Will the Partenopei keep their cool in Apulia?
Inter Milan slipped up twice in a row and SSC Napoli were there to pick up the points both times, meaning they now lead the table by three points ahead of the Nerazzurri. There is now a lot to suggest that the Partenopei can clinch their fourth Scudetto in the summer. But first, they have to confidently complete their task in Apulia. Basically, the odds are in favor of an away win for the Azzurri against Lecce.
Not only have the Partenopei lost just one of their last nine Serie A games against the Giallorossi (six wins, two draws), but US Lecce are also currently in free fall. The Wolves have not won in eleven Serie A games (four draws, seven defeats). If Lecce fails to win at home against Napoli, they could find themselves in a relegation spot if either of their pursuers, Venezia or Empoli, pick up three points.
US Lecce is therefore under pressure itself, but now has the major problem of struggling in attack. With only 24 goals, the Giallorossi have the weakest offense in Serie A. And now, of all times, the Partenopei, who have conceded only 25 goals in 34 league games, the most stable defense in Italy’s top flight, are coming to the Via del Mare. Against this backdrop, it is not very likely that the Wolves will score a goal.
Lecce – Statistics & current form
Unione Sportiva Lecce had a solid start to the 2024/25 season, but then fell into a downward spiral in the second half of the season. Under Marco Gialpaolo, the lead over the first relegation spot has shrunk to two points following an eleven-game winless streak (four draws, seven defeats). If betting tips on wins for Venezia and/or Empoli come in on matchday 35 in Serie A, the Giallorossi could find themselves in a direct relegation spot if they fail to win at home against the current league leaders.
The bookmakers are giving the Wolves very little chance of success. At Bet365, where new customers can get up to $100 in betting credits with the Bet365 bonus, the odds for Lecce against Napoli are 7.00 for a home win for the Apulians, who have won only one of their last nine Serie A matches against the Partenopei (two draws, six defeats). The Giallorossi have failed to score in their last three games against Napoli.
Lecce are simply too tame in attack
Not only in direct comparison with the Partenopei, but also overall, the lack of attacking punch is the Wolves’ big problem. US Lecce have scored just 24 goals in their first 34 games. That is the lowest tally in the league. Even AC Monza, who are almost certain to be relegated, have scored more (25). The fact that the best defense in Serie A is now coming to the Via del Mare makes the task all the more challenging.
At the same time, however, the Apulians have recently shown a defiant reaction. When the Serie A away game at Atalanta Bergamo was not postponed, much to the annoyance of everyone involved, despite the death of a physiotherapist, the Giallorossi scored a surprise point (1-1) against the Champions League hopefuls from Lombardy, putting in a very strong performance, especially defensively. They now need to build on this in front of their home crowd.
Napoli – Statistics & current form
SSC Napoli were a very hot property in the first half of the 2025 Serie A season – partly because Antonio Conte, who joined the club at the foot of Vesuvius alongside his favorite pupil Romelu Lukaku, was able to immediately give the team a new look with his system after a disappointing tenth place finish in last year’s final table. But when Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, one of the team’s key players, was allowed to leave for Paris Saint-Germain in the winter without a replacement, many experts predicted a slump for the Azzurri.
In fact, the frustrated Partenopei did experience a slight slump, during which Inter Milan regained the lead in the standings. However, they shook off their slump, which saw them go five league games without a win (four draws, one defeat), in emphatic fashion. The Campania-based side are now unbeaten in eight Serie A games (five wins, three draws) and are back in first place with three consecutive clean sheets.
Will Napoli win the championship thanks to their defensive compactness?
They are now three points ahead of Inter Milan and their last four opponents are Lecce, Genoa, Parma, and Cagliari. This puts enormous pressure on them, at least psychologically, because if they fail to win their fourth Scudetto in the club’s history against all odds, it will probably be said that the southern Italians have beaten themselves. At least recently, however, Antonio Conte’s players have been in good form, which is why the tip for an away win at Lecce against Napoli at the Via del Mare looks very promising.
In addition to the quality of target player Romelu Lukaku, who has already been involved in 22 goals (twelve goals, ten assists), the defensive compactness that the new coach has cultivated in Campania is the team’s biggest asset. With just 25 goals conceded in 34 league games, they have the best record in the league and the Partenopei have the most stable defense in Serie A. The fact that this game will also be decided by defensive compactness is further supported by the fact that the hosts, who are fighting against relegation, will have to open up and play for the win sooner or later, which should finally open up the necessary space for the Azzurri, who don’t need too many chances anyway.
Lecce – Napoli Head-to-head record / H2H record
Head to head: 7 – 14 – 17
There have only been 38 meetings between the two teams so far, with SSC Napoli leading the head-to-head record with 17 wins. US Lecce has only won seven games against the Partenopei and has won only one of the last nine matches against the Azzurri (two draws, six defeats). Most recently, the Giallorossi failed to score in three consecutive games against the Neapolitans.
Lecce – Napoli Tip
All in all, our prediction for Lecce against Napoli is an away win for the Partenopei, who would successfully defend their lead in the table. Not only does momentum favor the Azzurri, but also the fact that the weakest offense in Serie A is facing the best defense. Even one goal from the Giallorossi is not overly likely, so a single goal could potentially be enough for the Neapolitans at the Via del Mare to secure their fourth consecutive clean sheet.
It would therefore be quite conceivable to bet on a clean sheet for the visitors, which would of course drive up the betting odds significantly for Lecce against Napoli. However, it should not be ruled out that the Giallorossi are in a relegation battle and could slip below the line in the event of a home defeat. This means that the Wolves are likely to play much more riskily, especially if they find themselves 0-1 down.
To take this into account, we are sticking with the three-way system and recommending a straightforward bet on option 2, which we are boldly backing at VBET at odds of 1.52 with eight out of ten units.