Will the Brazilians pull the plug on the Blues’ offense?
The ranks have thinned in the expanded Club World Cup, and Fluminense is the only team left that hardly anyone had on their radar beforehand. However, the Brazilians have not only eliminated Inter Milan, but also Al-Hilal, the team that defeated Manchester City. It could therefore prove to be a mistake to recklessly and thoughtlessly predict that Chelsea will reach the final against Fluminense.
The players from the Sugar Loaf Mountain have been particularly impressive defensively. Despite facing high-caliber opponents, the Tricolor have kept a clean sheet in three of their five Club World Cup games. This makes it all the more interesting to predict whether Fluminense can take the wind out of the Londoners’ sails against Chelsea.
The Pensioners cannot afford to be too complacent either, having already suffered a 1-3 defeat against Flamengo Rio de Janeiro in the preliminary round. In this respect, this semi-final is unlikely to be a clash of two systems, with one of the best defenses in the competition coming up against one of the most potent attacks. Instead, it is more likely that the Blues will not go for broke and that we will see a more tactical semi-final in East Rutherford.
Fluminense – Statistics & current form
Fluminense Football Club from Rio de Janeiro has not had the best of times recently. After finishing 13th in the final table of the 2024 Brazilian Série A, they only managed second place in the Rio State Championship. Currently, the Tricolor are only sixth in the Série A after eleven matchdays. The “Time de Guerreiros” (English: the team of warriors) secured their ticket to the Club World Cup by winning the 2023 Copa Libertadores.
Fluminense is the only non-European club to have made it into the last four, where Renato Gaúcho’s team is now keen to take advantage of its underdog status.
Gaúcho will have to do without Freytes and Martinelli
It is certainly not out of the question that Fluminense will beat Chelsea and that the team from the Sugar Loaf Mountain will advance to the final. In the group stage, the Tricolor kept a clean sheet in two of their three games before even knocking out Italian runners-up Inter Milan in the round of 16 with a 2-0 victory over the Nerazzurri. A 2-1 win over Al-Hilal – the club that scored four goals against Manchester City in the round of 16 – extended the Brazilians’ unbeaten run to eleven competitive games (nine wins, two draws).
The Tricolor have conceded just one goal in the knockout stages and have conceded only three goals and kept five clean sheets in their last seven competitive games across all competitions. It is therefore quite possible that the very stable defense, led by Thiago Silva, will once again make the difference in this semifinal, even though Juan Pablo Freytes, another cornerstone of the defensive line, will have to sit out due to a yellow card suspension, as will defensive midfielder Martinelli, who was responsible for the 1-0 win against Al-Hilal in the quarterfinals. These are two significant weaknesses.
Predicted Fluminense line-up:
Fábio – Fuentes, Ignácio, Silva, Manoel, Xavier – Nonato, Bernal, Hércules – Soteldo, Arias
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
Chelsea FC are coming off a very satisfactory season overall, which not only saw them finish fourth in the Premier League table and secure a return to the UEFA Champions League, but also win the Conference League title. This makes the Londoners the only club in Europe to have won all three current UEFA competitions at least once.
The CFC has also won the Club World Cup once before. In 2021, they beat Palmeiras – the same team they knocked out of the quarter-finals this year. A small side note: when Chelsea won the Club World Cup, then-Chelsea player Thiago Silva was named the best player of the tournament – the Brazilian defensive specialist whom the Blues now have to overcome in the semifinals.
Chelsea has a lot of offensive power
The bookmakers believe in the pensioners. At Winamax, where new customers can receive an additional €10 betting voucher on top of the regular new customer promotion, the odds for Fluminense to beat Chelsea in regular time are set at 1.70, making CFC the clear favorite in this semifinal.
No wonder, as the Blues are certainly not lacking in offensive firepower, having scored twelve goals in the tournament so far and failing to score in only one of their last 17 competitive games across all competitions. And yet: Against Benfica Lisbon in the round of 16, the score was only 1-1 after 90 minutes, and it looked like that would be the final result against Palmeiras as well, were it not for a late own goal that sent the Londoners through to the semifinals in regular time. Against this backdrop, it should not necessarily be a goal fest.
Predicted Chelsea lineup:
Sánchez – Cucurella, Colwill, Chalobah, Gusto – Fernández, Santos – Nkunku, Palmer, Neto – Delap
Fluminense – Chelsea Head-to-head record
There has never been an intercontinental competitive match between the two teams before. Consequently, there is no head-to-head data available that could influence our prediction for Fluminense vs. Chelsea in any way.
Fluminense – Chelsea Prediction
In our opinion, the betting odds from the top bookmakers are leaning too heavily toward Chelsea in the match between Fluminense and Chelsea. Although CFC has scored an impressive twelve goals in the tournament so far and has not failed to score in a single game, the Pensioners now have to break down one of the most compact defenses in the competition. The Tricolor conceded only one goal in their two knockout games against Inter Milan (2-0) and Al-Hilal (2-1) and also have a lot to offer defensively, led by experienced defensive leader Thiago Silva, who is now facing his former club.
The Blues must also avoid rushing into things, as a single goal has the potential to decide this semifinal. We therefore expect both teams to play from a solid defensive base, which makes a low-scoring semifinal between Fluminense and Chelsea a likely outcome.
We recommend betting on a maximum of two goals being scored in regular time. Betano offers odds of 1.75 for this, which we are backing with five out of ten possible units.