The only real city derby!
For the first time since the 2010/11 season, the Hamburg city derby is back in the Bundesliga. Both sets of fans are eagerly anticipating Friday evening’s highlight match. Perhaps even more so among the Rothosen supporters. After all, it is also their first home game after a seven-year absence from the top flight. Because emotions are likely to play a particularly important role, it is not easy to predict the outcome of the match between HSV and St. Pauli.
In any case, there is no clear favorite in the run-up to the match. While Hamburger SV is primarily counting on its home advantage, the brown and whites are primarily throwing the good impressions from their first league match into the balance. Despite trailing 1-3, Blessin’s team earned a morale-boosting point at home against Borussia Dortmund, giving them a lot of confidence. For the HSV vs. St. Pauli derby, a prediction in favor of the visiting team is therefore not so far-fetched.
Nevertheless, the best sports betting apps are offering lower odds on the promoted team for the HSV vs. St. Pauli match. The maximum odds for a home win are currently 2.40 and are offered by Interwetten. Until August 31, you can still get a €11 free bet at Interwetten with the code “Restart25.” The provider with a German betting license also entices with attractive odds for over or under goals. In my opinion, however, the odds point to a hard-fought, tough game without many goals.
HSV vs. St. Pauli AI prediction
This is at least confirmed by the xG values of 1.37 to 1.19, which indicate a very balanced duel. However, if you compare the AI-simulated probability of victory of 42.5% with the bookmakers’ odds, the value of the HSV vs. St. Pauli AI prediction for a home win is clear.
HSV – Statistics & current form
For the fifth time in the club’s history, HSV started a Bundesliga season with a goalless draw last weekend. Away at Borussia Mönchengladbach, the 0-0 draw was nevertheless seen as a small but well-deserved success. On Friday evening, however, the fans would certainly not be completely satisfied with a point against their city rivals. Instead, the clear goal is to show who is currently number one in the Hanseatic city.
HSV soccer has changed.
It will be exciting to see whether coach Merlin Polzin’s team will take a similar approach at home as they did away. From a deep-lying block, the Rothosen’s top priority was to remain stable and then achieve success through counterattacks. In the home game against the Kiezkickers, however, there should be more pressing sequences of their own. To put this into context: on the first matchday, no other club pressed less often than Hamburg.
Basically, however, the opening game provided enough arguments to consider the odds for under goals between HSV and St. Pauli. This is not least due to the lack of threat in attack. Even in the preseason, the newly promoted team struggled to create and convert chances. It is quite possible that Yussuf Poulsen will slip into the starting lineup and act as the target player. Nevertheless, I tend to think that there will be no more than two goals in the city derby. In the Interwetten app, you can get odds of 1.90 for this.
St. Pauli – Statistics & current form
Last season, FC St. Pauli undoubtedly exceeded expectations as a promoted team. Thanks to a very consistent defense, the Kiezkickers not only stayed in the league, but also won the hearts of soccer fans throughout Germany. At Millerntor, fighting spirit, passion, commitment, and meticulousness are still very important!
Despite some important departures in the summer, those in charge around coach Alexander Blessin are confident that they have once again put together a squad that can leave at least three other clubs behind.
St. Pauli has tasted blood
However, the team’s morale was already evident on the first match day. Although the “Boys in Brown” were trailing 1-3 at home against Borussia Dortmund at times, the Hamburg team did not give up, forced a sending-off for BVB, converted the resulting penalty and even managed a celebrated 3-3 draw in injury time. If the match had gone on for another ten minutes, Blessin’s team would probably have left the field as winners.
With confidence behind them and the statistic in mind that both Bundesliga matches against the promoted team from Kiel were won in the previous season, they should also be able to get something out of the game at the neighboring Volkspark. Ahead of the match between HSV and St. Pauli, I would even venture to predict that the Kiezkickers’ performance will decide who wins the Hamburg city championship.
HSV – St. Pauli Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Of the current Bundesliga teams, Hamburger SV has only won 50% of all games against St. Pauli. In 16 city derbies in Germany’s top division, there have been eight wins for the Rothosen and only two for the Kiezkickers. Curiously, the very first encounter in 1977 and the last Bundesliga duel in 2011 went to FC St. Pauli, who, incidentally, had the upper hand more often than HSV in twelve second division matches. In their last joint second division season, Hamburg won 1-0 at home in the Volkspark. It was already their third home win in a row. Will the next one follow on Friday evening? According to the HSV vs. St. Pauli betting odds, it’s a conceivable scenario.
HSV – St. Pauli Tip
Both teams had five new signings in their starting lineups on the first matchday. However, it was the proven players who decided the game. At FC St. Pauli, keeper Vasilj was outstanding, and at HSV, Heuer-Fernandes underlined his strong form, which has made him the number one in the duel against Bayern’s new signing Peretz. Strong goalkeepers are just one factor that leads me to believe this will be a balanced, rather tough and consequently low-scoring city derby.
There is also a lot at stake. After all, this is the first Hamburg derby in the Bundesliga in 15 years. In addition, both teams are currently struggling to create 11 vs. 11 scoring chances. Many duels will further interrupt the flow of the game. I therefore tend to go for the HSV vs. St. Pauli tip on under 2.5.
