Will Mbappé and Co. take three points from Anfield?

The most prestigious matchup of Matchday 4 in the UEFA Champions League will take place on Tuesday evening at Anfield Road. Liverpool FC will face off against the Royals from Madrid. A total of 21 titles in Europe’s most important club competition will clash head-to-head.

In seven of the last ten CL seasons alone, one of the two clubs has been in the final – Real or LFC have triumphed six times. For the upcoming Liverpool vs. Real Madrid prediction, however, it must be taken into account that only one opponent is currently in the form needed to dream of lifting the trophy on May 30, 2026. That’s when the final will take place in the Hungarian capital Budapest.

While coach Xabi Alonso’s team has played a very strong season so far, winning 13 of 14 competitive games, the Reds are still struggling. After six defeats in seven matches, the reigning English champions finally celebrated a win again at the weekend against Aston Villa. Nevertheless, the differing form curves ahead of the Liverpool vs. Real Madrid match mean that the initial prediction leans more towards the visiting team.

In the three-way market, slightly lower odds are being offered for a home win for Liverpool against Real Madrid. At Bet365, the odds for an LFC win are 2.50, compared to 2.60 for an away win for the Madrid team. In addition to the 1X2 bet, the official betting partner of the UEFA Champions League also offers a wide range of other soccer bets, including Asian goal and handicap lines.

Liverpool vs. Real Madrid AI prediction

Several conclusions can be drawn from the Liverpool vs. Real Madrid AI prediction. First, the xG values of 1.73 and 1.66 strongly suggest that both teams will score at least once. Adding the expected goals together gives a total of 3.39. This in turn suggests potential bets on over 2.5, over 2.75, over 3, or over 3.25. However, the most appealing value is probably the 2.50 on an LFC home win.

Liverpool – Statistics & current form

The current slump in form was already mentioned in the introduction. The star-studded team from Merseyside has lost four Premier League games in a row. Added to this was their embarrassing exit from the EFL Cup, which was accepted with regard to the C-team fielded by coach Arne Slot. It was only with Saturday evening’s 2-0 win over Aston Villa that the Reds took their first step out of the crisis.

Despite the crisis: never count Liverpool FC out!

For the first time since September 14, 2025, the reigning national champions kept a clean sheet across all competitions. Previously, the LFC’s biggest weakness had been its overly vulnerable defense. Conceding 14 goals in seven competitive games since the end of September made it considerably more difficult to score points consistently.

However, I think it is very unlikely that keeper Mamardashvili, who continues to stand in for the injured Alisson Becker, will be able to keep a clean sheet in the Champions League on Tuesday evening. Instead, my Liverpool vs. Real Madrid prediction is that the visitors from the Spanish capital will once again expose the English side’s weaknesses in defending against the ball. You can get odds of 1.77 for over 1.5 Real goals in the Bet365 app.

Regardless of the current crisis in results and performance, coach Arne Slot’s team must of course be given credit for their home form. On the one hand, because the Reds have won 20 of their last 22 CL home games in the league or group stage (20-1-1). On the other hand, because Liverpool have won ten of 13 CL games since the start of last season with Slot on the sidelines. Slot is now the coach who has achieved ten Champions League wins with an English club the fastest. Offensively, Salah, Gakpo, and Co. have so much quality that I recommend the combined betting odds for both teams to score over 2.5 goals (1.58 @Bet365) for the Liverpool vs. Real Madrid match.

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

For the fifth time in history, Real Madrid has started a Champions League season with three wins from three games. Exciting: in two of the four previous cases, the Galacticos ultimately won the crown in Europe’s premier competition. The Spanish giants are once again considered strong contenders to win the trophy this season.

Kylian Mbappé is currently making the difference at Real Madrid

This is surprising insofar as coach Xabi Alonso’s team has had a really strong season so far, winning 13 of 14 competitive games, leading the La Liga standings very confidently, and most recently leaving the field as winners six times in a row across all competitions. These include the “Clásico” against FC Barcelona (2-1) and the recent Champions League home game against Juventus (1-0).

Apart from that, Los Blancos had the most shots on goal (37) in the first three matchdays of the UEFA Champions League. Kylian Mbappé was of course partly responsible for this, having already scored five Champions League goals this season and probably being in the best form of his Real Madrid career.

The Frenchman has scored a total of 21 competitive goals since mid-August. The world footballer has only failed to get on the scoreboard in two games. There are therefore plenty of reasons to consider betting on Mbappé scoring in the match between Liverpool and Real Madrid. Risk-taking bettors can bet on the striker putting his team 1-0 ahead.

Liverpool – Real Madrid Head-to-head record

The clubs are facing each other for the 13th time in Europe’s most important club competition. While Liverpool always had the upper hand in the first three encounters between 1981 and 2009, the tide has turned dramatically over the last decade and a half. Real Madrid has won seven of the last nine games (7-1-1). Since the start of the 2017/18 season, the Royals have also won five of seven games. However, the last direct duel in November 2024 ended 2-0 in Liverpool’s favor. On Tuesday evening, however, recent impressions paint a different picture. One in favor of the world-class team from the Spanish capital!

Liverpool – Real Madrid Tip

In the big match between Liverpool and Real Madrid, you can once again benefit from the Bet365 betting configurator combo boost. As a Wettbasis reader, you will receive exclusive higher odds if you combine goals from both teams with over 2.5 goals and at least one goal in the first 45 minutes.

Basically, I also expect a game in which a few goals will be scored. Ultimately, however, I believe that the visitors from Madrid are simply in better form at the moment and can bring greater momentum to bear. Although LFC’s home advantage is keeping me from placing a three-way bet on the Royals, I’m still going to try my luck ahead of the Liverpool vs. Real Madrid match by betting on an away win for Real +0 AHC. In the event of a draw, I would get my five-unit stake back.