1 win against IFK Göteborg. The first came from a free kick from the left, which he headed in. Following a long throw-in from the right, he finally nodded in the much-celebrated winning goal.
Playing a 3-4-3 system, the hosts have created the most big chances in the league (45). The elegant players are particularly eager to celebrate goals in their own stadium. The fifth-placed team has scored an average of 2.25 goals per home game. In addition, the home side has celebrated at least two goals in 75 percent of its home games.
IFK Göteborg – Statistics & current form
Stefan Billborn is almost 20 years older than his counterpart on the other side. The 52-year-old has been in charge at Gothenburg for just over a year and has collected an average of 1.43 points in 40 games. His team has achieved many encouraging results away from home this season.
Göteborg won three of their last four away games ahead of this match. With 1.88 points per away game, the Blavitt are the third-best away team of the season, despite having a negative goal difference (11:12) away from their own arena. The seventh-placed team focuses its offensive play on positional attacks down the wings. No other team in the league places a greater emphasis on crosses from the wings (331).
Compared to Elfsborg (45), this has led to significantly fewer big chances (26). In addition, eleven other clubs have created better scoring chances than Billborn’s team (21.0 xG) so far. This may be why the third-best away team of the season is the underdog in the Elfsborg vs. IFK Göteborg odds.
Göteborg fights to stay in contention
The visitors have a negative goal difference (21:22) after 16 matchdays. These figures are in line with expectations (21.0:22.7 xG). They lack not only efficiency in front of goal, but also the volume of shots.
Only two teams have taken fewer shots than Anglarna (170) this season. This low number could only be offset by extremely high efficiency. However, this is not the case with 0.09 goals per shot (5th). This is particularly evident in direct duels with Elfsborg.
The visitors (25) are currently four points behind the fifth-placed team (29) in the table, despite their current form. If they can overcome the high pressing (9.09 passes per defensive action – the fourth lowest in the league), their opponents often get the best chances. This will also be the visitors’ downfall in the Elfsborg – IFK Göteborg tip.
Elfsborg – IFK Göteborg Head-to-head record
The results from the last direct encounters are in line with our assessment. Elfsborg won four of the previous six encounters (1D, 1L) and scored “over 1.5 goals” in each of the last two matches (five in total).
Elfsborg – IFK Göteborg Tip
Contrary to the current form curves, we are slightly favoring the home team. Elfsborg has averaged 2.00 points per home game thanks to the second-best home offense in the league (18 goals) and already won the first leg (2-1).
We expect the hosts to be efficient and closer to their expected performance in this match, underlining their second-best shot conversion rate (0.12 goals per shot).
