Will Mainz carry their momentum from Europe into the league?

FSV Mainz 05 secured their third consecutive victory in their third Conference League game on Thursday evening and are now at the top of the table after their 2-1 win against Florence. In the Bundesliga, however, things are not going well for Henriksen’s team: they have lost four of their last five Bundesliga games and are only in 17th place – level on points with Heidenheim at the bottom of the table. Things don’t seem to be going well against Eintracht Frankfurt in direct encounters – there has only been one win in the last ten games. Therefore, in our Frankfurt vs. Mainz prediction, we are leaning towards another win for the Hessians.

Frankfurt has also had a positive week: in the Champions League, the Eagles drew 0-0 with Napoli. This was the second draw in a row for SGE after the draw against Heidenheim in the Bundesliga. At home, Frankfurt has had two wins and two losses in four games. What is striking is that in six of their seven home games, the Eagles have scored in the first half. Our Frankfurt vs. Mainz prediction is for another goal from Toppmöller’s team in the first half against Mainz, who are weak in the Bundesliga.

The 05ers have lost their last two away games, scoring only one goal in the process. Overall, they have suffered six defeats in their nine Bundesliga games so far. A highlight in the Rhine-Main derby for Mainz was their last visit to Eintracht – the 3-1 victory was the FSV’s first win after eight winless direct duels.

Frankfurt vs. Mainz AI prediction

Our AI agrees with the Frankfurt vs. Mainz betting odds and sees the hosts from Frankfurt as clear favorites in this duel. The odds and the corresponding probabilities are almost identical – according to the odds, the SGE’s home win is calculated at 55.5%. Our Frankfurt vs. Mainz AI prediction is slightly higher at 56%, thus offering a small amount of value.

Frankfurt – Statistics & current form

Eintracht Frankfurt is currently in strong form. The Hessians have lost only one of their last ten Bundesliga matches against FSV Mainz 05 (four wins, five draws) – only the most recent home game in December 2024 was lost 1-3. Prior to that, SGE had won three consecutive games at home without conceding a goal. Frankfurt last suffered two consecutive home defeats in the Rhine-Main derby in 2019 and 2020.

Dino Toppmöller’s team has also been impressive in terms of consistency across seasons: only three of the last 15 Bundesliga games have been lost (seven wins, five draws). Only Bayern Munich (no defeats) and Borussia Dortmund (one) lost less often in the same period. In addition, only FC Bayern (51 goals) scored more often than Frankfurt (35) during this phase.

Frankfurt scores on offense

With 22 goals so far, Eintracht has the second-best offense in the league behind Bayern (33 goals). In this millennium, the Hessians have only scored more goals after nine matchdays in the previous season (23). The offense has been particularly strong in open play, with Frankfurt scoring 16 goals from open play situations – also the best in the league behind the record champions (23). In our Frankfurt vs. Mainz prediction, we are again forecasting at least two goals for SGE, one of which will come before the break.

In terms of personnel, Rasmus Kristensen is particularly impressive, having recently scored his first goal of the season and already scored twice against Mainz in the top flight – more than against any other club. Defensively, he shines with the most tackles (3.8 per 90 minutes) and the second-most duels won (6.6) within the team. Nathaniel Brown is also impressive, providing his second assist of the season in the latest victory. Since the start of last season, the young defender has already collected eight assists – among all nominal defenders, only Leverkusen’s Alejandro Grimaldo (ten) is ahead of him.

Mainz – Statistics & current form

For 1. FSV Mainz 05, the current Bundesliga season has been sobering so far. After nine games, they have only five points to their name – the second-worst record in the club’s history at this level (along with 2020/21). Mainz had fewer points at the same stage only last season (three points).

The team’s defense is a major cause for concern: Mainz has been waiting for a clean sheet for 20 Bundesliga games – not only is this the club’s current negative record, but also the longest run of conceding goals in the entire league. The team is particularly vulnerable when playing openly: 14 goals conceded in such situations is the third-worst record in the Bundesliga behind Augsburg (17) and St. Pauli (16).

All trends are pointing downwards for Mainz

The team is also lacking efficiency in attack. The Rheinhessen have scored just ten goals with an expected goals value of 12.6 – a deficit of 2.6. Only Heidenheim (-4.0) and HSV (-4.1) are even worse at converting their chances. In addition, Mainz is one of only three teams still waiting for a headed goal this season.

The form curve thus continues to point downward: Mainz has won only two of its last 15 Bundesliga games (five draws, eight defeats) – only Borussia Mönchengladbach was winless during this period. There is also a striking contrast to their opponents Frankfurt in terms of structure: with an average age of 28 years and 261 days, Mainz has the oldest starting eleven in the league – an indication of experience, but also of a possible lack of dynamism in their play.

Jonathan Burkardt brings an emotional note to the upcoming duel: the striker is FSV’s record goalscorer in the top flight with 41 goals in 136 Bundesliga games, but is now facing his former club for the first time as a Frankfurt player. Burkardt has scored twice in each of his last two consecutive starts, so we’re betting he’ll score against his former club. The Frankfurt vs. Mainz odds for another goal are 1.88 in the Betano app.

Frankfurt – Mainz Head-to-head record / H2H balance

The head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been remarkably even over the years. The two clubs have met 46 times in total – 34 times in the Bundesliga, eight times in the 2. Bundesliga, twice in the DFB-Pokal and twice in the Ligapokal. The record slightly favors Eintracht Frankfurt, who have won 16 of these matches. Nineteen encounters ended in a draw, while FSV Mainz 05 won eleven.

Frankfurt also has a slight advantage in terms of goal difference: the Hessians have scored 68 goals in all competitions, while Mainz has scored 56. The goal difference (68:56 in favor of Eintracht) also reflects Frankfurt’s slight dominance, although the high number of draws shows that the Rhine-Main derby is traditionally hard-fought and usually very evenly matched. Nevertheless, according to the bookmakers’ predictions, Frankfurt is now considered the clear favorite against Mainz.

Frankfurt – Mainz Tip

Frankfurt is naturally the favorite going into this match, having lost only one of its last ten Bundesliga matches against FSV. They are in a solid 8th place in the league with 14 points. However, they have the second-best offense after Bayern and have only failed to score at home against the aforementioned record champions – in the other six home games, they always scored in the first half.

Mainz, on the other hand, have won only two of their last 15 Bundesliga games and are in 17th place in the table – losing four of their last five games in the league. Their away form offers a small ray of hope: Mainz have picked up four of their five points so far this Bundesliga season on the road. They will also be reunited with Jonathan Burkardt, who has scored twice in his last two starts.