Will Atletico leave Montilivi as winners?
Antoine Griezmann has enjoyed changing his hairstyle in recent years, but has consistently maintained his goal-scoring instinct and instinct on the pitch. The 34-year-old now plays significantly fewer minutes (42 percent of La Liga playing time), but has returned to the spotlight ahead of the Girona vs. Atletico Madrid tip.
On the last matchday in the Spanish Primera Division, the technically skilled Frenchman picked a high pass into the penalty area out of the air with the tip of his foot and finished brilliantly to score the 2-1 winner against Valencia. Just a few days later, he led the Rojiblancos to victory with two goals in the Copa del Rey against Atletico Baleares (3-2). In our Girona vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, the Colchoneros are now aiming for their fourth competitive win in a row.
Without this additional support, a small value boost in the form of a match combination is needed to make a three-pointer for the visitors appealing.
To do this, we are looking at the visitors’ recent results. Diego Simeone and his team have won their last three competitive games in a row, scoring over 1.5 goals in each. Atleti also conceded at least one goal in all three games.
All in all, 13 goals were scored in the Colchoneros’ three previous matches (8:5), or 4.33 goals per game. The comparison with relegation candidates Girona could also go in this direction. The hosts are currently stuck in 18th place in the table. Defensively, the Blanquivermells often lack structure.
Nevertheless, we must praise the form of the hosts. Head coach Michel and his protégés have lost only one of their last five La Liga games.
Girona – Atletico Madrid Head-to-head record
Recently, this matchup has rarely disappointed fans of high-scoring encounters. Atletico Madrid dominated the previous three meetings, winning three times in a row and scoring “over 2.5 goals” each time (4-0, 3-0, 3-1). The Rojiblancos have had noticeable difficulties away from home this season.
However, the trend in recent weeks points to an improvement. After defeats in Barcelona (1-3) and Bilbao (0-1), the Colchoneros won their two subsequent away games in Eindhoven (3-2, Champions League) and against Atletico Baleares (3-2, Copa del Rey).
Girona – Atletico Madrid Tip
Girona likes to sit deep in their own half this season, allowing the most passes per defensive action (17.0 PPDA) and starting their pressing with the deepest defensive line of any La Liga team (38.5 m in front of their own goal).
There are many indications that Madrid will dominate the game, as they create the best chances on average in the Spanish top flight (0.13 xG/shot). Both from open play and set pieces, Diego Simeone’s players have figured out the right formula to torment defenses.
In addition, the visitors bring enormous quality to the game from the bench. Apart from Diego Simeone, there is currently no other coach in La Liga who prefers to bring players on from the bench (84 substitutions made). The explanation for this is quite simple. The 55-year-old has already scored eight goals from his substitutes – the best in the league.
What’s more, the Colchoneros face the weakest expected defense in the Spanish Primera Division (29.1 xGA). Girona has already conceded 17 shots after its own mistakes – only Villarreal has invited opponents to shoot more often (19).
