Will the Colchoneros stumble in the small derby?
When people talk about the two faces of Atletico Madrid, it’s not just a cliché, it’s a fact. While the Colchoneros lead the La Liga home table and have picked up 19 out of a possible 21 points in front of their home crowd, they have won only one of their five away league games in the 2025/26 season (three draws, one defeat) and are tenth in the away table.
Against this backdrop, it’s not so far-fetched to consider betting on Getafe to win or draw against Atlético Madrid, especially since the Madrid suburbs team just beat the big club from the capital 2-1 in their last home game at the Estadio Coliseum.
Admittedly, that defeat for the Rojiblancos must be put into context, as it was in fact the Colchoneros’ only defeat against the suburbanites in the last 28 mini-derbies against Getafe (22 wins, 5 draws). However, the whole truth is that the Azulones are strong at home and have lost only one of their five La Liga home games in 2025/26 (two wins, two draws) – a 0-1 defeat to Real Madrid, in which Bordalas’ defensively very stable team was only overcome in the final stages when they were down to ten men. In our opinion, the match combo on the double chance 1X with under 3.5 goals is therefore very promising in the Getafe vs. Atletico Madrid prediction.
Those who are not prepared to take the risk of betting on a win for the Azulones can alternatively simply bet on a low-scoring league game. After all, both teams have their strengths in defense. While the Azulones have conceded only four goals in five La Liga home games, the Colchoneros have conceded only eleven goals in twelve league games.
Getafe – Atletico Madrid Head-to-head record
Head to head: 5 – 10 – 30
The two teams have played each other 45 times in competitive matches, with Atletico Madrid leading the head-to-head record by a clear margin with 30 wins. The Colchoneros have only been defeated five times by their Madrid neighbors – but, significantly, this was in their last away game at the Estadio Coliseum, when Getafe beat the Rojiblancos 2-1 on March 9, 2025. It was the Azulones’ first win against Atletico since 2011.
Getafe – Atletico Madrid Tip
We can only partially understand why the betting odds of the top bookmakers are so clearly in favor of the visitors in the match between Getafe and Atletico Madrid.
At Interwetten, odds of just 1.77 are being paid out for a Rojiblancos win, which in our opinion is far too low considering that, on the one hand, the Azulones have lost only one of their five La Liga home games in 2025/26 (two wins, two draws) while conceding only four goals, while the Colchoneros have only recorded one away win in five league games on the road (three draws, one defeat).
It is clear that the Madrid derby is likely to be low-scoring, as both teams’ core strength lies in defense. This makes it all the more interesting to bet on Getafe to win points against Atlético Madrid, which can be combined very promisingly with a bet on a derby that is not too high-scoring.
