Will the Foals extend their winning streak against a formidable opponent?

Borussia Mönchengladbach enters Friday night’s floodlit match with two positive streaks. On the one hand, the team from the Lower Rhine has won three games in a row after a 15-game winless streak in the Bundesliga, making up some ground in the table. On the other hand, the Foals have remained unbeaten in two consecutive league games (one win, one draw) against a formidable opponent against whom they have averaged only 0.89 points per game in the Bundesliga. In the following analysis, we explain why it is still risky to bet on Gladbach extending this streak against RB Leipzig.

One important factor that makes an away win for the Red Bulls more likely in Gladbach vs. RB Leipzig is the impressive form with which RBL is coming to Borussia-Park. Not only have the Saxons won eight of their last ten Bundesliga games (one draw, one defeat), they have also conceded only seven goals during this period – the lowest in the league. However, BMG has rediscovered its scoring touch and has scored at least three goals in each of its last four competitive games. Against this backdrop, we don’t want to rule anything out in the three-way system, so the match combo that makes the most sense is that both teams will score and there will be over 2.5 goals.

Another small ray of hope for the team from the Lower Rhine could be the fact that RBL have not performed as well away from home as they have in front of their home crowd. The Red Bulls have suffered both of their defeats this season on the road, including a 3-1 loss to TSG Hoffenheim in their last Bundesliga away game to date. Accordingly, with Gladbach vs. RB Leipzig at odds of 1.92, you could also consider placing an Asian handicap of +0.25 on the Foals.

Gladbach vs. RB Leipzig Prediction AI

Unfortunately, this completely contradicts our analysis, but this is due more to mathematical probabilities than to the figures. With an expected goals value of 1.52 for the Foals and 1.79 for the Saxons, the AI ultimately also assumes that it will be a high-scoring match. The 3.00 implies a probability of 33.3 percent, while AI calculates a 34.7 percent chance, which is higher and therefore provides value.

Gladbach – Statistics & current form

Borussia Mönchengladbach has finally turned the corner under Eugen Polanski, who, after nine weeks as interim coach, has now been chosen as the permanent solution and has been given a new contract. After 15 consecutive Bundesliga games without a win, he not only led the Lower Rhine team to a 3-1 victory over Karlsruher SC in the cup, but also strung together three consecutive wins in the top flight of German soccer, in which his team also scored three goals each time (ten goals in total).

For the first time since October 2019, the Foals could now even win four Bundesliga games in a row, although the bookmakers do not consider this too likely. Gladbach are available at odds of 3.15 for a win against RB Leipzig. No wonder, as BMG has averaged only 0.89 points per game against RBL in the Bundesliga. In other words, one of their biggest rivals is coming to Borussia-Park on Friday evening.

Gladbach’s offensive slump is over

Nevertheless, the Foals are back on top form. In their last home game, they beat archrivals 1. FC Köln 3-1, ending their eight-game winless streak at home and instantly winning back the fans’ support. Added to this is the impressive form of Haris Tabakovic, who has scored in three Bundesliga games in a row and collected the most points in the league in November (six; four goals, two assists).

Franck Honorat, meanwhile, has provided an assist in each of the last three Bundesliga games and is one of the best players in the league in this discipline, averaging 2.4 successful crosses per league game. The fact that Tim Kleindienst was only substituted in the 90th minute of the 3-0 away win in Heidenheim after recovering from injury is also partly due to the current offensive duo’s explosion in form.

RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form

After a disappointing 2024/25 season, in which RB Leipzig failed to qualify for any European competitions, the Red Bulls have made a fantastic start to the new season under their new coach Ole Werner. With 25 points from eleven games, RBL has made the second-best Bundesliga start in the club’s young history. Eight wins from eleven games even equaled the current club record from their debut season in 2016/17.

Defensive stability in particular is a major asset. The Saxons have won eight of their last ten league games (one draw, one defeat) because they have conceded only seven goals during this period – the lowest in the league. In their recent 2-0 home win over Werner’s former club Werder Bremen, the Red Bulls kept a clean sheet for the fifth time – only Bayern and Dortmund have kept more clean sheets (six times).

Will Ouédraogo strike again for RB Leipzig at Borussia-Park?

Nevertheless, in our opinion, Gladbach vs. RB Leipzig is likely to be a high-scoring match, which we attribute to the home side’s explosive form in attack. The Saxons could contribute to this, among other things, through the newly minted national player Assan Ouédraogo, as the 19-year-old recently scored his second goal of the 2025/26 season from distance – the highest number in the league. In addition, he has already scored six points in his first eight starts. Since data collection began in the 2004/05 season, only one teenager has scored more in this time frame: Erling Haaland in 2020 (seven).

Christoph Baumgartner, meanwhile, recently recorded his third assist and has collected seven points in six Bundesliga games since the beginning of October (four goals, three assists). This puts him on a par with Haris Tabakovic and Michael Olise in the league.

Gladbach – RB Leipzig Head-to-head record

Head to head: 4 – 4 – 10

The two teams have played each other 18 times in competitive matches, with Gladbach only managing to beat RB Leipzig four times. The Foals did pick up four out of a possible six points against the Red Bulls last season. Overall, however, the team from the Lower Rhine averages only 0.89 points per Bundesliga game against the Saxons. Borussia has not scored worse against any other club.

Gladbach – RB Leipzig Tip

Although the betting odds from the best bookmakers suggest that Gladbach will not secure another home win against RB Leipzig, the team from the Lower Rhine now faces a formidable opponent in top form. However, we would not categorically rule out another three points for the Foals, who have won four competitive games in a row, scoring at least three goals in each of them. The fact that Tim Kleindienst is fit again and made his first appearance of 2025/26 in Heidenheim also gives coach Eugen Polanski more options.

Although RBL has conceded only seven goals in its last ten league games (the lowest in the league), we expect a very lively floodlit game at Borussia-Park. Against this backdrop, our prediction for Gladbach vs. RB Leipzig is that both teams will score and there will be more than three goals in total.