Who will take a big step up the table?
It is difficult for clubs to find their way back into the English top flight from the Championship. 24 clubs compete against each other in this highly competitive competition. Daniel Farke has already made it from there to the Premier League three times. The German coach can take another step closer to staying up in the Leeds vs. Nottingham tip.
At the beginning of December, the tide turned in West Yorkshire and Leeds United finally found a way to win points again after a long dry spell. Since then, Farke’s protégés have lost only two of eleven Premier League games leading up to this Leeds vs. Nottingham prediction (3W, 6D).
The clash against the Tricky Trees is of great importance at this stage of the season. Both teams are level on points (26 each) and occupy the places immediately above the relegation zone. They are six points ahead of West Ham in 18th place.
Their form curves are also similar – and trending upwards. Recently, both clubs have lost only one of four competitive games (2W, 1D each) and have mostly been solid defensively. We can dismiss the Whites’ recent 4-0 defeat to title contenders Arsenal as an exception.
The visitors impressed recently with a 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace. Sean Dyche’s team played with 10 men for 45 minutes and did not allow a single shot on their own goal during that period. The Garibaldi Reds were compact and disciplined, keeping the spaces between players and chains small.
Leeds – Nottingham Head-to-head record
Nottingham won the first leg 3-1 at their own stadium. Before that, however, Leeds had won two consecutive encounters. It is interesting to look at the head-to-head record between the two coaches. Daniel Farke has not won any of his four encounters with Sean Dyche (1D, 3L).
On average, only 2.0 goals were scored in these four games between the two coaches. We are also basing our Leeds vs. Nottingham tip on this, and there are enough current statistics to suggest a low-scoring game. We are particularly skeptical about Nottingham’s offense.
Leeds – Nottingham prediction
Only bottom-of-the-table Wolverhampton (6.7 percent) has a weaker shooting conversion rate from Premier League matchdays so far than Nottingham (8.5 percent). Dyche’s team always focuses on strong defense, but too often neglects its attacking play.
At the end of six of the last eight Premier League games, Dyche looked at his team’s statistics sheet and saw that they had created fewer than one expected goal for his team. Nevertheless, the visitors are unbeaten in four PL matchdays (2W, 2D).
The Garibaldi Reds’ defensive play does offer added value. Nottingham have conceded only two goals in their last four PL games and have even finished three of their previous five competitive games (across all competitions) with a clean sheet.
Small details, perhaps even a single moment, will decide this match between two clubs threatened with relegation. The winner of this pairing can take a big step towards staying up.
