Will the Foals confirm their upward trend in the derby?

After 15 Bundesliga games in a row without a win, Borussia Mönchengladbach celebrated a 4-0 away win at FC St. Pauli last weekend. It was the highest away win ever achieved by a team currently at the bottom of the Bundesliga and at the same time a clear signal to 1. FC Cologne. In the Rhineland derby against their archrivals, they now hope to end their eight-game winless streak at home in the Bundesliga (three draws, five defeats). There are certainly factors that favor Gladbach against Cologne, even though Effzeh have lost only one of their last seven away games at Borussia-Park (four wins, two draws).

The Billy Goats have only scored six goals away from home, but that was enough to earn them seven out of a possible 15 points on the road. Only five other teams have earned more away points than the Cathedral City team, so we definitely believe they are capable of a good result in the Rhineland derby. As Saturday evening’s game could quickly become heated, we find the greatest value in Gladbach vs. Cologne in the prediction that both teams will score.

It is also interesting to note that the Billy Goats often turn up the heat in the final stages, which could be a particularly heated phase in a derby. No other Bundesliga team scored more goals in the final quarter of an hour in 2025/26 than Effzeh (seven already), which is why we find a lot of value in Gladbach vs. Cologne at odds of 1.90 at Betway on the betting option that a goal will be scored in the Rhineland derby between the 76th and 90th minutes – regardless of which side scores.

Gladbach vs. Cologne Prediction AI

Although the Foals have won only one of their last seven Bundesliga home games against Effzeh (two draws, four defeats), the AI prediction for Gladbach vs. Cologne is a home win for the team from the Lower Rhine. For tip 1, the Betway app for iOS and Android offers odds of 2.20, which implies a probability of 45.5 percent. AI, on the other hand, calculates a 48.6 percent chance of victory for the Foals. That is a good three percent higher and creates a positive expected value.

Gladbach – Statistics & current form

Borussia Mönchengladbach has been able to carry the confidence gained in the DFB Cup into the Bundesliga and, under interim coach Eugen Polanski, end a 15-game winless streak in the league, which it now hopes to confirm in the derby. If Gladbach beat Cologne at home, they could climb out of the relegation zone just in time for the international break.

This is supported by the fact that Gladbach has celebrated by far the most Bundesliga victories against 1. FC Cologne (52 wins, 18 draws, and 28 losses in 98 matches). However, of the last seven games, only one went to the Foals (two draws, four losses) – the 5-2 home win in October 2022.

Will Gladbach now end their home drought?

The 4-0 win at FC St. Pauli on matchday nine broke several spells and marked the end of a run of 15 Bundesliga games without a win. It was also the highest away win since May 2019 and the most decisive triumph by a bottom-of-the-table team on the road in Bundesliga history. Nevertheless, the home front remains a problem: Borussia has gone eight Bundesliga home games without a win (three draws, five defeats). Only two points from five home games is actually a new club record low.

Haris Tabakovic bears a lot of responsibility due to Tim Kleindienst’s long-term injury: he scored his first brace in St. Pauli and scored five of Gladbach’s ten goals, i.e. 50 percent. No other team – not even Bayern Munich – was as dependent on one player in 2025/26 as the Foals.

Cologne – Statistics & current form

1. FC Köln are coming to Mönchengladbach with momentum on their side. Fourteen points from nine games currently put Effzeh in seventh place. In the last six Bundesliga promotions, the cathedral city club always had fewer points at this stage. In fact, the only better result this millennium was in 2016/17 (18 points, finishing fifth).

In direct matches against Borussia, things have gone well recently. Only one of the last seven games against the team from the Lower Rhine has been lost (four wins, two draws), which is why the odds for Gladbach against Cologne are not entirely uninteresting.

Will Cologne launch a final offensive in Gladbach too?

Lukas Kwasniok’s team brings a stable physique and, as a result, enormous power in the final stages. Seven goals in the final quarter of an hour – not even Bayern (also seven) can beat that in the league. When it comes to substitutes, Said El Mala stands out as the only player in the league to have scored three goals as a substitute.

However, the downside is also clear: Effzeh have already conceded eight goals from set pieces (only Hoffenheim have conceded more). Two-thirds of all goals conceded came from set pieces – the highest percentage in the Bundesliga. This is exactly what needs to be addressed in order to send their archrivals back into crisis in the Rhineland derby.

Gladbach – Cologne Head-to-head record

Head to head: 61 – 25 – 46

The Rhineland derby between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln has taken place 132 times in total, with the Foals leading the head-to-head record very clearly with 61 wins. Recently, however, the duel has been predominantly in the hands of the Billy Goats, who have defeated their archrivals in four of the last seven encounters (two draws, one defeat).

Gladbach – Cologne Tip

The Foals had two liberating wins last week: their 3-1 home victory against KSC in the cup was followed by a 4-0 win at FC St. Pauli, which saw Borussia move off the bottom of the table. This makes Gladbach’s derby win against Cologne an interesting prospect, which is also suggested by AI. Nevertheless, with eight Bundesliga home games without a win (three draws, five defeats), the three-way system carries too many risks for us to risk the tip from a human perspective.

Instead, there are many indications that this derby will be a heated affair. The Foals’ last home game against the Billy Goats on March 9, 2024, ended in a spectacular 3-3 draw. In addition, there have been goals on both sides in all but one of the last nine meetings between the two clubs.

For both teams to score in Saturday evening’s floodlit game, Gladbach vs. Cologne betting odds of 1.50 are available in the clear Bet-at-home app, which we are betting on with six out of ten units.