Is BVB aiming for the top four?

Eight points behind Bayern and twelve points ahead of Frankfurt – the 2024/25 season is already over for Bayer 04 Leverkusen. The reigning double winners will remain without a title and will return to the Champions League group stage as runners-up next season. Presumably with a new coach and a new team. Meanwhile, BVB would love to accompany the Werkself into the premier class. However, if Dortmund fails to win away against Leverkusen, the Champions League train could leave without the Westphalians as early as this weekend.

At least BVB is only one point behind SC Freiburg in the wake of its latest upswing, so the Champions League, which had recently seemed a distant prospect, is not completely out of reach. Despite picking up 16 out of a possible 18 points from its last six games, however, the prognosis for the Black and Yellows’ next victory against Leverkusen is fraught with considerable risks. After all, the Werkself have lost just two of their 32 Bundesliga games in 2024/25 (19 wins, eleven draws) – that’s nine fewer defeats than BVB.

At least Borussia Dortmund has always felt very comfortable at the BayArena recently. The Black and Yellows have not lost any of their last three Bundesliga away games here (two wins, one draw). So there is certainly hope that Bayer Leverkusen, where the threat of summer departures has recently caused a lot of unrest in the disintegrating successful team, will not be quite as focused.

Leverkusen vs. Dortmund AI prediction

When asked for its AI prediction for Leverkusen vs. Dortmund, supercomputer BETSiE’s decision is remarkably clear: The AI predicts a home win for the Werkself as the most likely outcome of the 33rd matchday, with odds of 2.65 listed in the Interwetten app. This implies a probability of 37.7 percent, meaning that value is already created with a 38 percent probability of a Leverkusen home win. BETSiE, on the other hand, ignores all the noise surrounding the Black and Reds and gives Bayer 04 a 50.3 percent chance of winning. As mentioned, you can’t get any more value than that, although from a human perspective we would be very cautious with this AI tip…

Leverkusen – Statistics & current form

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won the first leg in Dortmund and now has the chance to win both Bundesliga matches against BVB for the first time since the 2006/07 season. However, the Werkself has been waiting for a win against the Black and Yellows for three Bundesliga home games – longer than against any other current Bundesliga team (one draw, two defeats).

Meanwhile, the Rhinelanders are unbeaten in seven Bundesliga games (four wins, three draws). Only Union Berlin are currently on a longer unbeaten run. The 2-2 draw in Freiburg on the last matchday was their third draw in their last four games. With a total of eleven draws, Bayer 04 leads this statistic across the league, together with RB Leipzig. The Black and Reds have lost just two of their 32 league games, which is why it is quite surprising that the betting odds with Klarna are leaning towards the visitors in Leverkusen against Dortmund.

Will the “Invincibles” fall apart in the summer?

The Werkself may have the second-best offense in the Bundesliga behind FC Bayern with 68 goals, but questions about whether superstar Florian Wirtz will join Bayern, where Xabi Alonso will end up, and which other key players are likely to leave are currently causing a great deal of unrest. The team must therefore first improve its efficiency in front of goal, having converted 47 percent of its big chances (joint best with Borussia Mönchengladbach). At least the Werkself has picked up 13 points after falling behind this season, with only FC Bayern picking up more (14).

Florian Wirtz has been Leverkusen’s most consistent player this season: he is the only player in the Bundesliga to have scored ten goals and provided ten assists in both 2023/24 and 2024/25. He also set up ten goals from open play – the highest number in the league. In the return match against Dortmund, he is now aiming to secure his first Bundesliga home win against BVB under coach Xabi Alonso. At the same time, however, there are growing signs that this will be the 22-year-old’s last home game in the black and red jersey…

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in six Bundesliga games (five wins, one draw) and have won three games in a row for the first time this season. With 16 points from these six games, BVB are the form team in the league, which means that Niko Kovac, who stumbled at the start, has now finally arrived in Westphalia. This run has seen his team climb to fifth place – their best position since matchday 13.

The efficiency of Dortmund’s offense is particularly striking: with a conversion rate of 21 percent, BVB leads the league. The 64 goals scored this season also put them in third place in the league, just behind Bayern and Leverkusen. This further reinforces our prediction that Leverkusen vs. Dortmund could be a high-scoring affair at the BayArena, with only a win really mattering for BVB in the battle for fourth place.

Guirassy as the face of Dortmund’s resurgence

Top scorer Serhou Guirassy has already scored twelve goals in the second half of the season and has 19 goals for the season – the same number as Leverkusen’s Patrik Schick. With one more goal, Guirassy would equal the record for the most goals scored by a player in his first Bundesliga season for BVB (20 – last achieved in 1992/93 by Stéphane Chapuisat).

Despite its strong offense, however, Dortmund has shown weaknesses in defense: with 49 goals conceded, BVB has only the ninth-best defense in the league. In this millennium, Dortmund has conceded only twice more goals in a Bundesliga season – in 2007/08 (62) and 2021/22 (52). However, it is also true that Borussia’s opponents have sometimes overperformed. This is at least shown by the expected goals against value of just 39.6, which the Black and Yellows have exceeded by almost ten. Only Bayern (23.9) and Leverkusen (32.7) have a lower xGA value than the Westphalians…

Leverkusen – Dortmund Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 34 – 27 – 46

A total of 107 matches have been played between the two teams so far, with Borussia Dortmund leading the head-to-head record with 46 wins. The Black and Yellows were defeated 2-3 in the first leg at Signal Iduna Park, but have not lost any of their last three away games at the BayArena (two wins, one draw).

Leverkusen – Dortmund Tip

All in all, our prediction for Dortmund against Leverkusen is that the Westphalians will pick up a point. They have been in extremely good form in recent weeks and are still working towards a very concrete goal in fourth place, while the Werkself are falling apart and the runner-up spot is already a foregone conclusion. Of course, the Black and Reds, who have lost only two of their last 66 Bundesliga games across two seasons, have the quality to spoil BVB’s party in the battle for the Champions League. Nevertheless, the Westphalians travel to the BayArena with the aim of taking all three points.

In our opinion, there are many indications that this will be an action-packed and potentially very heated Sunday game, in which we definitely expect one or two goals. The tip for over 3.5 goals is very interesting, with odds of 2.18 available for Dortmund vs. Leverkusen at Betano, which we are cautiously betting on with three out of ten units.