Will the DFB team struggle to get the next three points?
Next week, the German national soccer team will find out whether they will qualify directly for the 2026 World Cup in the USA, Canada, and Mexico, or whether they will have to take the arduous detour via the playoffs. If the DFB team wins the match against Luxembourg and Nagelsmann’s team then also prevails at home against their direct rivals from Slovakia, they will secure top spot in the group. Logically, two wins are also the goal for the 2014 World Cup champions, who have not exactly covered themselves in glory in the World Cup qualifiers so far.
After the surprising opening defeat in Slovakia, the team has at least managed to successfully complete its three mandatory tasks. However, the 1-0 win in Northern Ireland a month ago showed once again that the Germans are by no means brimming with confidence and have to stretch themselves to leave the field as winners, even against national teams that are considered to be significantly weaker in terms of quality.
Friday evening may also prove to be a test of patience, because although Luxembourg have lost all four of their qualifying games so far and have long since lost any chance of qualifying for next year’s major international tournament, it is unlikely to be a walk in the park.
Interestingly, Luxembourg have only conceded more than one goal in two of their last 14 international matches on home turf. This is one of the reasons why I am refraining from predicting a landslide victory for the German soccer team ahead of the Luxembourg vs. Germany match, as they have only scored more than once in two of their six matches since the Nations League Final Four in the summer.
Also interesting: In 19 of the last 23 international matches that the DFB team has played since the beginning of 2024, a maximum of four goals were scored. Due to the lack of ease within the team, the immense pressure to get three points, and the already rather critical mood towards the German team at the moment, there is little to suggest a glorious away performance with many offensive highlights. Instead, I recommend primarily betting on a solid victory for the visitors between Luxembourg and Germany.
Luxembourg – Germany Head-to-head record
The first leg a month ago was a clear-cut affair in favor of the Germans, who benefited greatly from the course of the game. David Raum gave Nagelsmann’s team an early lead (12th minute) before Dirk Carlson was sent off with a red card. Kimmich converted the resulting penalty to make it 2-0. After the break, Gnabry and Kimmich added two more goals to make it 4-0.
Given that Germany “only” managed a 4-0 win at home despite scoring early goals and having a 70-minute man advantage, I would be surprised if the betting odds of over 4.5 goals suddenly came true on Friday evening in Luxembourg against Germany. A 7-0 win, as was the case almost 20 years ago in the run-up to the 2006 World Cup in their own country, is almost completely out of the question. Especially considering that the DFB team might even save their energy for the final showdown against Slovakia if they take an early lead.
Luxembourg – Germany Tip
After four match days, the German national soccer team has regained the lead in Group A of the World Cup qualifiers. However, compared to the Slovaks, who are level on points, it is currently only the better goal difference that will decide whether they qualify directly or go into the playoffs. There are many indications that the final decision will only be made on Monday evening in the direct duel.
Before that, however, the DFB team faces a challenge in Luxembourg and does not want to show any weakness there. Whether it will be as easy as in the first leg remains to be seen. The underdog is clearly stronger at home than away, has conceded more than one goal in only two of its last 14 home internationals and, unlike in October, is not expected to be outnumbered for long periods this time around.
Due to their superior quality, I expect coach Julian Nagelsmann’s team to win away, but it is unlikely to be a landslide victory. My preferred betting option is therefore to combine a tip for an away win with under 4.5 goals between Luxembourg and Germany. Bet-at-home offers odds of 1.62 at the top.
