Clear winner in El Tráfico?
The Los Angeles derby, known as “El Tráfico,” has only taken place 25 times. But it is already one of the hottest rivalries in Major League Soccer. Numerous last-minute goals, many high-scoring encounters, rarely one-sided games and a high level of animosity between the two sets of fans characterize this match, which will be played for the 26th time this weekend. This time, we are leaning towards a home win for Los Angeles against LA Galaxy.
Although LAFC has not won any of its last two derbies against its city rivals (one draw, one defeat), the Black and Gold are still favorites to win at home against LA Galaxy, as the Galácticos, led by top scorer Marco Reus, are currently going through a slump. The reigning MLS Cup champions have won only three of their 23 games in the Western Conference and are also the division’s whipping boys, having conceded 45 goals.
LA Galaxy’s temporary upturn in form has also come to an end after a strong run of three MLS games without defeat and seven points from a possible nine. On Wednesday night, the Galácticos lost 2-1 at home to Austin. Greg Vanney’s side thus remain bottom of the Major League Soccer Western Conference, while LAFC, who still have three games in hand due to the Club World Cup, are fourth in the table and well on course for a place in the playoffs.
Los Angeles – Statistics & current form
Los Angeles FC has been participating in Major League Soccer since 2018 and has already enjoyed considerable success in the top US league. The Black and Gold won the MLS Cup in 2022, the MLS Supporter’s Shield in 2019 and 2022, and the Lamar Hunt US Open Cup in 2024. They also have two Western Conference regular season titles and one playoff victory to their name.
Coach Steven Cherundolo’s side are currently on course for another strong finish. The club, which recently participated unsuccessfully in the expanded FIFA Club World Cup, picking up just one point out of a possible nine, has fallen behind in the MLS due to the Club World Cup, leaving them with three games in hand. If LAFC wins all three games, they will move to the top of the Western Conference table, currently seven points behind leaders San Diego.
Los Angeles has the best defense in the Western Conference
Admittedly, there was a 0-1 defeat against Vancouver in the first game, which took place just five days after the preliminary round exit from the Club World Cup. However, the Black and Gold won all of their subsequent three league games – and all without conceding a goal. Steven Cherundolo’s team is in good form going into the Los Angeles derby, in which the hosts are clear favorites despite a very even record.
Los Angeles against LA Galaxy is therefore a good bet, with LAFC likely to secure another important victory in the battle for first place with another three points. The Black and Gold not only have the best defense in the Western Conference, conceding just 24 goals in 20 MLS games, but they have also scored an impressive 36 goals.
Los Angeles’ expected line-up:
Lloris – Segura, Tafari, Palencia – Smoliakov, Delgado, Tillman, Holingshead – Bouanga, Ebobisse, Dilrosun
LA Galaxy – Statistics & current form
LA Galaxy is a founding member of Major League Soccer and has been participating in the most important American soccer league since its inaugural season in 1996 – with considerable success. In 2024, the MLS Cup was won for the sixth time. There have been four Supporter’s Shield titles, eight Western Conference regular season wins and ten playoff victories. In addition, they have won two Lamar Hunt US Open Cup titles and the CONCACAF Champions Cup in 2000.
However, things are currently far from smooth sailing for the Galácticos, at least in Major League Soccer. In the Western Conference, they have only managed to secure 15 points from 23 games, winning just three of those 23 league games (6 draws, 14 defeats). No wonder, then, that Greg Vanney’s team is the clear underdog in the 26th edition of “El Tráfico.” At Bet365, where new customers can also get up to €100 in betting credits with the Bet365 bonus, the odds for Los Angeles against LA Galaxy are 6.50 for a Galaxy derby win.
LA Galaxy struggles with conceding goals and squandering chances
However, there has been at least a slight upward trend at the club, where Marco Reus currently leads the internal scoring charts with five goals. All three of their wins this season have come in their last seven MLS games (two draws, two defeats), although the Galácticos continue to suffer from a lack of defensive stability. Greg Vanney’s men have kept a clean sheet only once in their last six MLS games. With 45 goals conceded, they are the Western Conference’s whipping boys.
Not only has the train to the playoffs already left the station, but the little momentum they had has also recently evaporated. After two wins in a row, Galaxy lost 2-1 to Austin on the last matchday, which sounds much closer than the game ultimately was, with Joseph Paintsil’s last-minute goal ultimately only correcting the score, although there was still a chance to equalize in the eleven minutes of added time, as evidenced by the expected goals value of 1.87. However, the fact that the Galácticos repeatedly fall short of their xG values is also a recurring theme throughout the season.
LA Galaxy’s expected lineup:
Micovic – Aude, Yoshida, Zanka, Yamane – Fagúndez, Cerrillo, Reus – Paintsil, Nasciemento, Pec
Los Angeles – LA Galaxy Head-to-head record
Head to head: 9 – 6 – 10
The so-called “El Tráfico” between the two MLS clubs from Los Angeles has already taken place 25 times, and the overall record is remarkably even. Most of the games between the two teams have been very close, with several last-minute goals deciding the outcome. LA Galaxy has come out on top in the most recent encounters. The Galácticos have not lost any of their last two games against LAFC (one win, one draw).
Los Angeles – LA Galaxy United Tip
Although “El Tráfico” has usually been a very close and evenly matched derby, this time around, the betting odds from the top bookmakers are clearly and unmistakably in favor of the Black and Gold when Los Angeles takes on LA Galaxy. No wonder, because while LAFC is in fourth place in the Western Conference despite having three games in hand and winning its last three MLS games by a total score of 6-0, the Galácticos are bottom of the table and have managed to pick up just 15 points from 23 games.
Accordingly, the prediction for a home win for the Black and Gold against LA Galaxy is a good bet, which would also end their two-game winless streak against their city rivals (one draw, one defeat). Once again, there could be plenty of goals in “El Tráfico.”