Will the Old Lady remain undefeated under Luciano Spalletti?
One of the big names in Italian soccer has found itself at the bottom of the table. The Lilies start the Fiorentina vs. Juventus tip as bottom of the table and underdogs. Stefano Piolio led the Violets from the sidelines until the tenth matchday. Only four points were not enough for those in charge, so the subsequent change of coach came as no surprise.
On the other side, the joy of a furious start to the season (three wins from the first three league games) also quickly evaporated. The Old Lady is now coached by 66-year-old Luciano Spalletti. Ahead of our Florence vs. Juventus prediction, the visitors are unbeaten in three competitive games under the Italian coach (1W, 2D).
The Viola have yet to win a single league game and have lost four of their five home games this season. Their goal difference in these matches (5:10) is also disastrous. These figures immediately reveal the hosts’ weakness.
No other Serie A team has conceded more goals than Florence (18). The Lilies also occupy last place in the expected goals against table (16.5 xGA). The attacking play has potential, but the miserable rate of shots on the opponent’s goal (20.8 percent – the worst in the Italian top flight) is and remains an issue.
Another alarming factor is the enormous uncertainty that arises as soon as an opponent’s set piece sails into the Viola’s penalty area. Seven set-piece goals conceded (20th) and 5.52 expected goals conceded from set pieces (19th) also influence our Fiorentina vs. Juventus odds.
Fiorentina vs. Juventus Head-to-head record
The Viola won their last home game in Serie A against Juve by a surprisingly clear margin (3-0). This is an exception if we extend the radius to the last six encounters. The Old Lady won three of the last five matches, each without conceding a goal.
This scenario could happen again this coming weekend. Luciano Spalletti’s team conceded the third fewest expected goals of all Italian first division teams away from home (4.8 xGA) – less than one expected goal per away game.
Fiorentina – Juventus Tip
Converting chances has been a recurring problem for both sides this season. Fiorentina (0.05) and Juve (0.06) need quite a few shots per goal. However, if we add to this the weakness in home defense, Spalletti’s protégés should have plenty of first-class opportunities at their disposal.
On the other hand, the Italian record champions defend their own penalty area quite skillfully and have also shown hardly any weaknesses from set pieces so far. While the Viola have conceded seven goals from set pieces, the Old Lady has only picked the ball out of her own net once following a set piece.
In addition, Fiorentina’s expected goal difference of -1.7 xGD is significantly weaker than that of the visitors (+5.4 xGD), and Juve’s form (4 competitive games unbeaten in a row) is promising. Furthermore, we cannot detect any significant away weakness in the Bianconeri, while La Viola has collected an average of only 0.20 points per home game (20th).
