Is Hoffenheim the fittest team in the Bundesliga?

The Hanseatic team would prefer to avoid long trips. In the Hoffenheim vs. HSV tip, the Rothosen are playing away for the seventh time this season. Merlin Polzin and his team are still waiting for their first three points away from the Volksparkstadion.

Apart from the promoted team, every Bundesliga team has already played away from home and returned with three points. According to our Hoffenheim vs. HSV prediction, the North Germans will have to continue waiting for their first away win of the season.

Thanks to their home strength, Hamburg have lost only two of seven games at the Volksparkstadion so far, keeping Polzin’s protégés well clear of the relegation zone. The promoted team currently has a four-point cushion above the relegation play-off spot.

The visitors are certainly the underdogs in the Hoffenheim vs. HSV betting odds. At the PreZero Arena, the Rothosen will face the fifth-placed team. TSG coach Christian Ilzer has completely transferred his DNA to the team during the first full season of preparation, and they are implementing his ideas excellently.

The Kraichgauers have won more than 50 percent of their games this season (7/13). The hosts are now even knocking on the door of the Champions League places. Leverkusen is only ahead of 1899 Hoffenheim thanks to its superior goal difference. However, that could change after the coming weekend.

Hoffenheim vs. HSV AI prediction

According to our artificial intelligence calculations, there are valuable alternatives to our actual tip in the form of an interesting Hoffenheim vs. HSV AI prediction. “Under 3.5 goals” would fit our expectations for this matchup.

Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form

Some experts had already expressed their anticipation for the team from Kraichgau during the preseason. The offense shone during the test matches. A fantastic chemistry developed, especially between new signings Tim Lemperle and loan returnee Fisnik Asllani.

Together, the two attackers have already scored nine goals this season and transferred their potential to the field. However, in our Hoffenheim – HSV prediction, the strike duo is not necessarily the focus, even though they do important work in pressing.

No team in the league allows fewer passes per defensive action in the attacking third than Hoffenheim (9.7 PPDA). TSG’s style of play puts massive pressure on opposing teams when they are building up play. No other Bundesliga team comes close to Ilzer’s side’s 179 pressing sequences.

Full-throttle soccer

The hosts press intensively and successfully. Only three other Bundesliga teams have won more high balls than TSG (109). This requires an enormous willingness to run, which can only be sustained throughout the entire game with the help of outstanding physical fitness.

The Kraichgauers generally succeed in this, as can be seen from the bare figures. Of all 18 teams in the top German league, Hoffenheim has covered the most kilometers (1604.1), completed the most sprints (2367), and by far the most intense runs (9834).

These are great conditions for our Hoffenheim – HSV tip. Added to this is the contingency plan that Ilzer’s players can fall back on: fouls. In the German top flight, the fifth-placed team has committed the most fouls (175). HSV is already in third place (162).

HSV – Statistics & current form

The Hanseatic team’s struggles away from home were evident in their last away game. On the 11th matchday of the Bundesliga, the Rothosen lost 0-1 to the crisis-stricken club from Augsburg. It was already the fourth away game of the season that the North Germans had ended without scoring a goal.

Only Heidenheim (-11) has a weaker goal difference away from home than the promoted team (-10). Compared to the North Germans (2), however, FCH has scored twice as many goals (4) away from their own arena. If we look at the expected goals in away games, the Bundesliga returnees rank 16th (6.0 away xG).

There is little to suggest a turnaround, especially against the fifth-placed team, who have won five of their seven previous Bundesliga home games. In addition, HSV has already failed to score in six Bundesliga away games against TSG.

Poor conversion rate

Hamburg is putting in a tremendous amount of effort in relation to its output. The Rothosen have already taken 172 shots this Bundesliga season (6th). Only four more shots have been taken by the home team’s players in the 13 rounds played so far (176).

A sufficient number of these shots have also flown towards the opponent’s goal (61). Here, too, only five teams have directed the ball towards the opponent’s goal more often. However, the low quality of HSV’s chances is immediately apparent.

On average, the HSV pros only had 0.10 expected goals per shot. By comparison, TSG’s average so far is 0.12 xG/shot. Weaker finishing positions usually lead to a low shot conversion rate. This is definitely the case for the North Germans (8.14 percent).

Hoffenheim – HSV Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Ahead of their away game at the PreZero Arena, the Hanseatic club has won two Bundesliga games in a row for the first time this season. However, both previous encounters took place at their home stadium, the Volksparkstadion, where HSV have won most of their points so far.

In the past, Hoffenheim have always looked forward to upcoming matches against the Rothosen with great excitement. The Kraichgauers have a higher home win rate against no other Bundesliga team in the German top flight (60 percent). In addition, the hosts have already finished six Bundesliga home games against HSV without conceding a goal. They have not achieved this against any other Bundesliga team.

Hoffenheim – HSV Tip

The TSG players race across the field quickly and purposefully in their pairings. Ilzer’s team carries the ball at an average speed of 2.0 m/s across the turf when in possession – the second-highest value among all Bundesliga teams. This speed is also evident in their work against the ball.

Hoffenheim focuses on high pressing in defense, aiming to win the ball early and create easy scoring opportunities. In contrast to HSV, the Kraichgau attackers know how to take advantage of their shooting opportunities, which should be taken into account when selecting the Hoffenheim vs. HSV odds.

14.20 percent of their shots have found the net, making TSG one of the five most effective teams in the Bundesliga. The expected goal difference (+1.7 xGD) shows that with this style of play, provided it continues to be executed so uncompromisingly in the future, long-term success is realistic.

In the short term, a win and three points against the promoted team from northern Germany should also be possible, especially if Polzin’s team once again demonstrates its lack of finishing strength away from home.