Will the Werkself keep the cup winners at bay?
VfB Stuttgart’s assessment of the 2025/26 season is quite ambivalent. On the one hand, the reigning cup winners are back on track for Europe in sixth place and have had their second-best Bundesliga season since winning the championship in 2007, with 26 points from 15 games. On the other hand, however, they have won only one of their last five league games (two draws, two defeats).
Bayer 04 Leverkusen, on the other hand, has regained its footing under Kasper Hjulmand and is spending the winter break in third place. However, if Leverkusen’s prediction of an away win for VfB Stuttgart comes true, VfB would draw level on points with the Werkself.
However, there is very little to suggest an away win for the White and Reds, as the Swabians are visiting one of their absolute bogey teams. The Baden-Württemberg side have won only one of their last 29 competitive games against Leverkusen (nine draws, 19 defeats) and are currently waiting for another win after 15 meetings – longer than against any other current Bundesliga team. Consequently, our prediction for Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart favors the home side, although we expect a hotly contested match in any case. Our main recommendation is therefore the match combo of over 2.5 goals with both teams scoring.
If you are looking for higher odds for Leverkusen against VfB Stuttgart, but are also willing to take a slightly higher risk, you can also try one of the two suggested alternatives. Considering that the Black and Reds have such a strong record against VfB and recorded two convincing wins against Cologne (2-0) and RB Leipzig (3-1) before the winter break, tip 1 would also be a viable option in principle, for which Betano is offering odds of 1.95.
Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart Prediction AI
AI fortunately underscores our assessments. The AI also expects a high-scoring match, calculating an expected goals value of 3.13 (1.9 for Werkself and 1.23 for the Swabians), making at least three goals and goals on both sides very likely. However, the AI prediction finds the greatest value in the three-way system for Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart. The Bet-at-home app lists odds of 1.95 for a home win for the Rhinelanders, which implies a probability of 51.3 percent.
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
After two absolutely exceptional years, Bayer 04 Leverkusen has fallen apart somewhat this summer. Xabi Alonso, the championship-winning coach, has left, while several cornerstones of the 2023/24 season, which brought the Werkself the double, have also turned their backs on the club. Without superstars such as Florian Wirtz, Jonathan Tah, Jeremie Fimpong, and Piero Hincapíe, but with Erik ten Hag as the new head coach, the Black and Reds got off to a false start in the new season. Remarkably quickly, the ripcord was pulled again on the coaching bench.
However, the rough season predicted at the beginning of September did not materialize in the end, thanks primarily to Kasper Hjulmand. The Dane stabilized the Rhinelanders noticeably and earned 28 out of a possible 39 points, which was an even better start than Xabi Alonso had achieved. In fact, no Leverkusen coach since Sami Hyypiä (31 out of a possible 39 points in 2013) has scored so well in his first 13 league games with the Werkself.
Leverkusen knocking on the door again
Bayer 04 may only be 20th in the Champions League table, but overall the club is back on track. If Leverkusen beat VfB Stuttgart at home, they could even return to second place. In any case, the Rhinelanders remain on course to qualify for the Champions League again.
Ibrahim Maza, Sliesse Ben Seghir, and Christian Kofane, who are away at the Africa Cup of Nations, will be missing at the start of the year, joining injured key players such as Exequiel Palacios. Nevertheless, Kasper Hjulmand should be able to field a very strong team, which recently showed some morale and, in their latest 3-1 win in Leipzig, was able to turn a deficit into a victory in the Bundesliga for the first time since March.
VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form
VfB Stuttgart may be looking back on a somewhat sobering Bundesliga season, finishing in ninth place, but they won the DFB Cup last summer, which earned the White and Reds a place in the Europa League. Things went quite well there. With twelve out of a possible 18 points, Sebastian Hoeneß’s team is in ninth place and could still qualify directly for the round of 16.
In addition, the Swabians are also doing well in all other competitions. The defending champions have once again made it to the quarterfinals of the DFB Cup and are in a solid sixth place in the Bundesliga. Should they manage an away win at the BayArena, for which bookmakers with a German license are offering odds of 3.60 for Leverkusen against VfB Stuttgart, the 2007 champions would draw level on points with the Werkself and could cautiously start eyeing a Champions League spot again.
VfB Stuttgart with a disastrous record against Leverkusen
Speaking of the 2007 championship: Since that exceptional season, the Swabians have had their second-best start to a season after the 2023/24 season, which, as is well known, ended with them finishing runners-up behind today’s hosts Leverkusen. The Baden-Württemberg team has already earned 26 out of a possible 45 points, but after a strong run of six wins in seven consecutive Bundesliga games, they have won only one of their last five league games (two draws, two losses).
The away game at the BayArena will therefore not be easy, especially since Stuttgart has historically struggled against the Black and Reds. Not only have the Swabians been waiting for another win against the Werkself for 15 competitive games, longer than against any other current Bundesliga team, but they have also only managed a single win in their last 29 encounters with the Rhinelanders (nine draws, 19 defeats).
Leverkusen – VfB Stuttgart Head-to-head record
Head to head: 45 – 25 – 23
A total of 93 meetings have taken place between the two clubs so far, with Bayer 04 Leverkusen leading the head-to-head record very clearly with 45 wins. The Black and Reds have lost just one of their last 29 competitive games against VfB Stuttgart (19 wins, nine draws) and have remained unbeaten in 15 consecutive competitive games against the Baden-Württemberg side since a 1-0 defeat in April 2018. VfB have not won against any other current Bundesliga team in so long.
Leverkusen – VfB Stuttgart Tip
Basically, our prediction for Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart is a home win for the Rhinelanders, who went into the winter break with two impressive victories and are now back on track. However, the Swabians also had an impressive first half of the season.
Although Hoeneß’s team has to face one of its biggest rivals, we believe that a good result is certainly not out of the question.
Although there is certainly value to be found in the three-way system, according to the artificial intelligence assessment, we would advise a degree of caution here, especially as both teams will be missing some key players at the start of 2026, which makes an accurate prediction even more difficult.
In any case, we expect goals from both sides and a rather action-packed Bundesliga duel on Saturday evening, which is why the corresponding match combo is our main recommendation. For both teams to score and at least three goals to be scored at the BayArena, Bet365 is offering odds of 1.69 for Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart, which we are betting on with five out of ten units.
