How deep are the Foals in trouble?
The evidence is mounting – in the Gladbach vs. Freiburg tip, one team is in crisis. Borussia from the Lower Rhine fired their coach, and the sporting director followed suit shortly afterwards at his own suggestion. There have been no special emotions after a Bundesliga victory for twelve games across two seasons.
Just in time for the Gladbach vs. Freiburg prediction, the hosts are at the bottom of the Bundesliga table for the first time since September 2015 (also after five match days). Interim coach Eugen Polanski continues to lead the team onto the field despite their embarrassing performance against Frankfurt (4-6).
Home games have not been a lifeline either recently – BMG has won only one of its last ten Bundesliga appearances at Borussia-Park. In total, the bottom-of-the-table team’s defense has conceded ten goals in its last two home games.
We weren’t surprised when we saw the Gladbach – Freiburg betting odds and noticed that Bet365, among others, had the hosts as slight favorites. This assessment becomes even more curious when you look at SCF’s recent Bundesliga away performances.
Julian Schuster and his team have lost only one of their last nine away games in the German top flight (6W, 2D, 1L) and collected 20 out of a possible 27 points. Anyone who wants to take advantage of the Gladbach vs. Freiburg odds could aim for a “Freiburg win” with an Admiralbet free bet without deposit.
Gladbach vs. Freiburg AI prediction
Gladbach has not won a single game against Freiburg in their last eight Bundesliga encounters (4D, 4L). The last three direct encounters in the German top flight have all ended in victory for SCF. Our artificial intelligence BETSiE has calculated added value for a bet on a “Freiburg win” in its Gladbach vs. Freiburg prediction.
Gladbach – Statistics & current form
Eugen Polanski has adjusted the Foals’ formation, switching from the previous 4-2-3-1 basic formation to a 3-4-2-1 system. The first appearance against Leverkusen looked promising (1-1). Gladbach looked much more aggressive than in previous games and earned their second point of the season.
Last weekend, BMG suddenly collapsed completely in the first half against Frankfurt. The Foals conceded 2.23 expected goals, created hardly any offensive chances themselves (0.12 xG) and were 5-0 down at halftime in their own stadium.
Eugen Polanski’s charges rallied in the second half and made the result look a little better (4-6), but the problems are undeniable. Only against Frankfurt (19.40 percent) and Hoffenheim (18.33 percent) did opposing teams convert a higher percentage of shots than against Gladbach (18.18 percent).
The search continues
It is not easy to paint a complete picture of Borussia’s crisis in the Lower Rhine region. So far, only six teams have conceded fewer shots than BMG (66). Nevertheless, only four teams have allowed more shots on their own goal than Gladbach (30).
The hosts have conceded 0.12 expected goals per shot and have conceded the third-most goals in the league (12). 83.3 percent of these goals were conceded in front of the fans at Borussia-Park. However, there has been no particular phase in which the bottom-of-the-table team has regularly fallen apart. If you divide the 90 minutes of playing time into 15-minute sections, the home team has conceded one or more goals in each period.
Up front, captain Tim Kleindienst is sorely missed and is not expected to return to the pitch until November. Nevertheless, there is cautious cause for optimism: apart from Bayern, Frankfurt, and Dortmund, no Bundesliga team has had more shots on goal than Borussia from the Lower Rhine (28).
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
SCF has come through its first two Europa League appearances unscathed. The Breisgauers celebrated a 2-1 home win against Basel in their opening game. This was followed by a 1-1 draw in their Bundesliga home game against Hoffenheim, before the second EL matchday during the week produced a 1-1 draw against Bologna.
Schuster’s team’s offensive play does not necessarily offer any outstanding elements, but the structures produce high-quality scoring chances. Freiburg has scored at least one goal in all eight competitive games of the current season. The team from the Black Forest even finished three of its last five competitive games with at least two goals of its own.
In our Gladbach vs. Freiburg prediction, we once again expect SCF to score over 1.5 goals. With the exception of Dortmund (0.16), no Bundesliga team has scored more expected goals per shot in the first five rounds than Julian Schuster’s team (0.15). When SCF appears in front of the opponent’s goal, it almost always becomes dangerous.
Clear structures
Julian Schuster always sets up his players optimally for the upcoming opponent. The ability to develop specific match plans has become a trademark early in his coaching career and led Freiburg to European competition last season.
The Breisgauers got off to a bad start to the season (two defeats in two games), but they didn’t let that unsettle them. The visitors then took seven out of a possible nine points from their last three Bundesliga games and climbed steadily up the Bundesliga table.
Schuster’s players usually opt for a low-key approach. 15.1 passes per defensive action (13th) and an average starting distance of 39.0 meters in front of their own goal (14th) are figures that underline this approach. However, this does not always bring great security – Freiburg has only finished one of its last seven competitive games without conceding a goal.
Gladbach – Freiburg Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The last few encounters have always had something to offer. Lots of action in the penalty area and four consecutive games with “over 2.5 goals” are a good starting point for our Gladbach vs. Freiburg prediction. Three of these four previous matches even ended with “over 3.5 goals.”
Gladbach – Freiburg Tip
The home side cannot afford many more winless games, otherwise the gap to safety will become too big early in the season. Their offense is largely based on headers. Gladbach have scored four of their five goals this season with headers – the best record in the league.
This is a systematic approach. Apart from Mainz (103), no other Bundesliga team has delivered more crosses into the penalty area this season than Borussia from the Lower Rhine (83). The home side also pose a threat from set pieces.
The Foals have scored four of their five goals this season from set pieces – only the German record champions and Eintracht Frankfurt have scored more (5 set-piece goals each). However, no other Bundesliga team has scored more expected goals from offensive set pieces than BMG (3.22 xG).
But of course, the uncertainty is palpable in all areas of the field. Freiburg are traveling with confidence, unbeaten in five competitive games (3W, 2D) and having scored in every competitive game. This could lead to another setback for the home side.
