Will LFC storm the cauldron of Istanbul?

If you ask Chat GPT who will win the 25/26 Champions League, the artificial intelligence’s answer, based on multiple simulations, historical results, squad quality, and market values, points toward Liverpool. The Champions League betting odds further support this assessment, as betting providers also give the reigning English champions the best chances of winning the trophy. Ahead of their first away game in the league phase against the bottom team in the 36-club main field, the tip for Galatasaray vs. Liverpool should really be a mere formality…

However, the situation ahead of Tuesday evening’s exciting clash is not quite as trivial and obvious as it seems. On the one hand, because the Turkish title holders have been eagerly awaiting this match for many weeks and want to pull off a surprise coup with their own fans behind them. On the other hand, the Galatasaray vs. Liverpool prediction must also take into account the fact that the Slot XI suffered their first setback at the national level over the weekend.

The fact that the odds are still clearly in favor of Florian Wirtz and Co. ahead of Galatasaray’s match against Liverpool is certainly also due to Cimbom’s 1-5 defeat in Frankfurt in their opening game. Nevertheless, it must be said that coach Okan Buruk’s team was by no means four goals worse than SGE. With a little more luck, something would certainly have been possible.

Nevertheless, I believe that LFC holds all the cards and that its performance will determine who leaves the field as the winner. Those who do not want to take this risk will find strong betting odds on over goals in the Interwetten app. It is bound to be an entertaining and atmospheric evening at Rams Park in Istanbul.

Galatasaray vs. Liverpool AI prediction

The estimated probability of victory of 60.2% roughly corresponds to the probabilities based on the betting odds, so there is no value to be found in the three-way market. The best option is therefore to consider an over bet. The predicted xG values add up to 3.48 expected goals (1.27 vs. 2.21), which is why the Galatasaray vs. Liverpool AI prediction at Bet365 is for over 3.25 at top odds of 1.87.

Galatasaray – Statistics & current form

It has been over seven years since Galatasaray last won a CL home game. In September 2018, the Turks won 3-0 against Lokomotiv Moscow in the opening game of the group stage. In the last eight Champions League matches in front of their home crowd, however, they have only managed four draws (and four defeats). It is unlikely that this dry spell will come to an end on Tuesday evening, as the Galatasaray vs. Liverpool betting odds suggest that Buruk’s team are clear underdogs.

Galatasaray is delighted: Osimhen is back!

And that’s despite the fact that “Cimbom” has not put a foot wrong in the Süper Lig so far. They have seven wins after seven matchdays, with a goal difference of 19:2. Ahead of next Monday’s derby against Besiktas, everything points to a successful and confident title defense for the Yellow-Reds. The dress rehearsal on Friday evening at Alanyaspor also ended in a 1-0 victory. Almost more important than the win, however, was the realization that Victor Osimhen came on as a substitute in the 84th minute, making his comeback after a long injury break.

The Nigerian adds an extra dimension to the already strong Gala offense, although he will only be used as a substitute on Tuesday at most. Nevertheless, the Lions’ attack has nothing to fear from the international competition. At home against LFC, I believe the Turkish champions are capable of scoring again. In general, it would be a sensible approach to predict that both Galatasaray and Liverpool will score.

Liverpool – Statistics & current form

With 15 points from six Premier League games, Liverpool FC continues to lead the table in England. However, the Reds suffered their first defeat of the season at the weekend. A last-minute goal saw LFC lose 2-1 away to Crystal Palace. Professional pessimists would now claim that the first loss of points had been on the cards for weeks. In fact, despite five wins from five games so far this season, coach Arne Slot’s team still has some work to do. Admittedly, given their impressive record, this is nitpicking at a high level, which is certainly also due to the ultra-high expectations – considering the summer transfers.

Liverpool’s defense is giving coach Slot headaches

At least the offense can be relied upon, having scored at least once in every competitive game so far. Combined with a defense that has looked vulnerable, conceding exactly two goals in four of seven matches in the league or Champions League, goals seem inevitable on Tuesday evening in Istanbul.

This is especially true given the impressions from the first Champions League game at home against Atletico Madrid, in which—after LFC took a 2-0 lead—it also took a last-minute goal from Virgil van Dijk to secure all three points at Anfield with a 3-2 win. Two weeks ago against Simeone’s team, three goals were scored in the first 45 minutes. This time, I’m checking the odds between Galatasaray and Liverpool for at least two goals before the half-time whistle.

Finally, it’s interesting to note that Liverpool have won 13 of their last 14 Champions League games in the group or league phase. The last team to keep a clean sheet against the Reds in a non-knockout game was Atalanta Bergamo almost six years ago. Galatasaray will in all likelihood not be able to end this streak. Instead, the courageous Turks are likely to reach their limits against the deluxe offense of Wirtz, Isak, Gakpo, Salah, and colleagues.

Galatasaray – Liverpool Head-to-head record / H2H balance

The clubs have faced each other four times on the international stage so far. The record is absolutely balanced, with one win each for both teams and two draws. Nevertheless, the H2H should be taken with a grain of salt, especially since the last meeting dates back to December 2006. Some of the players who took to the field on Tuesday evening had never played against each other before… However, it should not be completely overlooked that LFC have failed to win either of their previous two away games at Galatasaray. Only at Chelsea FC and in Naples have the Reds played more away games in the Champions League without securing a win.

Galatasaray – Liverpool Tip

After the crushing 5-1 defeat in Frankfurt, which was certainly too high and can be explained in part by a bitter game, Galatasaray is already under pressure in a way in their home game against Liverpool. Another defeat would dramatically worsen the Turks’ position after just the first quarter of the Champions League group stage. However, I have little hope for the hosts’ chances. I even fear that “Cimbom” may be a little over-motivated in front of their home crowd. A wild game is likely to play into the hands of the better-quality team from England.

With four goals scored in the first 45 minutes of the first gala game in the Main metropolis and three in LFC’s opener against Atletico Madrid, I expect that we will see at least two goals before halftime in this direct duel. My Galatasaray vs. Liverpool tip is therefore for over 1.5 (1st half). Alternatively, you can find 1.70 for an away win in the Betano app and a whopping 2.68 for the match combo “Liverpool win & both teams to score” at Bet-at-home.