Relegation thriller at Borussia Park!
The relegation battle in the Bundesliga is heating up this season! Right in the thick of it are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli, the two clubs set to face off on Friday evening at Borussia Park to kick off Matchday 26. Just one point separates the two clubs.
While the Foals, in 12th place, are still in the safe zone of the standings, the visitors from Hamburg are in the relegation spot. However, a look at the teams’ current form provides more reasons to even consider a bet on an away win for the Kiezkickers in the match between Gladbach and St. Pauli.
The “Boys in Brown” have racked up an outstanding ten (!) points in their last five matches. By comparison: Only FC Bayern and RB Leipzig have collected more points over the same period. The North Germans have not left the field as losers in three consecutive matches. Should a prediction that the men from the Elbe won’t lose once again pay off in the Gladbach vs. St. Pauli clash on Matchday 26 of the Bundesliga, it would be only the second time during coach Alexander Blessin’s tenure that Pauli has gone four Bundesliga matches in a row without a loss.
It is all the more surprising, then, that according to the Gladbach vs. St. Pauli odds on the 1X2 market, the hosting Borussia are considered the clear favorites. Looking back at their last nine league matches, the team from the Lower Rhine has only managed a single victory. Furthermore, they already lost their home game in the DFB Cup against their upcoming opponent.
Consequently, it is definitely worth considering placing a bet on the underdog—whether in the form of the Double Chance X2 or, with a bit more courage to take a risk, the two-way bet on the away win.
Gladbach vs. St. Pauli AI Prediction
Artificial intelligence is fully siding with the bookmakers in this match, and strictly speaking, even more so. While the top odds for a home win at Interwetten stand at 2.05, implying a probability of just under 49 percent, the AI believes there is a 54.9 percent chance of a win for the Foals. The AI also gives the home team a clear advantage in xG values (1.51 vs. 0.81), so the Gladbach vs. St. Pauli AI prediction clearly points to a win for the Rhinelanders.
Gladbach – Statistics & Current Form
At the end of November 2025, Eugen Polanski took over as head coach of Borussia Mönchengladbach. After the former pro had done a great job with the youth and U23 teams for years, he was given the chance to prove himself in the Bundesliga. With two wins and just one loss in his first four matches in charge, the start could certainly be described as successful. About three months later, however, the tide has turned. Polanski is facing criticism, there is no sign of the team’s development, and in terms of results, Borussia is in a serious crisis. With only a one-point lead over 16th place, the fear of relegation is omnipresent around Borussia Park.
Gladbach continues to be utterly harmless
Of their last nine Bundesliga matches, the team from the Lower Rhine has won just one (1-3-5). The 25 points accumulated at this stage mark their weakest tally since the 2010/11 season, when the storied club only secured its place in the league via the relegation playoffs. Overall, the Foals have had fewer points on the board after 25 matchdays in the top flight only four times—including during the two relegation seasons of 1998/99 and 2006/07.
Above all, the far too toothless offense is causing headaches for the management and the fans. BMG has already failed to score in ten matches during the 2025/26 season. Looking back at the past nine Bundesliga matches, they never managed more than one goal. They have scored a meager six goals in total since mid-January. Given this, it’s understandable that such low odds are being offered on under goals for the Gladbach vs. St. Pauli match. I, too, expect few goals in the game and also point to the immense importance of this direct clash at the bottom of the table.
St. Pauli – Stats & Current Form
The overall mood in St. Pauli is currently much more positive and confident than in Mönchengladbach. While the Hamburg-based team was more or less written off by the media a few weeks ago, the Kiezkickers have quickly emerged as one of the teams of the moment. As mentioned in the introduction, coach Alexander Blessin’s squad has earned ten points from their last five matches, remained unbeaten in three consecutive games, and has long since internalized the qualities needed in the relegation battle.
In this regard, I actually see them ahead of their upcoming opponent, which is why, in my opinion, the value in the betting odds lies in the away win between Gladbach and St. Pauli.
St. Pauli’s form is trending upward in every respect
One of these strengths is their tenacity and aggressiveness in one-on-one duels. Last week, the “Boys in Brown” earned a well-deserved 0-0 draw at home against Frankfurt; the week before, they won 1-0 away at TSG Hoffenheim, who had previously celebrated eight consecutive home wins. Overall, Nikola Vasilj has not conceded a goal in Hamburg’s net for 208 minutes—longer than any other goalkeeper currently in the German top flight!
Finally, it should also be noted that while St. Pauli still has the league’s least potent offense (23 goals), they are nonetheless regularly able to create scoring opportunities. Added to this is the threat from set pieces, which is reflected in eleven goals. Defensively solid and relying on set pieces up front—that sounds like the perfect recipe for a rather uneventful Friday night. But: As a rule, the first goal in this matchup could effectively decide the outcome. In 18 of 21 Bundesliga matches this season where the ball crossed the goal line, the team that took a 1-0 lead went on to win.
Gladbach – St. Pauli Head-to-Head Record
This marks the third time the clubs have faced off this season. The first leg in the Bundesliga at Millerntor was a clear-cut affair for Gladbach, who celebrated their first three points of the 2025/26 season with a 4-0 win on Matchday 9.
Things didn’t go as well for the Foals in the DFB Cup. With Polanski on the sidelines, the team from the Lower Rhine was eliminated at home in the round of 16 with a 1-2 loss in early December. It was Gladbach’s second home defeat in their last three home games against FC St. Pauli.
Gladbach – St. Pauli Prediction
Admittedly, I find it hard to write about a relegation decider on Matchday 26. However, the match between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC St. Pauli definitely deserves to be called a thriller in the relegation battle. An important factor—one that should not be underestimated psychologically—is that the pressure naturally lies with the hosts. Everyone expects a home win, though it will be hard to come by. Consequently, there could be early signs of frustration from the home side, which might tip the scales in favor of the Kiezkickers. Added to this is the absence of BMG captain Rocco Reitz, who was sent off last week in the 1-4 loss in Munich.
However, it is not just mental factors but also facts that provide arguments in favor of St. Pauli. For example, St. Pauli has earned ten points from their last five matches, compared to Gladbach’s single win in their past nine games. Defensively, Blessin’s side has been very solid recently, while the team from the Lower Rhine has struggled to score goals for weeks. All things considered, I therefore recommend betting on the Double Chance X2 between Gladbach and St. Pauli.
