How will last year’s league winners fare?
On the first matchday of the Champions League, Liverpool FC will face Atletico Madrid at Anfield Road. Both teams fell short of expectations in last season’s CL and were eliminated in the round of 16 – the Reds in particular had certainly expected more after finishing top of the table in the league phase.
In the league, the reigning English champions are comfortably in first place in the table and are the only team to have won all four games so far. This season, however, Liverpool have been notable for their late goals. On the first matchday, they won thanks to two goals in the 88th and 94th minutes, and on matchday two against Newcastle, the decisive goal came in the 100th minute.
The Reds won the top match against Arsenal in the 83rd minute with a direct free kick, and last weekend Mohamed Salah decided the match against Burnley in the 95th minute with a penalty. So don’t turn off your TV too early when watching LFC games this year, because in our Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, we expect another victory for the team from Merseyside.
Things aren’t going so well for Atletico in La Liga: only five points after the first few matchdays indicate a weak start to the season. At least Diego Simeone’s team was able to record its first win of the season with a 2-0 victory over Villareal on the last matchday. This put the Rojiblancos in eleventh place in the league and in the clear underdog position in the duel against Liverpool.
Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid prediction AI
In the match between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid, the AI prediction is relatively clear in favor of the English team. However, a win bet on the underdog seems to be of value, as the Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid betting odds for a win by the visitors are 5.50, resulting in a probability of 18 percent – our AI, on the other hand, calculates a 23.2 percent probability of a win for the Spaniards – thus offering clear value.
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
Liverpool failed to win any of their first four Champions League encounters with Atletico Madrid between 2008 and 2020, before the Reds won both games in the 2021/22 group stage. Last season, they finished the league phase as the best team, with seven wins from eight games and 21 points – the highest tally of any participant.
At Anfield Road, Liverpool celebrated four wins with a goal difference of 10:1, including a 2:0 victory against reigning champions Real Madrid. In our Liverpool vs. Atlético Madrid prediction, we therefore believe once again that both teams will not score.
Salah continues his record chase
Coach Arne Slot already faced Atletico Madrid with Feyenoord in the 2023/24 group stage. Despite two defeats (1-3, 2-3), his team recorded more shots (29-16) and a better expected goals value (3.6-2.1). Liverpool’s defense has been particularly impressive recently, with center-back duo Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate keeping five clean sheets in seven appearances last season, the best record of any defensive pairing with at least five games played.
Mohamed Salah is also chasing more records. With 44 goals and 17 assists, he is Liverpool’s best player in Champions League history. If he plays against Atletico, he will overtake Steven Gerrard (73 appearances) and become second in the club’s all-time rankings. Only Jamie Carragher (80 games) will then be ahead of him. For another goal from the Egyptian, which we believe he is capable of scoring in our Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, you will find odds of 2.47 in the Betano app.
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
Atletico Madrid prevailed against Liverpool in the round of 16 in 2019/20, winning both games, but since then, the Rojiblancos have won only one of their last eight matches against English teams in the Champions League (two draws, five defeats) – a 1-0 win at Manchester United in March 2022. This time, we believe they will suffer another defeat.
Atletico generally get off to a stable start in the Champions League. In their last ten opening games, they have recorded five wins and four draws, with their only defeat coming in October 2020 when they lost 4-0 to Bayern Munich. If you think Atletico will remain unbeaten again, you can secure Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid odds of 2.37 for the double chance.
Defense as a trademark
Under Diego Simeone, defense is the trademark: 42 percent of games ended without conceding a goal (48 out of 115) – the best record of any Spanish club in the Champions League under a coach with at least 50 games. That’s why we’re predicting another low-scoring game with under 2.5 goals.
Antoine Griezmann remains the key player, having been directly involved in 26 percent of Atletico’s Champions League goals (51 out of 197) – more than Lionel Messi at Barcelona (25 percent). Captain Koke is part of a special quartet: He has already played 102 games under Simeone in the Champions League and joins a group of Manchester United legends in terms of CL appearances under the same coach – Ryan Giggs (134), Paul Scholes (124), and Gary Neville (109) under Sir Alex Ferguson.
Liverpool – Atlético Madrid Head-to-head record
The head-to-head record between Liverpool and Atlético Madrid is completely even after nine encounters. Both teams have celebrated three wins each, with three draws. The goal difference is slightly in favor of the English side at 12:11. The teams have played each other six times in the Champions League, twice in the Europa League, and once in the Audi Cup.
Liverpool – Atlético Madrid Tip
Liverpool FC performed very strongly in the last CL group stage and finished top of the group. Liverpool won all four games at home and conceded only one goal. For this reason, we strongly agree with the Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid betting odds and expect another victory for the Reds. In addition, we expect under 2.5 goals, as both defenses are always very stable.
Atletico have lost only one of their last ten opening games, and even though Diego Simeone’s team are still finding their feet in the league, they should never be underestimated on the international stage. However, the Rojiblancos have won only one of their last eight matches against English teams in the Champions League, which is why we are betting on the Premier League winners here.
