Will Jean-Luc Dompé be fit in time?
If the Bundesliga returnees from northern Germany want to stay in the league, home games like the one in our HSV vs. Frankfurt prediction are of enormous importance. So far, the Rothosen have collected 13 of their 15 points on the pitch at the Volksparkstadion.
If you look at the home table, you will see the Hanseatic team in sixth place ahead of our HSV vs. Frankfurt prediction. Merlin Polzin and his team have won four of seven home games, shared the points in another match, and lost only to St. Pauli (0-2) and VfL Wolfsburg (0-1).
The fourteenth-placed team will play their eighth home game of the current Bundesliga season against a Champions League participant. The home side do not necessarily have to fear their Hessian opponents in the current phase. Last weekend, the Eagles only narrowly beat Augsburg (1-0), ending a run of four competitive games without a win (1D, 3L).
Dino Toppmöller is not at all satisfied with his team’s defense this season. Only Heidenheim (30) has conceded more goals than SGE (29) so far.
Eintracht suffered a heavy defeat in their last away game at Bundesliga level, losing 6-0 in Leipzig. The Rothosen’s offense is unlikely to be able to catapult itself into such heights, but it gives the Bundesliga dinosaur’s fans hope.
HSV vs. Frankfurt Prediction AI
Among all Bundesliga teams, there are currently only two teams (Bayern and Dortmund) that have scored more goals than Eintracht Frankfurt (29). On the other hand, only Heidenheim (30) has conceded more goals than SGE (29). In its HSV vs. Frankfurt AI prediction, our artificial intelligence has its eye on the match combination “Both teams to score & Over 2.5 goals.”
HSV – Statistics & current form
In order to create the best possible conditions for their team and enable them to secure their first Bundesliga away win since returning to the German top flight, 15,000 enthusiastic HSV fans traveled to Sinsheim on the last matchday.
The home game atmosphere at TSG did not help. The team returned to the north disappointed after a 1-4 defeat. There, the fans can hope for a win again. So far, the Rothosen have celebrated every Bundesliga success of the season at the Volksparkstadion (4W, 1D, 2L).
Following their second home defeat of the season (0-1 vs. Wolfsburg), Polzin’s team put in a convincing performance at home, scoring against BVB (1-1), securing a last-minute victory against Stuttgart (2-1), and treating their loyal fans to a 3-2 derby win in an intense duel against Werder. Nevertheless, the HSV vs. Frankfurt odds see the two teams as evenly matched.
Confidence in home strength
The Hanseatic team regularly raise their level in the second half and put pressure on the opponent’s goal. Eleven of the 15 goals scored this season – around 73 percent – were scored by the Bundesliga returnees after the half-time break. “HSV wins one half” is particularly aimed at the second half.
At the Volksparkstadion, many things work well that hardly work away from home. The promoted team scored 80 percent of its goals this season in home games (12/15). This is not a statistical outlier, but a consistent trend. For our HSV – Frankfurt tip, we looked at the distribution of expected goals on Understat. At home (11.34 xG), the North Germans had significantly more expected goals than away (7.40 xG).
The use of Jean-Luc Dompé would be helpful for our HSV vs. Frankfurt prediction. The winger has been struggling with Achilles tendon irritation for months and is on the verge of missing almost every game. As things stand, however, he has a good chance of at least coming off the bench – maybe even more.
Frankfurt – Statistics & current form
Things could be much better for SGE. They could be, if it weren’t for the many lapses in the back line. Technical errors, miscommunication, disorientation, and a lack of sharpness in tackles – there are various reasons why the Eagles have conceded the second-most goals (29).
Together with Freiburg, the Hessians have conceded the most goals in the league as a result of their own mistakes (7). These occur frequently away from home. Head coach Dino Toppmöller has already seen 20 goals conceded on the road – 69 percent of the total goals conceded in the current Bundesliga season.
Per game, the Eagles have had to retrieve the ball from their own net 2.07 times and drag themselves back to the center circle for their own kickoff. Often, the visitors have had to make their way to the kickoff point even more frequently. The Hessians have ended six of their 14 Bundesliga games with three or more goals conceded.
Frankfurt stands for spectacle
Bayern are dominating this season, already nine points clear at the top and scoring against almost every team (51 goals in 14 games). No Bundesliga team has conceded fewer goals than Munich this season. Nowhere else have games produced more goals (62).
The SGE has scored 22 fewer goals (29) than the German record champions, but has also conceded 18 more goals. Taken together, the Champions League participant’s matches have produced 58 goals – on average, spectators have seen 4.14 goals per SGE game.
As with HSV, it is worth looking at the distribution of expected values between home and away games for SGE – in terms of goals conceded, of course. Away from home, SGE conceded 12.72 xGA, while at home they conceded only 7.96 xGA.
HSV – Frankfurt Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
None of the twelve previous Bundesliga matches between these two teams ended in victory for the Rothosen. Frankfurt won three of the last four encounters and even regularly took three points from the Volksparkstadion.
It should be noted, however, that the last competitive match between the two sides was in 2018. The current form of both teams means that the North Germans have every right to dream of three points at home.
HSV – Frankfurt Tip
If the Hanseatic team are aiming for another home win, they will have to get Ritsu Doan under control. The Japanese player is the hoped-for reinforcement for SGE and has been directly involved in most of Hessen’s goals in the German top flight (4 goals, 4 assists).
His scoring points correlate strongly with success – Frankfurt has won every Bundesliga game in which Doan has been directly involved in a goal. Three of his four goals even enabled the Eagles to take the lead (1-0 in each case) – only Serhou Guirassy has scored more often to give his team a 1-0 lead (4).
However, Merlin Polzin and his team will be keen to force the typical mistakes in the SGE defense. Frankfurt has already conceded almost as many away goals (20) as it did in the entire previous season (24 in 17 away games).
On average, more than five goals per game have been scored in Hessen’s seven previous Bundesliga away games (37 in total) – so let’s settle down on the couch and look forward to a goal-filled afternoon at the Volksparkstadion.
