Will the Sport-Club get off to a good start?
With a 4-3 away win at VfL Wolfsburg, SC Freiburg ended the 2025 calendar year on a high note and returned to the upper half of the table. However, they are still six points behind a European spot. Hamburger SV, meanwhile, are four points behind in a satisfactory 13th place in the table, which gives the returning team a four-point cushion above the relegation zone.
However, if Freiburg beat HSV at home, that Hanseatic cushion could shrink significantly.
There are several reasons to believe that the North Germans will stumble in Breisgau. Not only is the Sport-Club extremely strong at home, as evidenced by the fact that the Black Forest team has not lost a home game in ten competitive matches (seven wins, three draws), but the Hanseatic team has also performed well below par away from home. The Rothosen have picked up just two points out of a possible 21 away from home, which also influences our prediction for Freiburg vs. HSV. Basically, we consider the tip for a Freiburg home win to be a good bet.
One major difficulty for Hamburger SV is likely to be scoring an away goal at the Europa Park Stadium. After all, the Bundesliga newcomers have scored just three goals in seven away games in the top flight of German soccer. Against this backdrop, the odds for under goals are quite interesting in Freiburg vs. HSV, although we would categorically prefer not to rule out a third goal. A good hybrid solution is the Asian line on under 2.75 goals, for which the Bet365 app is offering odds of 1.77.
Freiburg vs. HSV Prediction AI
While we favor the home-strong Breisgau team from a human perspective, AI goes for the underdog bet from a purely mathematical point of view. Since the odds for an HSV away win are so high, AI ultimately senses the greatest value here. The odds of 4.90 currently available at Bet-at-home suggest a probability of 20.4 percent. Because the AI prediction for Freiburg vs. HSV gives Hamburg a 22.2 percent chance of winning, we are in the value range according to AI. However, caution is advised if the odds drop. As soon as the odds for tip 2 fall below 4.50, there is suddenly a negative expected value.
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
After a somewhat bumpy start, SC Freiburg has recently been doing better again. Not only did the Black Forest team advance to the quarterfinals of the DFB Cup, where they are clear favorites away at Hertha BSC in February, but the Sport-Club is also on course for the round of 16 in the Europa League group stage, sitting fifth in the table with 14 out of a possible 18 points.
In the Bundesliga, meanwhile, they have already suffered five defeats in their first 15 league games (five wins, five draws). However, a 1-1 draw at home against Borussia Dortmund was followed shortly before the winter break by a 4-3 win at VfL Wolfsburg, which saw Julian Schuster’s side return to ninth place – and thus into the top half of the table.
Freiburg remarkably strong at home recently
The Black Forest team’s big asset is their home strength. The Breisgauers have not lost in ten home games across all competitions (seven wins, three draws), which is why the odds offered by betting providers with German licenses are clearly in favor of Schuster’s team in the match between Freiburg and HSV. After all, the offense, which had been struggling somewhat at the beginning, has recently been delivering consistently again. SCF has scored a whopping ten goals in the last four Bundesliga match days, which only FC Bayern has surpassed (14) during this period.
Last but not least, Freiburg is not exactly known for getting off to a bad start.
Only once in the last six attempts did the Sport-Club lose its first league game after the winter break (three wins, two draws). But when they did, it was a resounding 6-0 defeat at VfL Wolfsburg in 2023…
HSV – Statistics & current form
As six-time German champions and former winners of the European Cup, Hamburger SV naturally have high expectations. However, after a long interlude in the 2nd Bundesliga, their modest goal for the season after returning to the top flight of German soccer is to avoid relegation. The Rothosen went winless twice in a row before the winter break (one draw, one defeat). However, with a total of 16 out of a possible 45 points, Merlin Polzin’s men are on target and lie in 13th place.
They are four points ahead of the relegation spot, which is occupied by city rivals St. Pauli. If Freiburg’s prediction that the North Germans will win a point in Breisgau comes true, this point could potentially widen the gap at the bottom of the table, especially as the Kiezkickers have a tricky home game against RB Leipzig coming up.
HSV lacks offensive punch
However, HSV’s disastrous away record speaks against them. The Rothosen have earned 14 of their 16 points in front of their home crowd. Outside Hamburg’s city limits, they have earned just two of a possible 21 points. This puts the promoted team at the bottom of the Bundesliga away table. Particularly worrying is the fact that Hamburg have scored just three goals on the road – the lowest tally in the league.
Overall, however, the team has struggled in attack, with only 16 goals from 15 league games, a tally surpassed only by the bottom three teams, St. Pauli, Heidenheim, and Mainz (13 each). There is room for improvement, particularly when it comes to set pieces. HSV is the only Bundesliga team still waiting for its first goal from a corner in 2025/26 and has also scored the fewest set-piece goals in the current season (only three). Meanwhile, only FC Bayern (14) has scored more than Freiburg’s twelve goals from set pieces, which could well tip the scales in this match.
Freiburg – HSV Head-to-head record
Head to head: 10 – 14 – 16
A total of 40 competitive matches have been played between the two teams so far, and with 16 wins, Hamburger SV still leads the head-to-head record, although SC Freiburg has eliminated the Rothosen twice in a row in the DFB Cup. Previously, however, there had only been one victory for the Black Forest team against the Hanseatic team in eight consecutive Bundesliga matches (five draws, two defeats).
Freiburg – HSV Tip
One of the strongest home teams in the Bundesliga welcomes the bottom team in the away table. Accordingly, our prediction for Freiburg vs. HSV is a clear home win for the Black Forest team, especially since the Rothosen have not only remained completely winless in seven Bundesliga away games (two draws, five defeats), but have also scored only three goals on the road.
The Sport-Club, on the other hand, has lost only one of its seven Bundesliga home games in the 2025/26 season and is unbeaten in ten games across all competitions at the Europa Park Stadium, the predecessor to the SCF’s current stadium (seven wins, three draws).
It is therefore very promising, despite the winter break, which could potentially shift the momentum in both camps, to stick with the three-way system and bet on a home win for the Breisgauers, who may not have a particularly good record against Hamburger SV overall, but who have recently knocked the Rothosen out of the DFB Cup twice in a row.
