Will FCA rise again under Baum?

After a change of coach, particular caution is always advised with the three-way system. This was the experience of all tipsters who thought they could make a quick buck last weekend by betting on the strong away team Werkself in the match between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen. Under interim coach Manuel Baum, the Bavarian Swabians won 2-0 and made their comeback in the relegation battle. Therefore, even now, extreme caution is advised when betting on a home win for Hessen in the Frankfurt vs. Augsburg match.

Although the Eagles have lost only one of their last eleven Bundesliga matches against FCA (five wins, five draws), it must also be taken into account that Frankfurt have not won in four competitive matches (one draw, three defeats). After the 6-0 debacle in Leipzig, Frankfurt put up a good fight against FC Barcelona in the Champions League during the week, but once again failed to convert a good performance into points in a 2-1 defeat. Against this backdrop, we think it is quite conceivable to go for the double chance X2.

It is striking that SGE have conceded six goals at the Red Bull Arena, bringing their total to 29 and making them the weakest defense in the Bundesliga. However, Augsburg are also shaky in defense, as evidenced by their 27 goals conceded, which is only surpassed by Hessen and 1. FC Heidenheim (28). Against this backdrop, one might think that value could be found in over bets.

However, we assume the opposite, as the Bavarian Swabians defended at a completely different level in their 2-0 win against Leverkusen, while Frankfurt’s performance at Camp Nou showed that their defense is actually capable of much more than the 29 goals conceded in the Bundesliga would suggest. As a result, we do not expect a goal fest on the Main and recommend betting on under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.53 for Frankfurt vs. Augsburg.

Frankfurt vs. Augsburg Prediction AI

While we are clearly reluctant to bet on a home win for Hessen, given the relatively low odds, the AI prediction sees the greatest value in Frankfurt vs. Augsburg. This implies a probability of 58.1 percent. So anyone who gives SGE an even higher chance of winning is in the value range. Just like AI, which puts the probability of Eintracht winning at 59.6 percent.

Frankfurt – Statistics & current form

After six unbeaten Bundesliga games (three wins, three draws), they suffered their first defeat since the 3-0 loss to Bayern on October 4. They have only lost two games in a row twice this year, most recently in September in Leverkusen and against Union Berlin. However, the 6-0 defeat in Leipzig was their heaviest competitive defeat since March 1996 (6-0 in Dortmund).

Overall, SGE has the weakest defense in the Bundesliga with 29 goals conceded, which is why, from a human perspective, we would refrain from tip 1 for Frankfurt against Augsburg.

Frankfurt is particularly vulnerable after the kickoff

Nevertheless, the Eagles’ home record speaks in favor of a turnaround. The sometimes moody diva from the Main has picked up seven points (two wins, one draw) from its last three Bundesliga home games, conceding only one goal, which in turn supports our bet on a duel that will not be overly high-scoring.

Nevertheless, there is plenty of depth in attack: Toppmöller’s team already has twelve different goalscorers and, with 28 goals this season, is second in the league’s offensive rankings behind Bayern Munich. The downside is their vulnerability in the early stages, which can cause the game to turn against them early on. They have already conceded six goals in the first 15 minutes – the highest number in the league along with Mainz.

Augsburg – Statistics & current form

In their first game under Wagner’s successor Manuel Baum, who will initially only be in charge of FC Augsburg on an interim basis, the Fuggerstadt team made a successful start. Thanks to their 2-0 win against Leverkusen, they now have two wins from their last three league games. That’s as many wins as they had in the previous 15 matchdays. Now they could even get two wins in a row for the first time since March 2025, although the odds of that happening are pretty low, as shown by the best bookmakers’ odds for Frankfurt vs. Augsburg. At the top, LeoVegas offers odds of 4.60 for tip 2.

One reason for this is the Bavarian Swabians’ weakness away from home. Augsburg have been waiting for a win in five Bundesliga away games (one draw, four defeats). Their only three points this season came in their opening game in Freiburg. In Frankfurt, they have only picked up three out of a possible 18 points in their last six away games (three draws, three defeats).

Augsburg needs more focused starts

Defensively, Augsburg is third from bottom in the league with 27 goals conceded, but has shown a positive trend recently: against Leverkusen, they kept their second clean sheet of the season. The last time they kept two clean sheets in a row was in March 2025 (when they actually kept six in a row). In order to keep dreaming of the next clean sheet for as long as possible, the team needs to start the game with focus.

In fact, no other Bundesliga team has conceded as many goals in the first half hour as FCA (nine, like Mainz), or in the first half in general (already 15 – the highest in the league). If they can be more compact here, Manuel Baum could become only the third Augsburg coach after Jess Thorup and Martin Schmidt to win his first two games.

Frankfurt – Augsburg Head-to-head record

Head to head: 24 – 15 – 15

A total of 54 matches have taken place between the two teams so far, with Eintracht Frankfurt leading the head-to-head record with 24 wins. The two teams drew twice in the 2024/25 season. Overall, however, the Eagles have lost only one of their last eleven Bundesliga matches against FC Augsburg (five wins, five draws).

Frankfurt – Augsburg Tip

It is still unclear whether Augsburg’s 2-0 win against Leverkusen in their first game under interim coach Manuel Baum was a one-off or whether the Bavarian Swabians are now capable of turning things around completely. Against this backdrop, we would advise against predicting the outcome of the Frankfurt vs. Augsburg match and steer clear of the three-way system, in which we believe the odds for the favorite are too low. At the same time, it should be noted that AI assesses this differently and sees the highest value in tip 1. All the more reason not to rule anything out in the three-way system.

Considering that FCA showed a massive improvement in performance against Leverkusen, especially defensively, and that SGE also redeemed itself from its 6-0 defeat in Leipzig with a narrow 2-1 loss in Barcelona, we expect a duel in the Main metropolis that is not overly high-scoring. Our recommendation is therefore for a maximum of three goals in the game.