Will Leeds lose its home advantage?
On Friday evening, Leeds United and West Ham United kick off the ninth matchday of the Premier League at Elland Road. The promoted team lost its last two games and now ranks 16th in the table with eight points from its first eight games. The Hammers, on the other hand, are performing even worse, having also lost their last two games and sitting in 19th place with four points. However, the Londoners have not always performed badly away from home, picking up all four points on the road – they have a goal difference of 6:9 in their five away games. What’s particularly noteworthy is that all six goals were scored in the second half, which is why our Leeds vs. West Ham tip is “West Ham to score in the second half.”
Leeds United has had its ups and downs in this Premier League season. After an impressive run of 23 consecutive unbeaten home games (18 wins, five draws), the strong Elland Road streak recently ended with a 1-2 defeat to Tottenham. The Whites last suffered two consecutive home defeats in the league in May 2024 – something they are now desperate to avoid. Historically, things have not gone well against West Ham at home recently either: after winning eight of their nine home games against the Hammers between 1996 and 2005, Leeds are now winless in four home games against the London club (two draws, two defeats).
Despite recent setbacks, Daniel Farke’s team is showing a lot of commitment in attack. With an average of 13 shots on goal per game, Leeds has the highest average of any promoted team since their own return to the Premier League in 2020/21 (13.7 at the time). However, they are struggling to convert their chances – only 6.7% of their shots are currently resulting in goals, the club’s lowest rate since records began in 2013/14. The match also brings to mind a historical parallel: Leeds’ last Premier League home game on a Friday evening was also against West Ham in December 2020 – the Whites lost 2-1 on that occasion.
For West Ham, the season has been extremely disappointing so far. With only four points from eight games, the club is experiencing its worst start to a Premier League season ever. The last time the club had as few points after eight games in the English top flight was in 1988/89 – the team ultimately finished 19th and was relegated. Under new coach Nuno Espírito Santo, who has yet to win in his three league games with the Hammers (one draw, two defeats), the team is still waiting for its first victory. The last coach to fail to win in his first four Premier League games with West Ham was Manuel Pellegrini in September 2018.
The statistics underscore the current crisis: West Ham has only been in the lead for 3% of playing time this season—the lowest figure of any Premier League team. In contrast, the Londoners have been behind in 48% of their games so far. In our Leeds vs. West Ham prediction, we therefore predict that they will fall behind again. On a positive note, the Hammers have won four of their last six league games against Leeds across all seasons (one draw, one defeat) – as many wins as in the previous 37 direct encounters combined (twelve draws, 21 defeats).
Leeds – West Ham Head-to-head record / H2H record
Leeds United and West Ham United have faced each other 79 times in direct competition – 74 times in the Premier League, four times in the Championship, and once in the FA Cup. The record clearly favors the Whites: Leeds have won 40 of these matches, while West Ham have won 18 and 21 matches have ended in a draw. The goal difference is also clearly in Leeds’ favor at 143:102.
Leeds – West Ham England Tip
Leeds United recently suffered a defeat against Tottenham after 23 consecutive unbeaten home games. With West Ham still winless under coach Nuno Espirito Santo, we believe in the Whites’ home strength and predict that they will not lose this game and that at least two goals will be scored – as has been the case in every away game for the Hammers so far. For this tip, you can expect betting odds of 1.60 for the Leeds vs. West Ham match.
Considering how little time the Londoners have spent in the lead so far, we are once again predicting that they will fall behind. This would be nothing new for the Hammers, as they are known to display their offensive power in the second half: they scored all six of their away goals after the break – and also earned all four of their Premier League points on the road. With both teams having lost their last two games, it remains to be seen who can break the negative streak this time.
