Will FCH celebrate staying up in Saarland?

After trailing 0-2 at halftime, 1. FC Heidenheim needed a strong second half to salvage a 2-2 draw in Thursday evening’s first leg and secure a favorable position going into the second leg. If the Bundesliga side wins away at Elversberg, it will secure its place in the league. Not insignificant: in four of the five cases in which there has been a draw in the first leg since the reintroduction of the relegation play-offs in 2008, the Bundesliga club has prevailed in the end.

History clearly speaks against SVE. Although the Bundesliga team has only won once in the last seven relegation first legs (three draws, three defeats), the second division team has only prevailed once. The forecast for Elversberg against Heidenheim is therefore risky, as although the Saarlanders have home advantage in the second leg, they finished only sixth in the 2. Bundesliga home table and lost five of their 17 second division home games – just one defeat fewer than near-relegated Preußen Münster (six).

A direct comparison also suggests that the Swabians will manage to stay in the league after all. Three competitive matches have been played between Elversberg and Heidenheim so far, and the Black and Whites are still waiting for their first win (two draws, one defeat). We would not categorically rule out a draw, and extra time also seems quite realistic. However, it seems highly unlikely that FCH will lose in regular time.

Elversberg – Statistics & current form

SV Elversberg goes into the second leg with a slight advantage – not only because of the 2-2 draw in the first leg, but also because of their current form. The Saarlanders are unbeaten in nine competitive games (five wins, four draws). No other club in the Bundesliga or 2. Bundesliga can currently boast such a run. And yet the first leg revealed a weakness that had long been hidden: after 14 games with a maximum of one goal conceded, Elversberg conceded two goals against Heidenheim for the first time – a test for the otherwise stable defense.

Offensively, however, SVE remains extremely dangerous. Fisnik Asllani has 28 points (19 goals, nine assists) – the best record of any player in the current second division season. He was once again decisive in the first leg: one goal, one assist – only the seventh player since the reintroduction of relegation in 2008/09 to achieve this double in a Bundesliga relegation match. Lukas Petkov also proved his accuracy: he was directly involved in three of Elversberg’s last four goals, including the early 1-0 against Heidenheim.

Elversberg could become the 59th Bundesliga club in history

The self-proclaimed village club has never played in a Bundesliga relegation play-off before and now faces a team with a wealth of experience. In their three previous competitive matches against FCH, the Saarlanders have failed to win. In the 2013/14 third division season, they only managed a draw at home. However, if Elversberg beat Heidenheim at home, the Black and Whites would secure promotion to the Bundesliga for the first time in their history, becoming the 59th club to do so.

Historically, however, there is little to suggest that the second division side will prevail: in the last seven first legs of relegation play-offs, only one first division side has won – VfB Stuttgart in 2022/23. Overall, however, second division sides have only prevailed in six of 26 cases in relegation play-offs of this kind. Elversberg must therefore not only defend the small advantage from the first leg, but also play against history.

Heidenheim – Statistics & current form

Heidenheim remains unbeaten in its fourth competitive match against Elversberg. After falling behind 0-2 early on, the team showed morale in the first leg and fought back to a 2-2 draw. It was the first time in over a year that FCH had achieved such a turnaround. Back in April 2024, it was a 3-2 win against FC Bayern. The decisive turning point was a set piece: Tim Siersleben’s goal to make it 1-2 came from a free kick – a typical Heidenheim move. With 10.8 percent of all goals coming from set pieces after free kicks, FCH led the league in this category.

Mathias Honsak scored the final goal to make it 2-2, his eighth goal of the season – joint top scorer in the team alongside Marvin Pieringer. He had only scored in two consecutive games once before: in December against FC Bayern and Basaksehir. With his dynamism, he could also play a key role in the second leg, as could the team’s recent solid away form: two clean-sheet wins in a row at VfB Stuttgart (1-0) and 1. FC Union Berlin (3-0) – a third would be a club record.

History clearly favors Heidenheim

Despite their recent improvement in form, the odds are stacked against Elversberg against Heidenheim. However, Heidenheim have lost only one of their last five competitive games, albeit a heavy 4-1 defeat to Werder Bremen. The other four games were not lost (two wins, two draws).

History clearly favors Schmidt’s team: after a draw in the first leg, the first division team managed to stay up in four of the last five Bundesliga relegation battles. Only Union Berlin managed to turn the tables in 2019 under the old away goals rule. The players from the Ostalb region now want to prevent exactly that – with mentality, set-piece strength, and a final exclamation point at the end of the season…

Elversberg – Heidenheim Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 0 – 2 – 1

Three competitive matches have been played between the two teams so far, and SV Elversberg has never beaten 1. FC Heidenheim (two draws, one defeat). The only previous meeting between the two teams in Saarland ended in a 1–1 draw in the 2013–14 season in the 3. Liga – a result that would now mean extra time.

Elversberg – Heidenheim Tip

The top bookmakers are favoring Elversberg against Heidenheim. However, our preference is clearly for the Bundesliga side, not only from a historical perspective, but also in view of their respective performance data. While SVE performed better away than at home – third in the away table compared to sixth in the home table – it is exactly the opposite for FCH. The Brenzstadters were the weakest Bundesliga team at home in 2024/25 (18th place), but managed to score points in eight of their 17 Bundesliga away games (five wins, three draws) and finished the season above the line in the away table. In addition, the Swabians are unbeaten in three competitive games against the Saarlanders (one win, two draws).

We expect a similarly lively return leg, in which SVE will certainly try everything. However, we don’t see a home win in regular time, given the strong second half the Red and Blues put in last Thursday. Accordingly, the prediction for Elversberg against Heidenheim is double chance X2 with over 1.5 goals, which does not rule out extra time, in which the Saarlanders could well hold their own.