Will Lugano defeat the promoted team?

More and more leagues are kicking off the 2025/2026 season, and the sports schedule is filling up again on the weekends. This Friday, the Swiss Super League kicks off and we take a look at the match between Lugano and Thun, in which the betting providers’ predictions see the hosts with the advantage. If we trust the experts’ predictions, the race for the championship will come down to a duel between FC Basel and Young Boys from Bern.

But the black and whites are also expected to do well. Finishing fourth last year, we expect a similarly good performance this year. At least in the battle for international places, the men from Ticino are seen as being in a good position. For the opening game between Lugano and Thun, the tip is on the home side with odds of 1.65.

Lugano – Statistics & current form

FC Lugano celebrated its last major national success in 2022. This year, it won its fourth cup title. It also has three championships to its name, the last of which dates back to 1949. The Ticino side can certainly be expected to play a strong role in the league in the coming season.

Last season, the Black and Whites were long considered hot contenders for the title. Head coach Mattia Croci-Torti’s team was at the top of the table until matchday 21, but his side collapsed towards the end and had to settle for fourth place. In the end, the hosts finished nineteen points behind the champions from Basel.

Lugano off to a false start in the Europa League

The placement secured a spot in the qualifying round for the Europa League group stage. In the quarterfinals, they will face Romanian side Cluj. The Swiss side could only manage a 0-0 draw in the first leg. These are certainly not the best conditions for the trip to the Balkans for the second leg.

Will last season’s negative run come to an end?

Last season, only one of the last eight games were won. There was a 2-0 away win at FC Luzern. The aim is now to celebrate three points again at the start of the new season, and the bookmakers are quite optimistic. In the match between Lugano and Thun, odds of up to 1.65 are being offered for bets on the black and whites.

Last season, the Bianconeri had the weakest offense of all six teams in the Championship Group. They only found the back of the net 55 times. The team’s top scorer was Anto Grgic, who scored nine goals. The defense was also inconsistent. With 58 goals conceded, only Lucerne had to fish the ball out of their own net more often.

With only nine wins from nineteen games, the home side also lacked home strength, but they will be looking to make no mistake on their own turf against the newly promoted side.

Thun – Statistics & current form

Since being relegated in 2020, FC Thun has spent five years in the Challenge League. Last season, they finally made it back to the top flight, and the Red and Whites are entering the new season with a lot of enthusiasm. The aim here is to collect as many points as possible against relegation.

The second-highest Swiss league was dominated by the visitors last year. Head coach Lustrinelli’s team finished eleven points ahead of FC Aarau, who were subsequently relegated after failing to win their relegation play-off. They won 21 of their 36 league games and lost only six.

Thun shines with accuracy

With 70 goals scored, the Red and Whites had the most dangerous offense in the league. Leonardo Bertone was the top scorer for his team with nine goals. The experienced midfielder will remain with FCT for the next season and is expected to provide more reasons to celebrate.

The defense was also impressive, conceding only 39 goals, fewer than any other team in the Challenge League. In their last eight competitive games, the visitors were defeated only once, losing 2-1 to AC Bellinzona. In contrast, they kept five clean sheets and celebrated six victories in these encounters.

Will the artificial turf be an advantage?

FC Thun will once again be relying on its home strength in the coming season. On the artificial turf of their home Stockhorn Arena, the Red and Whites will use their advantage on a surface that is unfamiliar to other teams and will certainly be a difficult opponent.

But first, they travel to Ticino for their opening game. Last season, they picked up 30 points on the road, making them the second-best away team. In pre-season, Lustrinelli’s side showed that they are already in good shape, at least in attack. They found the back of the net 12 times in four games. Nevertheless, the Red and Whites are starting as underdogs.

Lugano – Thun Head-to-head record / H2H record

The two teams will meet for the 21st time in the Super League this weekend. The record of 6-7-7 is therefore almost even. Across all competitions, we have played 27 games, eight of which went to the black and whites and eleven to the team from the canton of Bern. For the upcoming match, the bookmakers’ predictions see the hosts with a clear advantage.

In the last five games, only once did the home team manage to secure the three points. The last encounter took place in the Swiss Cup, with FC Lugano winning 4-3 in Thun in a spectacular game. The last few matches have been high-scoring affairs, with at least three goals scored in three of the last four encounters.

Lugano – Thun Tip

The next league is about to start. The Swiss Super League kicks off on Friday evening. The final match will be played on Sunday between Lugano and FC Thun. These two teams have already met in the preseason, with the Red and Whites coming out on top 4-2, although we don’t attach too much importance to this encounter as there was a lot of experimentation going on.

Basically, the starting positions of the two teams are clear. The hosts want to build on last season’s successes and make up for their weak finish. For the men from the canton of Bern, on the other hand, the aim is to stay up after promotion and establish themselves in Switzerland’s top flight.

It is quite difficult to assess how well the teams will perform before the first match day. However, based on the results of the test matches, we expect to see a few goals. Therefore, our recommendation for the match between Lugano and Thun is to bet on more than 2.5 goals at odds of 1.57 with the tested bookmaker Interwetten.

Even though the test match went down the drain, we see the advantages in the three-way segment on the side of the home team, who have strengthened their offense with Kevin Behrend. Therefore, we are leaning towards a win for the black and whites in the match between Lugano and Thun, with odds of 1.65.