
Has Inter Milan successfully recovered?
Four Brazilian teams have made it through to the knockout stages of the Club World Cup in the USA. In general, South American clubs make up the largest contingent in the round of 16 behind European clubs. However, that could change abruptly in the coming days, as two Brazilian representatives face each other in a direct duel, while Flamengo and Fluminense have tough nuts to crack. Considering the impressions from the group stage, however, the Champions League finalists are by no means favorites against Inter Milan.
The Rio de Janeiro team remained undefeated in the preliminary round and underlined their defensive strength, especially in the match against Borussia Dortmund. Against the Italian runners-up, coach Renato Gáucho’s team will once again try to trip up the favorites with a compact defense. Because the Nerazzurri have also struggled to create scoring chances and score goals so far, the forecast for Inter Milan’s round of 16 match against Fluminense is for a rather tough encounter with few goals in the game.
While I think it’s shaping up to be an interesting match with the potential for a surprise, the bookmakers with Apple Pay are assuming that the Lombards, who are considered to be the stronger team overall, will prevail. On the three-way market, odds of 1.77 are being offered on Inter Milan winning in regular time against Fluminense. Meanwhile, AdmiralBet is offering maximum odds of 2.95 on the underdogs progressing to the next round.
Inter Milan – Statistics & current form
From Inter Milan’s perspective, the lost Champions League final is just a month in the past, yet the Italian runners-up have already been given a new look. Simone Inzaghi has been replaced on the bench by Christian Chivu. In addition, there are several new signings who will be showing off their skills in the black and blue jersey for the first time in this club world championship.
First and foremost is Francesco Pio Esposito, who has returned to Inter on a one-year loan from second division side La Spezia with 19 goals to his name. Quite a few experts already see the 19-year-old as a new world-class striker for the Italian national team. The tall yet technically skilled center forward scored his first goal in the last group match, netting the important 1-0 against River Plate. After 90 intense minutes, the final score was 2-0 for Milan, who finished the preliminary round as group winners after all.
Inter continues to struggle with the aftermath of May 2025
However, it is also clear that the Serie A runners-up, who not only squandered the Scudetto in the final stretch of this season, but also lost out in the semifinals of the Coppa Italia and in the aforementioned title match for the Henkelpott, have not exactly covered themselves in glory on the pitch so far. They started with a disappointing draw against Monterrey, needed two late goals to leave the field with a 2-1 win against the self-sacrificing Japanese side from Urawa, and the score was 0-0 for a long time against River Plate before Esposito saved the “Beneamata.”
Nevertheless, it should not be forgotten that the aging team from the Italian fashion city is still struggling with the aftermath of its botched final sprint and is miles away from the form it showed in recent months, when it eliminated FC Bayern and Barcelona from the Champions League, among others.
Those who still believe in a triumph for the favorites based on their improved performance in the second and third group games will find betting odds of up to 1.77 between Inter Milan and Fluminense. For a win including a clean sheet, the Betano app offers odds of 2.62, which can easily be combined with Betano’s $20 free bet. Alternatively, you could bet on Lautaro Martinez to score. This offers odds of 2.65 at bookmaker Interwetten, which has extended its €11 Interwetten promotion for the Club World Cup until mid-July.
Fluminense – Statistics & current form
Fluminense has actually managed to score in only one of three group matches at this Club World Cup and still reach the round of 16. A 4-2 win against Ulsan HD, combined with two goalless draws against Borussia Dortmund and Mamelodi Sundowns, was enough to finish second behind BVB.
The Brazilians have thus achieved their minimum goal. Everything else is a bonus, especially given that the odds are clearly in favor of the Europeans ahead of the round of 16 match between Inter Milan and Fluminense. An underdog victory after 90 minutes would pay out 5.30 at Winamax. With such high betting odds, it makes perfect sense to take advantage of the Winamax bonus of up to €110, for example.
Fluminense defines itself through a stable defense
In general, the trend on Monday evening is definitely toward betting on a match with few goals during the game. After all, Fluminense is now unbeaten in nine competitive games. In five of these nine encounters, the experienced defense also kept a clean sheet. In fact, the men from Rio de Janeiro have conceded more than one goal in only four of 24 games in the 2025 calendar year, excluding the city championship. The defense, led by long-time European legionnaire Thiago Silva and 44-year-old goalkeeper Fabio, is therefore the clear trump card of coach Renato Gáucho’s team.
Because “Flu” is certainly weaker in terms of quality, the Brazilians would be well advised to defend a little deeper and more compactly. The underdogs are not expected to press high up the pitch and break down the opposition’s defense with short passing. Instead, the green, white, and reds must aim to keep a clean sheet for as long as possible and repeatedly hit their opponents on the break. It is quite possible that they will ultimately succeed. In any case, my Inter Milan vs. Fluminense prediction is for a low-scoring first half. I expect a maximum of one goal in the first 45 minutes. I would be very surprised to see more action before the break.
Inter Milan – Fluminense Head-to-head record / H2H record
This is the first time ever that the two clubs have faced each other in a competitive match. For Fluminense, it is already their second match against a European club after the aforementioned 0-0 draw with Borussia Dortmund (0-0). So far, the Brazilian clubs have performed brilliantly against the UEFA representatives. Botafogo beat Paris St. Germain, Flamengo defeated Chelsea, and Palmeiras also remained undefeated against FC Porto. Nevertheless, Inter Milan are the favorites on Monday evening!
Inter Milan – Fluminense Tip
All four Brazilian teams have made it through to the last 16. Because Palmeiras and Botafogo are facing each other in a direct duel, there will be at least one quarter-finalist from Brazil. Whether there will be a second one will be decided on Monday evening between Inter Milan and Fluminense, among others. On paper, the picture looks pretty clear in favor of the Champions League finalists. However, I wouldn’t rule out a surprise, so a three-way bet doesn’t make sense given the odds on offer.
Instead, I’m going to try my luck with the Inter Milan vs. Fluminense game, betting that Chivu’s team won’t lose after regular time and that there will be no more than one goal in the first 45 minutes. You can get top odds of 1.62 for this match combo at AdmiralBet. I’m betting six out of a possible ten units.