When will TSG defend set pieces more consistently?

Set pieces are a recurring theme for TSG, which is also reflected in our Hoffenheim vs. Cologne tip. The damage caused by the opponent’s set pieces could hardly be greater: the Kraichgauers have conceded seven goals from set pieces in five Bundesliga matchdays.

This is, of course, the highest number in the German top flight, but it is by no means an area that only affects the home side in our Hoffenheim vs. Cologne prediction. The visitors are a newly promoted team that has also conceded five goals from set pieces.

If you are registered with Merkur Bets, you will find Hoffenheim vs. Cologne betting odds there that fairly accurately reflect the current market. Although 1899 has lost both of its home games this season (1-3 vs. Frankfurt, 1-4 vs. Bayern), the home side is considered more likely to win than the visitors.

Two attackers in particular are carrying special emotions, having switched sides during this summer’s transfer window. Tim Lemperle was the Geißböcke’s top scorer last season (10 goals, 6 assists), but now plays for TSG. Opposite him, Marius Bülter has already delighted the fans since his move to the promoted side, collecting four points in four Bundesliga matches (2 goals, 2 assists).

The hosts’ defense has yet to keep a clean sheet this Bundesliga season. Cologne has only kept a clean sheet on the first matchday after promotion (1-0 away win vs. Mainz). We are placing our Hoffenheim vs. Cologne bet with odds of 2.30 from the Interwetten app for “Over 3.5 goals” in the game.

Hoffenheim vs. Cologne Prediction AI

The calculations of the BETSiE artificial intelligence have produced a clear result that does not stand in the way of our Hoffenheim vs. Cologne prediction. The AI’s analysis models have produced a probability of victory of just under 58 percent, which is several percentage points higher than the bookmakers’ predictions.

Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form

Packed with exciting players, TSG’s offensive department is one of the most interesting parts of the Bundesliga team. Last year’s top scorer in the 2nd Bundesliga, Fisnik Asllani, seems to have made the transition to the highest German league with ease.

The 23-year-old has scored four goals in his first five Bundesliga appearances and has also found the net in the DFB Cup. His partnership with former Cologne player Tim Lemperle, who also has two goals to his name this season, has been particularly impressive so far.

Together with their teammates, the players from Kraichgau are averaging 0.13 expected goals per shot. Only Dortmund (0.16), Freiburg (0.15), and Bayern (0.14) have a better record in this category so far. Christian Ilzer’s team has not yet left the field without scoring a goal in this Bundesliga season.

Everyone has to do their job

It’s not just the attacking line that makes the games so entertaining. The lack of organization in the back line, especially when defending against set pieces, has helped to raise the number of goals conceded to 4.40 per TSG Bundesliga game.

Hoffenheim has not only conceded the most set-piece goals of any Bundesliga team, but also the most expected goals from set pieces (4.06). The percentage of shots conceded from corners, free kicks, etc. is 48.33 percent, which is higher than any other competitor in the German top flight.

Overall, only four teams have conceded more goals than the Kraichgauers (Bremen, Frankfurt, Augsburg, and Gladbach). Our Hoffenheim vs. Cologne prediction suggests more goals for TSG, even if they could pick up points unlike in their first two home games.

Cologne – Statistics & current form

The Goats’ furious start to the season is behind them. After victories against Mainz (1-0) and Freiburg (4-1), the last-minute comeback against Wolfsburg (3-3) was at least a partial success. However, Lukas Kwasniok then had to deal with two defeats in a row.

First, the promoted team suffered a 1-3 defeat in Leipzig and then lost to VfB Stuttgart (1-2). The defense has been increasingly undermined in recent matches and has conceded eight goals in three Bundesliga games – a critical area.

In line with TSG (9.20 xGA), Cologne’s defense (9.08 xGA) is considered below average in the league comparison of expected goals conceded. Goalkeeper Marvin Schwäbe has not yet been able to provide the desired support. The keeper has conceded 0.2 more goals than expected.

Competitive

On the other hand, the visitors’ offense has been a positive surprise so far. Lukas Kwasniok’s team attacks the opponent’s box with high efficiency and has the highest cross rate to their own teammates in the league. Only Bayern and Frankfurt have scored more goals from open play (10 each).

The two teams mentioned above were Hoffenheim’s opponents in their previous home games and have conceded a combined total of seven goals to Ilzer’s team. Kwasniok’s players are naturally hoping for a similar haul. After all, Hoffenheim is the team that has committed the most fouls so far (71) and is known to be weak at defending set pieces.

In addition, the cathedral city team fights hard on the field. Only Bayern (611.9) and Augsburg (605.8) covered more kilometers as a team than the promoted team (605.2) in the first five Bundesliga match days.

Hoffenheim – Cologne Head-to-head record / H2H record

TSG have scored at least one goal in 15 of their 16 Bundesliga matches against 1. FC Köln. In the last four encounters between Hoffenheim and the Billy Goats, both teams have scored at least one goal. In addition, in two of the three previous Bundesliga matches, the visiting team scored three goals and came away with the win.

Bundesliga matches involving the Kraichgauers (4.40 goals per game) and the Cathedral City team (3.20 goals per game) have been particularly exciting this season and always feature plenty of goal-scoring opportunities. This trend is set to continue at the PreZero Arena on matchday six.

Hoffenheim – Cologne Tip

Hoffenheim is courageous in its pressing, often and gladly appearing with several players in the opponent’s penalty area and allowing only 10.0 passes per defensive action in the attacking third so far. Only FSV Mainz 05 (9.7 PPDA) has a lower value in the early stages of this Bundesliga season.

The home side has already generated eight shots (3rd) and scored one goal from their compact pressing. Around 22.22 percent of high ball wins have resulted in a shot – the fourth-highest figure in the German top flight. This element helps the already productive TSG attack to create even more shots.

However, the visitors could circumvent this tactic by feeding Ragnar Ache at the front with long balls. In addition, the Billy Goats have already proven that they also have a few solutions for creating scoring chances from open play.

Both teams will have chances against each other’s vulnerable defenses. The conditions are right for a high-scoring match. Now it’s up to the players to convert their chances.