Will Luxembourg cause the first surprise of the World Cup qualifiers?
In eight months, on June 11, 2026, to be precise, the 2026 FIFA World Cup will kick off. For the first time in history, the tournament will be hosted by three countries – Canada, Mexico, and the USA will share the premiere. The location and time have already been decided – but what about the participants? Ten other nations have already joined the three hosts: Uzbekistan, Iran, South Korea, Jordan, Japan, Argentina, Ecuador, Brazil, Australia, and New Zealand. This means that 13 of the 48 places have already been allocated. In Europe, the allocation of starting places is still ongoing, including in Group A with Germany, Northern Ireland, Slovakia, and Luxembourg. On the first match day, the two underdogs will face each other directly, which is also reflected in the odds for Luxembourg and Northern Ireland to win the group (13.00 & 67.00).
But that’s exactly what makes the match so exciting: whoever wins here will retain their chance of participating in the World Cup. Direct qualification seems out of reach, as Germany is too strong for that. So the realistic route remains via the playoffs. And even if Slovakia claims second place, they are by no means unbeatable for either nation. The opening game could therefore be decisive for both countries. The Northern Irish have slightly better chances of winning, as with a squad value of €86.05 million, the visitors are simply much better equipped individually. Jeff Strasser, coach of the Luxembourg team, can only draw on a squad worth €53.63 million. This already indicates an initial trend.
Furthermore, the 2024/2025 Nations League also showed who is likely to come out on top here. Both nations played in League C and even in the same group. The outcome of the group stage could hardly have been more different, as the “Green and White Army” secured the group victory and thus promotion, while Luxembourg slipped into the relegation playoffs without a win.
There, Jeff Strasser’s team will fight to stay in the league in March 2026. In the worst case, the Luxembourg team will be relegated to League D. At first glance, the Luxembourg vs. Northern Ireland tip seems to be quite interesting for a victory for the visiting team.
Luxembourg – Northern Ireland Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The head-to-head comparison confirms our previous findings. Northern Ireland won four of the seven matches and only lost once. Furthermore, their only defeat to date was over twelve years ago and is unlikely to be relevant for the upcoming match. In addition, the two nations met twice in 2025, just under a year ago. The two matches ended 2-2 and 0-2 from Luxembourg’s perspective. It is therefore quite realistic to expect the visitors to gain a point. No wonder, then, that the Luxembourg vs. Northern Ireland betting odds favor an away win. The maximum odds for a win by the visiting team are “only” 2.27.
Luxembourg – Northern Ireland Tip
Taking all of the above facts into account, we have decided on a Luxembourg vs. Northern Ireland betting tip for the visiting team to win a point in combination with over 1.5 goals. This is primarily because we consider a home win to be very unlikely.
The Luxembourg team is significantly weaker individually and has rarely been convincing in direct comparisons. The last two matches confirm this. On the other hand, we can well imagine the home team scoring a goal, as Jeff Strasser’s team has never failed to score against Northern Ireland in their own stadium.
Alternatively, you can also add the Luxembourg vs. Northern Ireland odds for “both teams to score – yes” to your betting slip. As already mentioned, we consider a goal from the home side to be realistic. This is also shown by the previous encounters between the two teams. In the four home games against Northern Ireland, Luxembourg has never failed to score. The best odds for this tip are currently available at Betano.
