Will the Scandinavians rub salt in the wound?
Norway has only qualified for the World Cup three times in its history. In all three cases, they faced Italy in the final round, and in addition to two defeats in the round of 16, the 0-1 defeat in the preliminary round in 1994 was also responsible for the Scandinavians’ elimination. Now the red, white, and blue are getting their belated revenge, as the group victory is almost certain for the long-suffering nation, which has missed out on the last twelve European Championship and World Cup finals in a row. For the Squadra Azzurra to still climb to first place, Italy would have to beat Norway by no less than nine (!) goals.
In fact, the Bet365 app doesn’t even list odds for Italy winning by nine goals. The bookmaker stops at a three-goal lead, for which the odds are already at 7.00. This underlines the impressive form of the Norwegian team, which we believe is capable of rubbing salt into the wounds of the four-time world champions at San Siro and also winning the return leg against the Squadra Azzurra. Given the offensive power of the Landslaget, we expect a high-scoring match, which is why we find the greatest value in betting on over 2.5 goals being scored.
The fact that the Norwegian national soccer team is finally returning to the big stage after more than a quarter of a century is not only due to the work of coach Stale Solbakken, but also, of course, to the once-in-a-century talent Erling Haaland. The superstar has already scored 53 goals in 47 international matches in the red, white, and blue national jersey and has scored a surreal 14 goals in just seven matches in Group I of the World Cup qualifiers. That’s an average of two goals per qualifying match.
A very reasonable alternative is therefore to bet on the 25-year-old scoring at San Siro, for which Bet365 is offering odds of 2.10 for Italy vs. Norway.
Italy – Norway Head-to-head record / H2H record
Head to head: 10 – 4 – 4
There have been 18 international matches between the two nations so far, with the Squadra Azzurra winning more than half of them, with ten victories. In the first leg in Oslo, however, Norway recorded a resounding 3–0 home win over Italy, laying the foundation for a direct ticket to the 2026 World Cup, which is now only theoretically possible, with their first competitive win against Italy since 1991.
Italy – Norway Tip
It would not be the first time, especially in the recent past, that the Squadra Azzurra has missed out on an important tournament. Italy has already secured a place in the playoffs. Nevertheless, there has been repeated alienation from the tifosi, who repeatedly expressed their displeasure during Thursday evening’s 2-0 away win in Moldova. If Italy’s prediction of a home win for Gennaro Gattuso’s team against Norway comes true, it would be a chance for reconciliation, although it would take a nine-goal victory to overtake the Scandinavians. Nevertheless, everyone involved knows what is at stake and will certainly give it their all.
Considering that the Norwegians were outstanding in attack, scoring an incredible 33 goals in seven qualifying games – including 14 from superstar Erling Haaland alone – we expect a very lively and action-packed match at the venerable San Siro. Therefore, there is a lot of value in betting on at least three goals being scored in the second leg as well.
The odds for over 2.5 goals in Italy vs. Norway are 1.67, which we are betting on at Bet365 with five out of ten units.
