Will the Knifey Lions maintain their lead in Florida?

Since being knocked out of the 2025 Club World Cup, Inter Miami has won four of five games in the Major League Soccer Eastern Conference. The only exception was a 3-0 defeat, which came against today’s visitors from Ohio. The Knifey Lions are currently top of the table and are now determined to defend their lead in the Sunshine State. According to the bookmakers, however, the odds are not in Inter Miami’s favor for an away win against Cincinnati.

This is also due to the current form of whirlwind Lionel Messi, who just scored two goals against the New York Red Bulls and set up two more in a 5-1 win. However, La Pulga could miss this home game against FC Cincy due to suspension, which could well shift the odds in Inter Miami’s favor against Cincinnati.

The 2022 World Cup winner skipped the All-Star Game, in which a selection of MLS players take on a selection of players from the Mexican league chosen by fans and the media. This is not unusual, but is normally punished with a one-match ban. However, a meeting between the league and the club must take place first, which had not yet taken place at the time of going to press. It is therefore quite possible that an exception will be made for Messi.

Inter Miami – Statistics & current form

Last year, Inter Miami not only won the Eastern Conference title, but also finished top of the Major League Soccer table. This earned the team, which then surprisingly failed in the very first round of the playoffs, not only the MLS Supporters’ Shield but also the right to participate in the 2025 Club World Cup, where their journey ended in the round of 16 against eventual finalists Paris Saint-Germain.

This year, they could finish in first place again. Thanks to the Club World Cup, the Herons have played three games fewer than the other teams. If they pick up the full nine points, coach Javier Mascherano’s side would be in first place. They are currently seven points behind leaders Cincinnati. However, if Inter Miami fail to win at home against Cincinnati, it would be another setback for the club, which lost 3-0 away to the Orange and Blue just ten days ago.

Inter Miami has the strongest offense in MLS

Incidentally, that 0-3 defeat to FC Cincy was also the only MLS game since Inter Miami’s exit from the Club World Cup that Messi has not won and in which he has not been involved in a goal. In the other four games, La Pulga scored two goals in each. In the recent 5-1 win in New York, the 38-year-old also set up two more goals. He would be sorely missed if the league and club failed to reach an agreement and he was indeed banned from the All-Star Game.

Overall, Mascherano’s team, which has scored an impressive 49 goals in 21 games in the Eastern Conference, has the best offense of all 30 teams in Major League Soccer. In addition to Messi, Luis Suárez, Telasco Segovia, and Tadeo Allende are also causing a stir, with all three of them scoring 19 goals between them. All that’s missing is a little more defensive stability, which Rodrigo De Paul could soon provide. According to reports, Messi’s compatriot and coach Javier Mascherano is on his way and will arrive in Florida this summer.

Cincinnati – Statistics & current form

FC Cincinnati has been part of Major League Soccer since 2019 and won the Eastern Conference in 2023. They then reached the Conference final in the playoffs, but lost 2-3 in extra time to Columbus Crew, who went on to win the MLS Cup. Last season, however, the Eastern Conference’s third-placed team, like today’s hosts Inter Miami, failed to make it past the first round of the playoffs.

Currently, however, coach Pat Noonan’s team is making great strides toward its next attempt. After 24 of 30 games in the regular season, the Knifey Lions are sitting in first place in the division, thanks to their recent run: they have won six of their last seven MLS games (with one defeat), including a 3-0 home win against the Herons.

Cincinnati on the sunny side despite mediocre performance data

The Orange and Blue have also won their last four MLS away games, so it’s quite surprising that the current Eastern Conference leaders are considered such clear underdogs at Chase Stadium. At ODDSET, where new customers can claim a 100% bonus up to €100 as part of the current ODDSET welcome bonus, as well as a €10 free bet, the odds for Inter Miami against Cincinnati are 3.25 for an away win for Noonan’s team.

This is probably due to the fact that, curiously, the league leaders have only average performance statistics. With 39 goals, FC Cincy has only the eighth-best offense in the Eastern Conference, while the 31 goals conceded mean the club has “only” the fifth-best defense. Time and again, results-oriented football has been the order of the day, as was the case in the recent 1-0 away win at Real Salt Lake. However, in their latest 3-0 win against the Herons just ten days ago, the Knifey Lions showed that they can do things differently…

Inter Miami – Cincinnati Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 5 – 2 – 5

The two teams have met a total of twelve times so far, with two draws and five wins each, meaning that the head-to-head record is currently even. At least in the recent past, however, the Knifey Lions have had the upper hand, losing only one of their last eight competitive games against Inter Miami (five wins, two draws) and just ten days ago securing a 3–0 home win against the Herons.

Inter Miami – Cincinnati Tip

Even if Messi plays, that is certainly no guarantee that the Herons will be able to defeat the visitors from Ohio, who are currently in such good form. Just ten days ago, Inter Miami suffered a 3-0 defeat to FC Cincy, which is why our prediction for Inter Miami vs. Cincinnati is that the reigning leaders will take the points. After all, the Knifey Lions have won six of their last seven MLS games, including four away wins in a row.

The Orange and Blue are also the only club against whom Messi has not been involved in a goal since his team’s exit from the 2025 Club World Cup. In all four other MLS games, however, La Pulga scored twice. Regardless of whether he is suspended or not, there is therefore a lot to suggest that the Knifey Lions will take something away from Chase Stadium.