Will the Zöld sasok maintain their top-eight position on the Bosporus?
Ferencvaros Budapest got off to an almost perfect start in the league phase of the UEFA Europa League. The Zöld sasok (English: the Green Eagles) picked up ten out of a possible twelve points and are currently in third place, which would give them a direct ticket to the round of 16. But Fenerbahce has also recovered after its 1-3 defeat in Zagreb and has recently picked up seven out of a possible nine points. If Domenico Tedesco’s team wins at home against Ferencvaros, the Sari Kanaryalar (the Yellow Canaries) will catch up with the Hungarians.
However, the Zöld sasok are certainly strong away from home. Fradi won their last three international competitive games on the road and picked up three points in both Genk (1-0) and Salzburg (3-2) in the league phase. Nevertheless, it should also be noted that Fener’s squad is worth around six times as much as the Hungarians in terms of total market value, which could potentially be reflected on the scoreboard, especially as the visitors are missing three key players due to injury. All in all, we therefore find the greatest value in betting on a home win for the Sari Kanaryalar.
It is also striking that the Istanbulers have beaten two well-known opponents from Europe’s top five leagues in their two Europa League home games so far, Nice (2-1) and Stuttgart (1-0). Against Stuttgart and most recently away at Viktoria Plzen (0-0), the Sari Kanaryalar also kept two clean sheets in a row. Nevertheless, we expect the Zöld sasok, who have scored in all four games so far and are the third-best attack in the EL league phase with eight goals, to at least score a goal on the Bosporus.
Fenerbahce – Ferencvaros Head-to-head record
Head to head: 0 – 1 – 1
The two clubs have crossed paths once before, in the first round of the 1971/72 UEFA Cup. Back then, the first leg in Istanbul ended in a 1-1 draw, after which Ferencvaros secured their ticket to the next round with a 3-1 home win in Budapest. Now, more than 50 years later, the two clubs are set to meet again.
Fenerbahce – Ferencvaros Tip
The Zöld sasok have performed extremely well in the Europa League group stage so far. However, they have yet to face any of the really big heavyweights, whereas the Turks have already sent two teams home without any points, Nice and Stuttgart, who, as representatives of Europe’s top five leagues, are clearly among the favorites, especially since the introduction of the league phase, no teams relegated from the Champions League have joined the Europa League in the winter.
Tedesco’s team is also on a roll domestically (five wins in a row), while Fradi surprisingly lost their dress rehearsal at home on Saturday against relegation-threatened Nyíregyháza 1-3. Although the Hungarians bring a powerful offense to the Bosporus, they also have to compensate for the absence of three regular players. Against this backdrop, our prediction for Fenerbahce vs. Ferencvaros clearly favors the Sari Kanaryalar.
Ferencvaros has won all of its last three European away games. Although it would certainly be a valid approach to bet on a high-scoring Europa League match on the Bosporus, with both teams scoring, we ultimately remain straightforward in our three-way system and recommend betting on Tedesco’s team to win their third home game of the current league phase.
