How will the Rothosen fare in their return to the top flight?

Hamburger SV is back in the Bundesliga and will play its first game in the top flight in seven years against the same opponent against whom the Rothosen played their last Bundesliga game before relegation (2-1 home win): Borussia Mönchengladbach. The Hanseatic side has lost only one of its last seven Bundesliga matches against the Foals (four wins, two draws).

However, that one defeat came in their last away game in the Lower Rhine region, which is why betting on Gladbach against HSV carries a high risk, with the North Germans looking to make a successful return to the top flight of German soccer.

The team from the Lower Rhine, on the other hand, has not won in seven Bundesliga games (two draws, five defeats), but has rarely shown any weakness against promoted teams. The Foals have lost only one of their last ten Bundesliga games against teams that were in the second division last season (three wins, six draws). It therefore makes sense to avoid predicting the outcome of the game between Gladbach and HSV and instead bet on a high-scoring game at Borussia-Park.

Offensive firepower was already the Hanseatic team’s trump card last season and guaranteed their long-awaited return to the top flight of German football. They scored 78 goals in the second division, the highest number in the league. Meanwhile, only Fürth (24) scored more goals from set pieces (22). Interestingly, Gladbach was the Bundesliga club that conceded the third-most goals from set pieces in 2024/25 (20).

It is quite possible that the two traditional clubs will therefore engage in a heated battle, which is why we are willing to take a little more risk for an attractive expected value and bet on over 3.5 goals at Borussia-Park.

Gladbach vs. HSV prediction AI

Supercomputer BETSiE also expects plenty of goals in this traditional derby. However, the AI favors the Asian line in its over bet and finds the greatest value in a tip for over 3.0 goals. The Bet365 app offers odds of 1.77 for this, suggesting a probability of 56.5 percent. BETSiE, on the other hand, calculates an AI prediction of 66.9 percent for Gladbach against HSV, which is more than ten percent higher and thus promises a whopping value.

Gladbach – Statistics & current form

Gladbach goes into the season opener with several question marks: only one win from the last six Bundesliga opening games (three draws, two defeats); in addition, the first Bundesliga home games of the past two seasons were lost – something that has never happened to the Foals before. The narrow 3-2 win at Atlas Delmenhorst in the DFB Cup also failed to spark any new euphoria.

At least they have a solid record against promoted teams: only one defeat in their last ten encounters (three wins, six draws), and they are even unbeaten at home in eight games (five wins, three draws). At the same time, structural issues are weighing heavily: the Foals have finished in the bottom half of the table for four seasons in a row. Borussia are currently waiting for a win in seven Bundesliga games (two draws, five defeats). That is the longest run under Gerado Seoane.

Will Gladbach overcome their vulnerability from set pieces?

Two warning lights are flashing ahead of the home game against Hamburg: Gladbach conceded an average of 17.2 shots on target in 2024/25 – the highest in the league and a club record since records began. In addition, 20 goals were conceded from set pieces; only Bochum and Kiel conceded more (23 each). And now, of all times, they face the best offense in the last second division season by far (78 goals; 14 more than Elversberg and Magdeburg) and an opponent with a strong set piece record (22 goals).

However, new signing Shuto Machino offers hope: eleven league goals for Holstein Kiel, an impressive 62 percent conversion rate from big chances (only Patrik Schick was higher with 72 percent from at least 13 big chances), four goals in the last five matchdays – only Serhou Guirassy was better with six across the league. If you want to bet on the new signing scoring, you can get odds of 1.95 at Betano for Gladbach against HSV.

HSV – Statistics & current form

After seven long years, Hamburger SV is finally back in the Bundesliga and will face the last opponent of its previous Bundesliga era in its opening match: Borussia Mönchengladbach (2-1 at home). The two sides have met 100 times in the top flight, with 40 wins, 26 draws and 34 defeats. HSV have lost only once in their last seven encounters, albeit 3-1 away to the Foals in their most recent meeting.

The recent history of the opening game gives cause for optimism: the Rothosen have won five second division starts in a row, after previously managing only one win in nine opening games across all leagues (four draws, four defeats). HSV won their last Bundesliga opening game in 2017/18 against Augsburg 1-0.

Has HSV retained the punch it had in its promotion season?

Hamburg has two clear advantages. Firstly: set pieces. With 22 goals from set pieces, they were second only to Fürth (24) in the second division in 2024/25. Gladbach’s vulnerable counterpart: 20 goals conceded from set pieces. Secondly: striking power from open play. 78 goals in the season meant they had by far the best attack in the second division and set a club record in the lower flight (14 more than Elversberg and Magdeburg).

In addition, new signing Yussuf Poulsen could make his Bundesliga debut for HSV: 233 Bundesliga appearances, on the verge of his 50th league goal, and he has played more games against Gladbach than against any other team (15 appearances; one goal, four assists). Merlin Polzin’s team has the momentum it needs, which is why Gladbach’s recent away defeat in Hamburg should definitely not be ruled out…

Gladbach – HSV Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 36 – 27 – 44

A total of 107 matches have been played between the two teams so far, with Hamburger SV leading the head-to-head record with 44 wins. The Hanseatic club has lost only one of its last Bundesliga matches against Gladbach (four wins, two draws), but suffered a 1-3 defeat in its last away game in the Lower Rhine region.

Gladbach – HSV Tip

All in all, our prediction for Gladbach against HSV tends towards the Foals, who are starting the 2025/26 season with almost twice the budget of the Hanseatic club. However, in the past few seasons, the Foals have mostly fallen well short of expectations, finishing in the lower half of the table four times in a row. In the cup, too, they only narrowly avoided embarrassment at Atlas Delmenhorst with a 3-2 away win. It would therefore be risky to bet on the team from the Lower Rhine.

However, Hamburg still has to prove that it is capable of playing in the top flight. 78 goals in the promotion season were impressive. Now, however, they will face opponents who are also striving for possession much more often. This traditional duel could therefore be a heated affair, and we recommend betting on over 3.5 goals. Bet-at-home is offering odds of 2.25 for Gladbach against HSV, which we are betting four out of ten units on.