Will the Rothosen slide deeper into crisis?

VfB Stuttgart has undergone an incredible development in recent years, which is closely linked to HSV. When Sebastian Hoeneß took over the Swabians in the 2022/23 season in their battle against relegation, he initially led them “only” to the relegation play-offs, where the Baden-Württemberg team defeated none other than the North Germans in the first and second legs. A year later, VfB finished as runners-up. This summer, they won the DFB Cup. Even now, our prediction for HSV vs. VfB Stuttgart is an away win for the in-form White and Reds.

While VfB, after a slight slow start, is now back in top form and, following a spectacular 3-3 draw in Dortmund in the Europa League during the week, rolled over Go Ahead Eagles 4-0 away in Deventer, Hamburger SV, after a solid start, has recently picked up only one point out of a possible 15. Accordingly, we find a lot of value in HSV vs. VfB Stuttgart in our prediction that the in-form Swabians will take all three points at the Volksparkstadion.

The Rothosen do have a fundamentally tough home defense and have conceded only five goals in their five Bundesliga home games so far. However, Borussia Dortmund are also strong defensively – and last Saturday, BVB conceded three goals to the Swabian offense, with Deniz Undav finally shaking off his slump with a hat trick, while Jamie Leweling also broke his duck with a brace in the Europa League.

HSV vs. VfB Stuttgart AI prediction

We don’t always manage to agree with the AI. However, that is the case in this Sunday’s game. After all, the AI prediction for HSV vs. VfB Stuttgart also points to an away win, which is rated at 2.20 in the Bet365 app, suggesting a 45.5 percent probability of occurrence. AI, on the other hand, calculates a 46.8 percent chance of victory for the Swabians. This also creates a positive expected value from a purely mathematical point of view.

HSV – Statistics & current form

Hamburger SV goes into the match with a poor record: four consecutive competitive defeats against VfB – the longest such streak since the Bundesliga was founded. The last meeting dates back to the 2023 relegation mentioned at the beginning, when Stuttgart won both games (3-0 H, 3-1 A). Two years later, the Rothosen managed to return to the top flight of German soccer as runners-up in the 2. Bundesliga without having to go through relegation. After a solid start, however, the six-time German champions have been brought back down to earth.

The team led by promotion coach Merlin Polzin has now gone five Bundesliga games without a win (one draw, four defeats). Not only have they conceded at least one goal in each of these five games, they have also scored just three goals themselves. During this period, only city rivals FC St. Pauli have scored fewer points and fewer goals in the league.

HSV lacks offensive punch

Hamburger SV has failed to score in six Bundesliga games this season, which is why the odds are against a home win for HSV against VfB Stuttgart. On top of that, they have the worst conversion rate in the Bundesliga at just six percent and only 17 percent for big chances. Overall, the Rothosen are five goals below their expected goals value (nine goals at 14.0 xG) – worse than any other Bundesliga team.

Individually, Tottenham loanee Luka Vuskovic stands out defensively. The 18-year-old wins 69 percent of his tackles, putting him in third place in the league behind Jeff Chabot and Danilho Doekhi, and he is also the best aerial tackler this season with an outstanding rate of 83 percent. Nevertheless, the rising star will have a tough time against the powerful VfB defense.

VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form

In sporting terms, VfB Stuttgart are now back on solid footing after a somewhat shaky start to the season. With 22 points after eleven Bundesliga games, they have only had more points at this stage in the last 20 seasons in the 2023/24 season, when they finished runners-up. It is also one point more than they had in the entire second half of last season.

The Swabians’ consistency in European weeks is remarkable. All four Sunday games to date, or rather all four Bundesliga games that followed directly after Europa League appearances, have been won. Curiously, each by a one-goal margin (2-1 in Cologne, 1-0 against Heidenheim, 2-1 against Mainz, 3-2 against Augsburg). Accordingly, the tip for HSV against VfB Stuttgart is that the spectacular 4-0 win in Deventer will be followed by another Bundesliga victory.

Several knots have been broken at VfB Stuttgart

But if anything was left behind, it was mostly away from home. While Hoeneß’s team was absolutely flawless at home (15 points from five games), it was much more vulnerable away. VfB conceded all three Bundesliga defeats and twelve of the 15 goals away from home. In the last two away games, they conceded three goals each. At the same time, Stuttgart has already collected ten points after falling behind – the best record in the league alongside Hoffenheim.

The White and Reds have also scored in every single Bundesliga game. Only Bayern and Dortmund have managed that. Jeff Chabot leads the league in tackles won (71 percent). And up front, Deniz Undav is on fire, scoring five goals in the last two games. All six of his goals this season have come in the last four matchdays, meaning the goal-getter has scored three times as often as the entire HSV team in the same period (two goals)…

HSV – VfB Stuttgart Head-to-head record

Head to head: 46 – 24 – 49

A total of 119 matches have taken place between the two teams, with the Swabians, who defeated Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga relegation play-offs in the summer of 2023 and thus managed to stay in the league under Sebastian Hoeneß, recently taking the lead. This is also because VfB Stuttgart won the last four encounters, meaning that the reigning cup winners lead the head-to-head comparison with 49 wins to the Rothosen’s 46.

HSV – VfB Stuttgart Tip

From their current form to the most recent head-to-head record, there is very little to suggest that HSV’s turnaround will come against VfB Stuttgart, having not won in five Bundesliga games (one draw, four defeats) and most recently suffering a 1-0 defeat at crisis-stricken FC Augsburg.

After a solid start to the season with eight points from their first six league games, the newly promoted team has gradually run into trouble. Even the defense, led by Tottenham loanee Luka Vuskovic, has not kept a clean sheet since the 4-0 home win over Mainz 05.

There is therefore plenty of value in betting on an away win for the Swabians, who have also suffered a few setbacks but are in impressive form going into the match at the Volksparkstadion. On Thursday evening, Hoeneß’s team recorded a 4-0 away win at Go Ahead Eagles in the Europa League group stage.