Will HSV mercilessly exploit VfL’s crisis?

With eight points after seven matchdays, Hamburger SV has made a rock-solid start to the new Bundesliga season. Even more impressive than the points tally, which currently puts them in eleventh place, is their extremely positive approach. In last week’s away game against Champions League hopefuls RB Leipzig, Polzin’s team deserved something from the game thanks to a good performance. They will now be looking to make up for that at home on matchday 8 of the Bundesliga. Ahead of HSV’s home game against Wolfsburg, the hosts are therefore the clear favorites, especially as the visitors from Lower Saxony are currently going through a difficult phase.

The Green-Whites have suffered four defeats in a row and were particularly disastrous in their home game against VfB Stuttgart. There was talk of a lifeless performance following the 0-3 defeat. Having won only their first game of the season so far, the former German champions are stuck in the bottom third of the table and therefore have their backs to the wall at the Volkspark. If their poor conversion rate of 22% is not improved quickly, the prediction between HSV and Wolfsburg will inevitably lean towards the home side!

HSV vs. Wolfsburg Prediction AI

Meanwhile, artificial intelligence expects an almost completely balanced game. This is underlined by the estimated xG values of 1.58 to 1.50. Considering the 37.5% probability of a win for the visitors from the car city, according to AI and from a value perspective, it would even be better to bet on the Wolves. However, the HSV vs. Wolfsburg AI prediction for over 3 goals in the Asian handicap, which is offered at odds of 1.96 in the Bet365 app, is just as attractive and would have to be exceeded based on the total xG value of 3.08.

HSV – Statistics & current form

At the beginning of the week, HSV coach Merlin Polzin warned against underestimating the upcoming opponent. The promotion coach pointed out that VfL Wolfsburg had twice the squad value, that the VfL players were of top quality and, incidentally, had played more than three times as many matches at national or international level as his professionals.

How is Hamburger SV coping with being the favorites?

The fact that HSV is still considered slight favorites against Wolfsburg according to the betting odds can be explained by their better form, more effective structure, and the fact that the men from the Elbe are playing at home. Before their narrow 1-2 defeat in Leipzig last weekend, the Rothosen had recorded seven points from three games. With the exception of the 2-0 defeat against St. Pauli on the second matchday, Polzin’s team has not had a bad game yet. At home, they recently defeated Heidenheim (2-1) and ECL participant Mainz 05 (4-0).

If the North Germans can continue their strong performances and once again challenge their opponents with their intense, transition-oriented style of play, I am not averse to predicting a home win between HSV and Wolfsburg. However, as a potential draw cannot be reliably ruled out, I am more inclined to go for the 1.63 odds for DNB 1. The same goes for the 3.40 odds that Jean-Luc Dompé will score in his second consecutive Bundesliga home game. The left winger has long since established himself as a regular player and is therefore a potential goalscorer for me on Saturday afternoon.

Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form

At VfL Wolfsburg, coach Paul Simonis is under heavy criticism, at least after the sobering 0-3 home defeat against VfB Stuttgart. Some experts even believe that there could be a change on the sidelines if the Dutchman loses with his team again on Saturday. Yet everything started so promisingly on the first matchday. The Green-Whites won 3-1 in Heidenheim, played refreshing soccer and had already scored twelve goals in two competitive games, including the DFB Cup.

Simonis and VfL cling to the principle of hope

Since then, however, things have gone downhill. While the two subsequent draws against Mainz 05 (1-1) and 1. FC Köln (3-3) were accepted relatively without complaint, the form curve has been pointing straight down since the 0-1 defeat in Dortmund. The team has now suffered four defeats in a row. During this losing streak, the Lower Saxony side has managed to score just one goal. Amoura and his teammates have failed to score on three occasions. Five points after seven matchdays, combined with 16th place in the table, is the third-worst start to a Bundesliga season in VfL’s history.

There are no compelling arguments that Paul Simonis, who moved to the VW city from Dutch cup winners Go Ahead Eagles in the summer, will bring about a complete turnaround in one week of training. Although VfL actually has a sufficient level of quality, the problems seem to lie much deeper.

Confidence has also plummeted to a minimum in light of the string of defeats and the sometimes disastrous conversion of chances, so I would ultimately advise against betting on a positive result for the visitors in any way ahead of the HSV vs. Wolfsburg match.

HSV – Wolfsburg Head-to-head record

VfL Wolfsburg has now gone five league games without a win (0-4-1) against promoted teams. This is currently the longest streak in the league! The record against Hamburger SV is more impressive from the Wolves’ point of view, especially as it is positive with seven wins, eight draws, and six defeats.

However, the last direct encounters are already quite a while in the past. In 2021, the two teams met in the DFB Cup – 4-1 for VfL Wolfsburg. At league level, you have to look back to the 2018/19 Bundesliga season to find any encounters. The H2H therefore has no relevance or even greater influence on Saturday’s HSV vs. Wolfsburg odds!

HSV – Wolfsburg Tip

The fact that HSV has three points more than VfL Wolfsburg after seven match days certainly comes as a surprise to many. However, it is the logical consequence of a solid season so far for Hamburg and primarily disappointing performances by the Wolves.

At home, HSV has even won its last two Bundesliga games, scoring six goals in the process. The performance in Leipzig was also encouraging and shows that the Rothosen have developed positively under Merlin Polzin.

The same cannot be said of VfL Wolfsburg. At the latest since the home game against Stuttgart, the alarm bells should be ringing for those responsible. Four defeats in a row, only one goal scored during this period, and too many players failing to live up to expectations are all indications that the pendulum is swinging in favor of the home side. In the two-way market, I am therefore going for the HSV vs. Wolfsburg tip on DNB 1 at odds of 1.63 at Bet365.