How will the Canarinhos get off the mark?
Just 20 kilometers separate the two clubs, which are based west of the Portuguese capital Lisbon. This is therefore a small derby in which both teams will naturally be aiming for the perfect start to the season.
Basically, the home team is favored to win the match between Estoril and Estrela da Amadora. After all, the Canarinhos took all six points against Estrela last season and scored four goals against the Tricolores in both Primeira Liga Portugal encounters.
However, GD Estoril – who finished the 2024/25 season in a respectable eighth place and had the fifth most dangerous attack in the Portuguese top flight with 48 goals – had a poor preseason. The Canarinhos have not won any of their last five friendly matches (one draw, four defeats) and have failed to score in their last two games.
However, if they can rediscover their attacking prowess, it should still be enough to pick up a point against the team that narrowly avoided relegation. We therefore recommend a combined bet on the double chance 1X with over 1.5 goals.
Estrela da Amadora, on the other hand, only picked up 29 points from 34 league games last season, scoring just 24 goals. No other team was more toothless in attack, which is why it was something of a miracle that the Tricolores managed to stay up. Away from home in particular, almost nothing went right. No other team in the Portuguese top flight won fewer away games (two), scored fewer goals (only six) or picked up fewer points (ten) than the Tricolores, who were also beaten 4-0 by neighbors Estoril on May 17, 2025.
In addition to betting on over 2.5 goals, it is also conceivable to bet on a direct win for the home team, for which odds of 1.95 are available in the Interwetten app for Estoril vs. Estrela da Amadora. However, because the poor results in the preseason have raised some questions, we still prefer the combination of the double chance 1X with over 1.5 goals.
Estoril – Estrela da Amadora Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Since Estrela da Amadora was founded in 2020 as the unofficial successor to CF Estrela Amadora, which was dissolved in 2011, there have only been eight competitive matches between the two clubs. Estrela da Amadora leads the head-to-head record with four wins. However, the last three meetings in the Primeira Liga Portugal have all gone to GD Estoril.
Estoril – Estrela da Amadora Tip
Basically, our prediction for Estoril against Estrela da Amadora is for the home side, who have won all of their last three matches against the Tricolores with a goal difference of 9-2 and took all six points against their relegation-threatened neighbors last season. However, Estoril did not perform particularly well in the preseason, so it remains to be seen how far the Canarinhos have come. The nine departures over the summer have left their mark, while the really big signings have failed to materialize.
Estrela da Amadora also underwent a major shake-up in the summer, which was sorely needed in view of their weak season and near-relegation. However, it is unclear whether the Tricolores will be able to get their recently tame offense back on track, especially since they have only scored two goals in their last three test matches.
The combined double chance bet on 1X with over 1.5 goals therefore covers most eventualities, which we are playing via the handy Merkur Bets app at Estoril against Estrela da Amadora at odds of 1.57 with six units.
